Quote from AAAintheBeltway:
There are three foreseeable future scenarios. One, we have to live in a world with numerous dangerous small countries like N. Korea that will use nuclear weapons for blackmail and aggression and which will arm terrorists that are likely to strike us anonymously with these same weapons.
Two, we face an even bleaker world with major regional nuclear wars, think India/Pakistan, N. Korea/Japan, China/Taiwan, Israel/Iraq/Syria/Iran, etc.
Three, somehow we are able to forestall or prevent the above two scenarios through aggressive, preemptive action to defang potential aggressors and proliferators.
If you object to scenario 3, it is incumbent on you to demonstrate how we avoid scenarios 1 or 2.
Good post. Tough questions. Wish I had real workable answers. But right now, no one can say they do with real certainty. Only opinions now. If there were answers, the questions would be irrelevant.
First scenario......hard to imagine a "small country" with nuclear capability supplying terrorists with nukes. What is the upside for these countries in such a deal? Certainly not financial gain. Clearly we could be blackmailed....and we could pay a lot more than any terrorist group. Blackmail wouldn't even be necessary. In all likelihood, we will eventually just buy our way out of the N. Korea mess anyway. Just as we essentially have with Russia and China. So I think it unlikely that this part of scenario #1 (arming terrorists) is of real concern. Makes for good movies and book plots though.
Second scenario....these types of conflicts hopefully will be avoided by the very thinking that prevented the US and USSR from engaging in a nuclear war. Mutually assured destruction. Of course, this may prevent an India vs. Pakistan war. Or a China/
Taiwan, or Korea/Japan. Or even Israel/Syria (or take your pick on an arab state).
But when you mentioned in scenario #2, Israel/Iraq, then the line blurs between #2 and #3. For certainly we cannot expect a healthy fear and a healthy survival instinct to come into play with Saddam. Here, we have no choice but to "defang" this potential aggressor. While it is clear that a preemptive "war" is not only an unpopular concept (for most....I know Dubya is chomping at the bit), there is certainly justification for considering such action. But I, like most who object to a war right now with Iraq, feel Iraq right now does not yet pose a clear and present danger. As is required by our own constitution to justify war.
But certainly, as we have seen since 9/11, we need to play by different rules. We need to be more ruthless in our defense of our way of life. The protection of our freedoms.
So we need to find that middle ground. We need to "preemptively" eliminate the threat that will surely come to pass if we do nothing about Saddam. But a ground war right now seems morally and legally wrong.
No doubt, to do things the way I think they should be done would require breaking some of our "laws" as they exist right now. But laws can be changed. And quickly in times of national crisis, as we have seen. Even without changing laws, since our administration seems willing to break constitutional law, they should have little problem just breaking lesser laws. Just like they used to. (not this administration necessarily...I mean historically).
The CIA had it's successes and it's failures in the "elimination" of unfriendly leaders. We (the public) don't know who, when and what they did. But we do know a little. We know they pulled off a coup in Vietnam, they attempted to assassinate Castro, and they were behind the Bay of Pigs debacle. And likely behind the killing of Lumumba, and other communist leaders and revolutionaries in Africa and South America. (Who killed Che?)
Seems with a little help from Mossad (for intelligence) and all our sophisticated weaponry and observational equipment, getting Saddam, while not an easy task, should certainly not be impossible. Why endanger 100k American troops, and millions of Iraqi citizens to get one guy?
Daniel_M will do the job if given the chance. Even peace loving old me would give it a shot if they gave me the training and the opportunity. To me, this is like getting a shot at Hitler before he implemented his master plan. We need to do it. I believe it can be done with brains and not overwhelming force. It is 2003. What have we spent so much of our defense budget on if we can't get this one guy? (Of course this brings up the Bin Laden question). Gotta admit, there is something very wrong with what we are being told. But nonetheless, there has to be a way to depose this maniac Saddam before he gets his 9/11 event. It will be far worse than what Al Qaeda did. Iraq is a country. Not an organization of lunatics living in caves and learning to fly at little private flight schools and with Microsoft Flight Simulator. They have an army, an air force and an arsenal. Some of it obtained from us. (At least we know how to deal with our own weapons when turned on us). And the French and Russian equipment they have is also well known to us. But still, 100% kill rates are not realistic. We do have to preempt whatever is in store for us.
I am against a war with Iraq. I am for eliminating Saddam. But I will say I am getting pretty sick of the protesters (and in a way, I guess I am a protester...thus far) saying it is about OIL. That is a crock. If we wanted to "steal Iraq's oil" why did we not do it last time? The oil issue makes for an easy anti war argument, but it just isn't what it is about.
Peace (after we accomplish what we must),
rs7
