Schadenfreude Warning: "Karen the Supertrader"
- Thread starter Niten Doraku
- Start date
I also quoted her numbers extensively in the original Karen thread. The sad thing is that without over leveraging, she could have got very nice returns in 2014 (17%) and 2015 (18%) and could be the queen of money management after 5 years of very profitable run...
Always quit when ahead...
I dont know about that , that is remain to be seen or not !
Stop relying on that bullshit backtest talked about earlier. It's bunk. If you sell gamma far OTM you will get fucked eventually, otherwise everyone and their dog would be doing this.
In other news:
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows.../episodes/talkin-with-tom-and-tony-06-06-2016 <--- jump to 18 minutes in (still sellin' that dream!)
If anyone selling premium just heeded all the warning signs and stopped doing it at some point they would still have most of their money. The only thing that makes the strategy worthwhile is overleveraging to get giant returns which is also why the risk is so high.
Yes Sir! How about talking about the Live forward test of the Yahoo boys, Sir? Can I mention that, Sir? Ceteris paribus, if they made 18% with fucking real money in 2015 when volatility was HIGHER than in 2014, it is safe to argue that they would have made at least the same in 2014, Sir.
So no Sir, I am not going to stop talking about the backtest but how about you run one? Then you can tell us what the realistic return for 2014 would have been...
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I see some serious flaws in the Tasty Trade methodology. I can show you a positive expectation trade selling spreads (and I did in this same thread). I challenge anyone to show me a positive expectation trade using the Tasty Trade way of trading. You cannot sell naked options and allow the short strike to get touched and still maintain a positive expectancy. If you exit the position early because you are "managing" the trade then you are not allowing the distributions to play out.
Tom loves talking about math and probabilities. For those stats to have any real meaning you must let the distributions play out. If you "manage risk" like Tom does then you are just a discretionary trader and the math is a nice set piece on the stage of subjective discretionary trading.
What good is a trading system that bases itself on 1 Standard Deviation Implied Vol boundaries if the trade becomes a negative expectation trade well before either of those areas of the bell curve are allowed to be touched?
I think before anyone tries to become the next super fraud err..I mean super trader.. then you should consider spreads over naked options.
Tom loves talking about math and probabilities. For those stats to have any real meaning you must let the distributions play out. If you "manage risk" like Tom does then you are just a discretionary trader and the math is a nice set piece on the stage of subjective discretionary trading.
What good is a trading system that bases itself on 1 Standard Deviation Implied Vol boundaries if the trade becomes a negative expectation trade well before either of those areas of the bell curve are allowed to be touched?
I think before anyone tries to become the next super fraud err..I mean super trader.. then you should consider spreads over naked options.
It's definitely not safe to argue that less vol in 2014 would have been more survivable or made at least the same returns as 2015 . Put your thinking cap on.
Have the "yahoo boys" ran Monte Carlo simulations over their 2015 results and their 2014 backtests?
I agree with you about selling naked. Even selling a very wide spread and allowing enough margin for the position to move against you is better than naked
The thing people always fail to realize is the bell curve that option prices are modelled on is not a perfect reflection of the distribution of prices. I can tell you the tails are much fatter than the model/prices predict. You are not being fairly compensated for the tail risk.
The bell curve also does not accurately account the frequency of the distribution of events under the curve.
Sell premium at your own risk!!!!!