Scatty's KISS View Of The Market, 11/27

Scataphagos

Scataphagos

upload_2021-11-26_9-35-5.png


I'm not going into detail about the Elliot Wave Count, but if you understand Elliot, perhaps this may be of value.

1. (4)... the Sept low... Is generally agreed upon as correct read
2. (5)? MAY be the entire "5th Wave Up" from the Covid Low.. and MAY be the final top.
3. (5)? MAY be "W1 of 5"... meaning just the first part of the "final blow off" has been completed... more price and time to come before the final top. (At this time, I'm thinking this is most likely... Fed still printing money and not tightening rates and all.)
4. The blue lines are 50% and 62% retracements for the move and are logical downside targets "off of the high". (4) is also a logical target. Depending upon which of these targets are hit/broken, if any, will provide a clue as to the next significant move.

Rampant bullishness here should be held in check until at least this chart structure resolves one way or the other, IMV. However, it would be logical to play (5) to be the "possible final top"... as it may turn out that way. Regardless, stop discipline is a must.

Too many possibilities remain to draw other conclusions at this time. It will "all unfold in the fullness of time" -- Ed Hart
 
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Seems like the KISS view would be that stocks will soon start another major bull leg, as Nu-Covid fears prompt another round of stimmies.
 
Specterx said:
Seems like the KISS view would be that stocks will soon start another major bull leg, as Nu-Covid fears prompt another round of stimmies.
More...

IMV, not "major bull leg", but more like "final blow off top". Could be congested, could be "roman candle"... or anything between.
 
KISS; Deaddog version.
If the market is not doing what you expect it to do; take your money off the table and wait for another opportunity.
 
Not going into detail at this time... but the furious rally of last week (attributed to short covering) could be the "b" wave of an a-b-c correction, "2 of 5" wave. IF that's the case, look for a "c" wave down to complete the 2-wave up from the October low... and a good buying opportunity. IF it turns out that way, there will likely be at least a few more months on the upside before final top. As of right now, the count is in no-man's land, but the lows of October and highs of November are significant when/if tested and whether they hold or break. Trade accordingly.

FWIW... KISS, baby!
 
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