There are patterns in the market IF you look. Sequence analysis and cyclical mathematics are an important tool in my trading. I guess I qualify with a PhD in number theory from MIT to talk about this but I don't think it is a must have requirement. This link explains some of the sequence analysis http://www.tsing.com/theory/lesson25.htm and this paper has shown me alot too Numerological Analysis of the US Stock Market
(c) Michael J. Henry
With thanks to Bob Bronson for inspiring me to start researching numerology.
It appears to me that the stock market has both some binary and fibonacci
properties, but properly speaking, you could say that fibonacci also
includes
some binary properties. Prechters decision to give the EWT wave forms and
counting primary importance, blinded him, I can see in retrospect, to the
more important (according to Gann) time periods. It is hard for anyone to
deny upon examination, the fibonacci time periods that appear vividly over
the history of the US stock market. Also, I find cases of Prechter's wave
labelling that strikes me as patently ridiculous, such as labelling a 1965
as
the top, with a smallish dip being counted as a wave A, followed by a
higher
wave B which conforms with the whole previous uptrend, followed by a big C
wave down. According to Gann, bull markets are best measured from the
bottom
of the previous bear market, and bear markets are best measured from the
peak
of the previous bull market. The fifth wave dip in 1965, would have,
according to Gann, been interpreted as a warning that a major change in
trend
would soon be developing, but not have been divided into an additional 2
wave
formations.
Even in 1978, with wave forms and trying to fit counts, Prechter lost sight
of the over-riding importance of time periods. He was estimating that a
millenium cycle and super cycle stock top was due around 1983. Now I could
have probably told him to consider the last year of the millenium, 2000,
would be a good place to look for the end of his supposed millenium cycle.
Numerologically, lets look at two important fibo numbers. The 5th
sequential
fibo number and the 12th sequential fibo number. Both Gann and Bucky
Fuller
considered 9 also important in numerological analysis, though Bucky didn't
do
market analysis, but provided a good long term history of mathematics and
analysis of number systems that Nature probably uses, where he speculated
that perhaps base 12 was Nature's number system.
Brief look at a small sample of fibo numbers:
sequence:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12
fibo:
1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55
89 144
The fifth sequential fibo number is 5 itself and divides the numbers in
half
- 4 larger digits, 4 smaller digits. The 12th sequential fibo number is 12
squared. Prechter says that 144 is the count of waves making a complete
cycle (if he knew how to count waves properly, it might turn out to be of
use
- I am not at all convinced of his wave pattern and counting schemes). 12
is
also important to Gann with his master 12 chart. 12 is the number of
months
bringing us to a completion and start of a new year. 12 is the number of
signs, the numbers on the clock, the number of apostles, the number of
tribes
of Israel, etc., etc. The twelfth fibo squared (144 squared) is 20,736.
Seven is the "death" number and the seventh fibo number is 13, supposedly
an
unlucky number as carried over historically where in the US and Europe at
least, we often find building floors numbered 11,12,14,.... skipping that
unlucky number as people don't want to be located on the 13th floor.
For numerological analysis of time periods, I am using 3 different year
periods for 3 types of analysis: 1) For fibonacci analysis of US stocks,
the
Calendar year from Jan 1 to Dec 31, 2) For the US spiral chart, (born
July
4, 1776) the US year is July 4 to July 3, and 3) For the US stock market
spiral chart, (the New York stock market was born, incorporated, on May 17,
1792) US Stock year is from May 17 to May 16. All spiral chart analysis
begins with zero, the date of birth, and counts on from there.
Some fibo numerology:
Probably the most significant US stock market event was the 1929-1932 drop
in
stocks from the 1929 Dow high of 386 to the 1932 Dow low of 41, lasting 3
years. Dividing the time before and the time after by this event leaves 4
*
34 Calendar year periods before and if 2000, the last year of the
millenium,
marks the top, 2 * 34 Calendar year periods after this event, adding up to
a
total of 207 years since incorporation in 1792, using calendar years in
this
example. We certainly see major 34 year periods in operation after the
major
US stock market crash bottom in 1932. From 1932 low to 1966 high is 34
years. Prior to 1929, I have not analyzed the fit of what measures out to
be
four 34 year periods due to having only a rough graph as my data for those
time periods from 1792 to 1929. From 1932 + fibo 5 reaches 1937 + fibo 5
reaches 1942... From 1966 to 1987 top & crash is fibo 21, from 1974 to
1987
is fibo 13. From 1987 to 2000 is fibo 13. Does the mean that 2000 has to
be
THE top? No, but it will be a major top.
In the U.S. (nation) spiral chart, the 224th year would land on a 45 degree
angle of the fourth quadrant, on the seventh level (seventh spiral out from
the center, seven being a death number) - if landing on that angle is the
point of resistance, that would start July 4, 2000 and run to July 3, 2001.
The 1987 stock crash occured on the 45 degree angle of the 3rd quadrant on
the seventh level, or 210 years after the birth of the US. 1987 is also
measured as (fibo) 55 years after the 1932 bottom, and we know to measure
bulls from the bottom of the previous bear bottom. I think that I label
quadrants differently than Gann - his drawn examples are scarce. I don't
think that Gann was into fibo numbers, but I see many examples where he
points out what is a fibo number important number of years as being very
significant for a commodity, such as 13 years for cotton.
1776 + 144 fibo years marks 1921 as supposedly a period of completion and
the
start of the 1920's bull market - that falls on the 6th spiral level 45
degree angle of the 2nd quadrant. 1973 lands on the 196th year of the 7th
spiral 45 degree angle of the 2nd quadrant - a supposed K-wave peak. 1980,
the peak in Gold and Silver and challenge to the US paper money system lies
on the 90 degree angle between 2nd and 3rd quadrants, seventh spiral level.
(continued on another post to keep the size reasonable, give time to chew
and
digest, etc)
(c) Michael J. Henry
With thanks to Bob Bronson for inspiring me to start researching numerology.
It appears to me that the stock market has both some binary and fibonacci
properties, but properly speaking, you could say that fibonacci also
includes
some binary properties. Prechters decision to give the EWT wave forms and
counting primary importance, blinded him, I can see in retrospect, to the
more important (according to Gann) time periods. It is hard for anyone to
deny upon examination, the fibonacci time periods that appear vividly over
the history of the US stock market. Also, I find cases of Prechter's wave
labelling that strikes me as patently ridiculous, such as labelling a 1965
as
the top, with a smallish dip being counted as a wave A, followed by a
higher
wave B which conforms with the whole previous uptrend, followed by a big C
wave down. According to Gann, bull markets are best measured from the
bottom
of the previous bear market, and bear markets are best measured from the
peak
of the previous bull market. The fifth wave dip in 1965, would have,
according to Gann, been interpreted as a warning that a major change in
trend
would soon be developing, but not have been divided into an additional 2
wave
formations.
Even in 1978, with wave forms and trying to fit counts, Prechter lost sight
of the over-riding importance of time periods. He was estimating that a
millenium cycle and super cycle stock top was due around 1983. Now I could
have probably told him to consider the last year of the millenium, 2000,
would be a good place to look for the end of his supposed millenium cycle.
Numerologically, lets look at two important fibo numbers. The 5th
sequential
fibo number and the 12th sequential fibo number. Both Gann and Bucky
Fuller
considered 9 also important in numerological analysis, though Bucky didn't
do
market analysis, but provided a good long term history of mathematics and
analysis of number systems that Nature probably uses, where he speculated
that perhaps base 12 was Nature's number system.
Brief look at a small sample of fibo numbers:
sequence:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12
fibo:
1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55
89 144
The fifth sequential fibo number is 5 itself and divides the numbers in
half
- 4 larger digits, 4 smaller digits. The 12th sequential fibo number is 12
squared. Prechter says that 144 is the count of waves making a complete
cycle (if he knew how to count waves properly, it might turn out to be of
use
- I am not at all convinced of his wave pattern and counting schemes). 12
is
also important to Gann with his master 12 chart. 12 is the number of
months
bringing us to a completion and start of a new year. 12 is the number of
signs, the numbers on the clock, the number of apostles, the number of
tribes
of Israel, etc., etc. The twelfth fibo squared (144 squared) is 20,736.
Seven is the "death" number and the seventh fibo number is 13, supposedly
an
unlucky number as carried over historically where in the US and Europe at
least, we often find building floors numbered 11,12,14,.... skipping that
unlucky number as people don't want to be located on the 13th floor.
For numerological analysis of time periods, I am using 3 different year
periods for 3 types of analysis: 1) For fibonacci analysis of US stocks,
the
Calendar year from Jan 1 to Dec 31, 2) For the US spiral chart, (born
July
4, 1776) the US year is July 4 to July 3, and 3) For the US stock market
spiral chart, (the New York stock market was born, incorporated, on May 17,
1792) US Stock year is from May 17 to May 16. All spiral chart analysis
begins with zero, the date of birth, and counts on from there.
Some fibo numerology:
Probably the most significant US stock market event was the 1929-1932 drop
in
stocks from the 1929 Dow high of 386 to the 1932 Dow low of 41, lasting 3
years. Dividing the time before and the time after by this event leaves 4
*
34 Calendar year periods before and if 2000, the last year of the
millenium,
marks the top, 2 * 34 Calendar year periods after this event, adding up to
a
total of 207 years since incorporation in 1792, using calendar years in
this
example. We certainly see major 34 year periods in operation after the
major
US stock market crash bottom in 1932. From 1932 low to 1966 high is 34
years. Prior to 1929, I have not analyzed the fit of what measures out to
be
four 34 year periods due to having only a rough graph as my data for those
time periods from 1792 to 1929. From 1932 + fibo 5 reaches 1937 + fibo 5
reaches 1942... From 1966 to 1987 top & crash is fibo 21, from 1974 to
1987
is fibo 13. From 1987 to 2000 is fibo 13. Does the mean that 2000 has to
be
THE top? No, but it will be a major top.
In the U.S. (nation) spiral chart, the 224th year would land on a 45 degree
angle of the fourth quadrant, on the seventh level (seventh spiral out from
the center, seven being a death number) - if landing on that angle is the
point of resistance, that would start July 4, 2000 and run to July 3, 2001.
The 1987 stock crash occured on the 45 degree angle of the 3rd quadrant on
the seventh level, or 210 years after the birth of the US. 1987 is also
measured as (fibo) 55 years after the 1932 bottom, and we know to measure
bulls from the bottom of the previous bear bottom. I think that I label
quadrants differently than Gann - his drawn examples are scarce. I don't
think that Gann was into fibo numbers, but I see many examples where he
points out what is a fibo number important number of years as being very
significant for a commodity, such as 13 years for cotton.
1776 + 144 fibo years marks 1921 as supposedly a period of completion and
the
start of the 1920's bull market - that falls on the 6th spiral level 45
degree angle of the 2nd quadrant. 1973 lands on the 196th year of the 7th
spiral 45 degree angle of the 2nd quadrant - a supposed K-wave peak. 1980,
the peak in Gold and Silver and challenge to the US paper money system lies
on the 90 degree angle between 2nd and 3rd quadrants, seventh spiral level.
(continued on another post to keep the size reasonable, give time to chew
and
digest, etc)
Quote from Saynt Chaosity:
bs.