Scientists propose a 50 days on, 30 days off coronavirus lockdown strategy

[Cuddles]

I get you your new argument.
It is irrelevant now, as it would have been non responsive then.

I will respond to it as I have in the past.

We explain to you almost daily.. the lock down does not prevent people from catching the virus.
its just puts the date off when they catch it.
They will catch it when they return out of lock down because the lockdown we have does not extinguish the virus.

your argument is a stupid argument unless you think the vaccine is on its way before we have to let the low risk group out.

so we can't avoid the spread of the virus... it will happen just like in Sweden.
What we need to do isolate the high risk group.

I accept your backpedal and counter with the fact that we've extinguished more than one virus by utilizing similar methods in the past (in addition to vaccination). Granted, extinction is not the primary purpose to begin with, postponement is (as you slowly start to come to that realization).

 

[Bugenhagen]

They just keep saying the same dumb stuff over and over.

I think the Turing test is broken.

 

[jem]

its not a backpedal... part of it was contained in the post you responded to.
I stated that the way we were locking down was not going to extinguish this virus... in the very posted you responded to.

my post had pre-addressed your new argument.

I accept your backpedal and counter with the fact that we've extinguished more than one virus by utilizing similar methods in the past (in addition to vaccination). Granted, extinction is not the primary purpose to begin with.

 

[jem]

you see... I said this lockdown is not going to extinguish the virus.

You don't have to be a scientist to realize a lockdown like we had/have will not extinguish the virus. (that is why is was so dumb to isolate the low risk groups once hospitals became empty.

and you don't have to be a scientist to know that if every single person isolated the virus might go away. (Unless it really is transmitted by animals to humans.)

The problem is... the later can't be done.

 

[gwb-trading]

I get you your new argument.
It is irrelevant now, as it would have been non responsive then.

I will respond to it as I have in the past.

We explain to you almost daily.. the lock down does not prevent people from catching the virus.
its just puts the date off when they catch it.
They will catch it when they return out of lock down because the lockdown we have does not extinguish the virus.

your argument is a stupid argument unless you think the vaccine is on its way before we have to let the low risk group out.

so we can't avoid the spread of the virus... it will happen just like in Sweden.
What we need to do isolate the high risk group.

The lockdown DOES prevent people from catching the virus. First let's review the 5 points of why a lock-down period is necessary again:

1) To prevent the overloading of hospital resources - where the number of COVID-19 patients is greater than capacity to treat them.
2) To provide time to obtain the necessary number of COVID-19 test kits and get a testing process in place to meet the necessary capacity for re-opening.
3) To get proper Contact Tracing in place for COVID-19 prior to re-opening. This includes getting the necessary systems in place and getting people hired for the positions.
4) To reduce the effective infection rate (R) to below 0.8 in a community before opening.
5) To reduce the total number of infections in the community to reduce the number of vector starting points when re-opening that must be traced and quarantined.

The entire concept of the strategy is to stop a novel pandemic from spreading though the community when the lockdown ends. This is done by reducing the total number of infections in the community to a low number and reducing the effective infection rate (R) to below 0.8. If either of these measures increase above a designated threshold then you lockdown or take mitigation measures again. Just like Germany did recently. Yes, the intent is very much to "extinguish the virus" in a community -- as much as possible.

People will not catch a disease when they come out of lockdown - the entire intent of the policy is to try to ensure they don't get the disease when they come out of lockdown. The intent is not to "put the date off when they catch it". The intent is to minimize the number of people who get sick.

These type of mitigation measures -- including cycling in & out of lockdown -- will be kept in place on a community or state basis until a vaccine is developed. Just like it was for polio in the 1940s and early 1950s in the U.S.

 

[jem]

we have already shown your post to be bullshit numerous times.


As I have told you if you do the math... or listen to the experts Testing and tracing only works with a low spread rate.
If there is a low spread rate there is no reason to lock down the low risk group.

We also know you are just making shit up... because Fauci and your doomer team warn of a second wave. Governor Newsome warns of a third wave.
They warn of these waves because the entire concept of extinguishing the virus will not be accomplished by lockdown... only by antibodies if we can develop nature immunity or a vaccine.

Finally your ideas are foolish because we never fully locked down.
We were just shifting contagion a bit in time. That is why we were flattening the ramp. Not cutting it off.

Go back and read what your team wrote about the ramp and why were doing it. It was to save hospital beds (basically)

Nobody said the shutdown was designed to make the virus go away.

In short what you wrote was a pile of detritus you pulled from your doomer brain or some other doomers post facto bullshit.

The lockdown DOES prevent people from catching the virus. First let's review the 5 points of why a lock-down period is necessary again:

1) To prevent the overloading of hospital resources - where the number of COVID-19 patients is greater than capacity to treat them.
2) To provide time to obtain the necessary number of COVID-19 test kits and get a testing process in place to meet the necessary capacity for re-opening.
3) To get proper Contact Tracing in place for COVID-19 prior to re-opening. This includes getting the necessary systems in place and getting people hired for the positions.
4) To reduce the effective infection rate (R) to below 0.8 in a community before opening.
5) To reduce the total number of infections in the community to reduce the number of vector starting points when re-opening that must be traced and quarantined.

The entire concept of the strategy is to stop a novel pandemic from spreading though the community when the lockdown ends. This is done by reducing the total number of infections in the community to a low number and reducing the effective infection rate (R) to below 0.8. If either of these measures increase above a designated threshold then you lockdown or take mitigation measures again. Just like Germany did recently. Yes, the intent is very much to "extinguish the virus" in a community -- as much as possible.

People will not catch a disease when they come out of lockdown - the entire intent of the policy is to try to ensure they don't get the disease when they come out of lockdown. The intent is not to "put the date off when they catch it". The intent is to minimize the number of people who get sick.

These type of mitigation measures -- including cycling in & out of lockdown -- will be kept in place on a community or state basis until a vaccine is developed. Just like it was for polio in the 1940s and early 1950s in the U.S.

 

[Overnight]

All this bantering back-and-forth, and spitballing each other...Guys, come on.

The "at-risk" group means at risk of death.

There is not an "at-risk" group for infection. Everyone can and will get it, eventually. A young whipper-snapper is at no less of a risk to get infected than a 100-YO. Take that as a given. It is not like someone who is young cannot contract it, while someone who is old can. We all breathe the same air, and we all have the same physiological makeup. (Well, except Magna. He's the HAL9000.)

What we need, yesterday, is the antibody tests. STAT. THAT is the test we need everyone to get RIGHT NOW.

Testing testing testing. The fack!

Let us say you are clean and have no virus, just a sore-throat. Allergies, or some bile or whatever. You can go to the COVID testing site, get tested, and 24 hours later you will get the results they say. Fine. Great! On the way home, you go to the local store to get whatever, and you contract the virus. That night you spread the thing to everyone in your circle like a leper.

The next morning you wake up to the phone call from the testing lab. "Great news! You tested negative for the virus!"

WHEEE! Then let me go out and be freeeeee! (And inadvertentlyspreadthevirustomorepeoplethanyoucanimaginebecauseyoutestednegativethankyouverymuch.)

Bollocks I tell you. Antibody-testing or bust.
And so...umm?

 

[smallfil]

With a large portion of the 81% who support the process making as much or more than they were making while working I'm sure they are content to sit and wait. We'll see what the polling looks like when/if the government tit dries up. They might not be all that enthusiastic at that point and everyone is in for a serious bitch slap when the bill comes due for all of this and that is something we haven't even seen a glimpse of yet, but it's coming. No way around it. Loss of tax revenue is going to bankrupt hundreds if not thousands of local municipalities, and states...it ain't gonna be pretty.

The good thing about it is those are extreme liberal states run by Democrat governors. They can raise taxes thru the noses of their extreme liberal Democrat voters. Funny, a lot of Democrats say they would love to pay higher taxes until, the day comes that higher taxes are imposed on them and they have to actually, pay more taxes out of their own pockets? Most of them are fine with higher and higher taxes as long as it is the other guys paying for it. Watch these guys whine and cry as higher taxes are imposed on their asses. Remember when they capped the mortgage interest when we had the tax cuts? It was the extreme liberal, filthy rich crowd who was whining and crying over paying more taxes? Yet, they claim the tax cuts were a giveaway to the very rich like themselves? Ha ha ha! "As usual, do as I say, not as I do."

 

[gwb-trading]

we have already shown your post to be bullshit numerous times.


As I have told you if you do the math... or listen to the experts Testing and tracing only works with a low spread rate.
If there is a low spread rate there is no reason to lock down the low risk group.

We also know you are just making shit up... because Fauci and your doomer team warn of a second wave. Governor Newsome warns of a third wave.
They warn of these waves because the entire concept of extinguishing the virus will not be accomplished by lockdown... only by antibodies if we can develop nature immunity or a vaccine.

Finally your ideas are foolish because we never fully locked down.
We were just shifting contagion a bit in time. That is why we were flattening the ramp. Not cutting it off.

Go back and read what your team wrote about the ramp and why were doing it. It was to save hospital beds (basically)

Nobody said the shutdown was designed to make the virus go away.

In short what you wrote was a pile of detritus you pulled from your doomer brain or some other doomers post facto bullshit.

The Rnaught rate for TB is around 2.0. This is similar for most low-end estimates for COVID-19. Both are considered highly infectious diseases. Efforts to eliminate TB in communities are very successful due to testing and tracing.

Your claim that "testing and tracing only works with a low spread rate" is absurd. There are multiple examples of tracing and tracking working to eliminate highly infectious diseases in a community. How do you think the world got rid of the SARS epidemic. By catching it early, locking down highly infect areas, isolating individuals who were exposed, and tracing & testing.

At this point you need to get used to the new normal across most of the world for COVID-19 which includes lockdown cycles, testing and contact tracing to minimize disease breakouts. This will be in place until a vaccine is widely distributed. There will also be many countries with a 14 day quarantine when you travel to them in this global era.

The five purposes of a lockdown are very clear --- the strategy for re-opening in phases when facing a novel pandemic has already been proven historically with highly infectious diseases. The only difference today is the prevalence of fast global travel which makes containing a disease to a state or region more difficult.

 

[jem]

The spread rate for TB varis. I gave you the chart. Here is the link to the first study which comes up. It says the spread rate in US was found to be .55. That is why testing and tracing can work here.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6092233/

If you are going to support science and data when it helps the doom cause and then deny when I present it....

You really do argue like jello.

Get us a few studies show the TB spread rate in the US is 2.0 and provide the links.

When you have a virus where 50 percent of the people are asymptomatic testing and tracing will be quickly overwhelmed in a good size city if the spread rate is high.

Its basically math. Now... some cities and some places are working on new tech driven techniques... but again... the spread rate would still have to be very low with a virus in which 50 percent of the people can spread it an not even know they have it.

Its basic math.

I can't believe you keep arguing.
You seem to think testing and tracing has some magical properties.
its math and its limited by the reality that human tracing does not really work works an infectious person goes on a subway and walks around a crowded city at lunch.

The Rnaught rate for TB is around 2.0. This is similar for most low-end estimates for COVID-19. Both are considered highly infectious diseases. Efforts to eliminate TB in communities are very successful due to testing and tracing.

Your claim that "testing and tracing only works with a low spread rate" is absurd. There are multiple examples of tracing and tracking working to eliminate highly infectious diseases in a community. How do you think the world got rid of the SARS epidemic. By catching it early, locking down highly infect areas, isolating individuals who were exposed, and tracing & testing.

At this point you need to get used to the new normal across most of the world for COVID-19 which includes lockdown cycles, testing and contact tracing to minimize disease breakouts. This will be in place until a vaccine is widely distributed. There will also be many countries with a 14 day quarantine when you travel to them in this global era.

The five purposes of a lockdown are very clear --- the strategy for re-opening in phases when facing a novel pandemic has already been proven historically with highly infectious diseases. The only difference today is the prevalence of fast global travel which makes containing a disease to a state or region more difficult.