Scientists propose a 50 days on, 30 days off coronavirus lockdown strategy

[gwb-trading]

The spread rate for TB varis. I gave you the chart. Here is the link to the first study which comes up. It says the spread rate in US was found to be .55. That is why testing and tracing can work here.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6092233/

If you are going to support science and data when it helps the doom cause and then deny when I present it....

You really do argue like jello.

Get us a few studies show the TB spread rate in the US is 2.0 and provide the links.

When you have a virus where 50 percent of the people are asymptomatic testing and tracing will be quickly overwhelmed in a good size city if the spread rate is high.

Its basically math. Now... some cities and some places are working on new tech driven techniques... but again... the spread rate would still have to be very low with a virus in which 50 percent of the people can spread it an not even know they have it.

Its basic math.

I can't believe you keep arguing.
You seem to think testing and tracing has some magical properties.
its math and its limited by the reality that human tracing does not really work works an infectious person goes on a subway and walks around a crowded city at lunch.

The effective reproduction rate (R) with mitigation of TB varies by location. The Rnaught rate of TB with no mitigation is 2. The Rnaught rate of COVID-19 is at least 2. The R rate of COVID-19 in Germany is 0.8 or below currently.

You are, once again, confusing the raw reproduction rate (Rnaught) with the effective Reproduction rate (R) with mitigation.

TB is controlled both inside the U.S. and outside the U.S. in places with a higher R rate with lockdowns as needed, individual isolation, contact tracing and testing. It is effective for TB and it is the proper path for COVID-19.

 

[jem]

I am not playing that game.. I am not confusing anything..
I gave you a link to a study... which stated...

.
Quantifying TB transmission: a systematic review of reproduction number and serial interval estimates for tuberculosis

So fuck off with your nomenclature game.... I am not confusing anything.
I am doing my best to avoid letting you play your bullshit experts confuse the terminology game.


you can either come back with links and science in the US. or shut up and admit you just bullshit you ass off instead of linking to science.

The effective reproduction rate (R) with mitigation of TB varies by location. The Rnaught rate of TB with no mitigation is 2. The Rnaught rate of COVID-19 is at least 2. The R rate of COVID-19 in Germany is 0.8 or below currently.

You are, once again, confusing the raw reproduction rate (Rnaught) with the effective Reproduction rate (R) with mitigation.

TB is controlled both inside the U.S. and outside the U.S. in places with a higher R rate with lockdowns as needed, individual isolation, contact tracing and testing. It is effective for TB and it is the proper path for COVID-19.

 

[gwb-trading]

I am not playing that game.. I am not confusing anything..
I gave you a link to a study... which uses the terms transmission rates..

So fuck off with your nomenclature game.... I am not confusing anything.
I am doing my best to avoid letting you play your bullshit experts confuse terminology game.


you can either come back with links and science in the US. or shut up and admit you just bullshit you ass off instead of linking to science.

I have provided the science . Go read it, educate yourself and stop being confused.

 

[jem]

Well today you said Covid is at least 2.
A few weeks ago you were telling us it was 4.

so... yeah I read your "science" its bullshit based on doomer bullshit.

I have provided the science . Go read it, educate yourself and stop being confused.

 

[gwb-trading]

Well today you said Covid is at least 2.
A few weeks ago you were telling us it was 4.

so... yeah I read your "science" its bullshit based on doomer bullshit.

I stated the minimum estimate for COVID-19 was 2. Most estimates have it as 2 to 3. Some papers have it as 4.2 to 6.8.

The exact final Rnaught number for COVID-19 will not be known until the pandemic runs its first wave course. and studies are completed. Keep in mind that usually the initial Rnaught numbers are revised up after the studies like it was for SARS.

 

[jem]

exactly my point...
you have been bullshiting your ass off declaring numbers from models as if they are real.
.

I stated the minimum estimate for COVID-19 was 2. Most estimates have it as 2 to 3. Some papers have it as 4.2 to 6.8.

The exact final Rnaught number for COVID-19 will not be known until the pandemic runs its first wave course. and studies are completed. Keep in mind that usually the initial Rnaught numbers are revised up after the studies like it was for SARS.

 

[gwb-trading]

exactly my point...
you have been bullshiting your ass off declaring numbers from models as if they are real.
.

Go read what I stated earlier on this thread again...

"The Rnaught rate for TB is around 2.0. This is similar for most low-end estimates for COVID-19."

 

[jem]

preserved...

I stated the minimum estimate for COVID-19 was 2. Most estimates have it as 2 to 3. Some papers have it as 4.2 to 6.8.

The exact final Rnaught number for COVID-19 will not be known until the pandemic runs its first wave course. and studies are completed. Keep in mind that usually the initial Rnaught numbers are revised up after the studies like it was for SARS.