Science Advancements on trading

[alesanti]

Quote from alesanti:

What I don't understand is why people think that polarized way: predicting the markets is impossible because "there is no free lunch" or there is no "holy grail". In science, whenever you measure something you have to express the error that must always accompany the measurement. Analogously, if you say "I predict the price", surely you are not telling exactly the price, but the price within some error. Error that could vary in time.
The only way to show results in market prediction is to express some average degree of accuracy.
That level of accuracy should be enough to generate profitable trades systematically.
It may be impossible predict prices precisely, but it is not impossible predict prices profitably.

eusdaiki, I agree with your word of caution, but there could be free lunches:

To ilustrate my point, this prediction, computed today at
9:30 ET

Is far from perfect. Anyway it generated 2 trades:

SP500
Date Type Target Gain Entry Time Exit Time Entry Value Exit Value P&L Cumm. P&L
07/27/2006 Long 5.64 10:15 11:35 1272.24 1273.25 1.01 1.01
07/27/2006 Short 6.19 11:35 15:15 1273.25 1264.05 9.20 10.21

That yield 10.21 points of the S&P500 in the day. In E-Minis terms: 500 dollars per contract, or a max of about 10% in the day.

 

[OddTrader]

Quote from alesanti:

eusdaiki, I agree with your word of caution, but there could be free lunches:

To ilustrate my point, this prediction, computed today at
9:30 ET

Is far from perfect. Anyway it generated 2 trades:

SP500
Date Type Target Gain Entry Time Exit Time Entry Value Exit Value P&L Cumm. P&L
07/27/2006 Long 5.64 10:15 11:35 1272.24 1273.25 1.01 1.01
07/27/2006 Short 6.19 11:35 15:15 1273.25 1264.05 9.20 10.21

That yield 10.21 points of the S&P500 in the day. In E-Minis terms: 500 dollars per contract, or a max of about 10% in the day.

Now your model starts at 9:30, instead of 10:45.

Looks like you don't have a finalised/ finished system yet.

Quote from alesanti:

Nononsense, after some research on the web I found the site www.tradingpro.com that shows what a result of the science applied to the market could bring:

The red line is the market. The black line is the prediction.
This prediction was computed at 10:45am today. At the end of the day they show together the prediction plus the index.
This is the "broadest sense science" applied to markets. This is my contribution.

 

[alesanti]

Quote from OddTrader:

Now your model starts at 9:30, instead of 10:45.

Looks like you don't have a finalised/ finished system yet.

The model begins computing the predicitons at 9:30, when the market opens, and it does it every 15 mins.
The trades are computed at 10:15, after the market dust goes down.

One thing is predict the market, another thing is trade the market.

 

[OddTrader]

Quote from alesanti:

The model begins computing the predicitons at 9:30, when the market opens, and it does it every 15 mins.
The trades are computed at 10:15, after the market dust goes down.

One thing is predict the market, another thing is trade the market.

"This prediction was computed at 10:45am today."

"To ilustrate my point, this prediction, computed today at
9:30 ET"

"The trades are computed at 10:15, after the market dust goes down."

9:30 and 10:45 before; then now 10:15. Totally confused.

 

[OddTrader]

Quote from alesanti:

eusdaiki, I agree with your word of caution, but there could be free lunches:

To ilustrate my point, this prediction, computed today at
9:30 ET

Is far from perfect. Anyway it generated 2 trades:

SP500
Date Type Target Gain Entry Time Exit Time Entry Value Exit Value P&L Cumm. P&L
07/27/2006 Long 5.64 10:15 11:35 1272.24 1273.25 1.01 1.01
07/27/2006 Short 6.19 11:35 15:15 1273.25 1264.05 9.20 10.21

That yield 10.21 points of the S&P500 in the day. In E-Minis terms: 500 dollars per contract, or a max of about 10% in the day.

Do you have any comments on what would be the main advantages for the above chart/ trade information comparing to other signal services that send mainly Long/ Short signals and timing?

Perhaps most signal service providers have been doing some similar predictions, except disclosing more details.

Personally I wouldn't call that any advancement on trading, whether science-based or not.

More about marketing gimmicks!

 

[eusdaiki]

There´s no such thing as a free lunch, even if it looks free to you, some one else is paying for it.

Also, everything has a cost of oportunity...









Believin all the lies that theyre tellin ya
Buyin all the products that theyre sellin ya
They say jump and ya say how high
Ya brain-dead
Ya gotta fuckin bullet in ya head

 

[vital-statistix]

Quote from eusdaiki:

...


"It is not actually terribly difficult to make money in the securities markets."

Peter Baring, Chairman of Barings, 1993.

was that not the 100 year old bank that went bust?

vital statistics

 

[Equalizer]

Quote from alesanti:

The model begins computing the predicitons at 9:30, when the market opens, and it does it every 15 mins.
The trades are computed at 10:15, after the market dust goes down.

One thing is predict the market, another thing is trade the market.

alesanti, you wouldn't per chance have done some work on turbulence? Just curious...

 

[vital-statistix]

why do I get some feeling this is just a shill for promoting a particular product?

I might be mistaken but that thought keeps coming back to me

vital statistics

 

[nononsense]

Quote from OddTrader:

Another fact is our HarryTarder on ET can even predict intraday prices that you still can't do Yet.

Let's not leave out our Jack. With his 'SCT' you don't even have to predict anything.