scalping with peter2h

tenny1886 said:
with scalping which i would call my trading, and it seems a lot like PeterH, its a for a few ticks/points. When i get into a trade i do not cross my fingers and jump into a trade hoping to get a 4 tick profit before the price hits my stop loss of 4 ticks. I get into a trade when the probability of price going my way is way more than it hitting the stop loss. Also its not just price action but what the price is doing at certain levels that you see drawn in the charts as shown by peterH. But it does not mean that price does not go against my trades but those situation are rare and few. sometimes price does move a few ticks beyond my entry price and in those situation i draw down if i am sure about the trade and sometimes my stops get taken and you just wait and get ready for next trade. But end of the day we will see more green than red as this is high probability scalping. I completely understand peterH trading style and if someone told me they get into trades where in they go for 5-10 points i wont call them a liar or strategy that does not work. Just because i don't have the stomach for such trades which will see price reversals does not mean i would criticize their method. Before i myself started scalping i could not fathom someone trading few points with very tight stops of a point of a half especially in ES. But now i scalp like this and completely understand few traders who are bewildered at such tight stops trading.
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It's simple. ES trades in 1/4 point ticks. He's taking half a point in edge loss as a price taker. A one point target, absent commissions. It's in no way sustainable. If he were profitable he'd find a product with less edge loss. It's likely that he chose ES because he's undercapitalized. We'll never see an actual blotter.

Peter, just show your end of day run and save yourself the trouble of posting each trade.
 
peter2h said:
My trades are generally quick and I find that having the target (four ticks) in place saves me worry . It's either win or lose, quickly--no decisions while in the trade. I admit that my strategy is a compensation for some of my own weaknesses, but it has proven to be very successful.
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its good to hear that it is good strategy and yes probabilities of trades going in favor far outnumber the ones that go against. i am really interested in your journal and look forward to your calls and also learn things to better improve my trades, don't listen to naysayers.
 
destriero said:
It's simple. ES trades in 1/4 point ticks. He's taking half a point in edge loss as a price taker. A one point target, absent commissions. It's in no way sustainable. If he were profitable he'd find a product with less edge loss. It's likely that he chose ES because he's undercapitalized. We'll never see an actual blotter.

Peter, just show your end of day run and save yourself the trouble of posting each trade.
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it is possible that it is not sustainable in long run for i am newbie when it comes to this trading methodology but since PeterH seems to have a good run using this, i am sure it is vetted and all. Also a point in ES means $50 and end of the day this strategy which seems a lot like mine produces a lot of signals and does not care for if the market is trending or ranging or bulls/bears are in power. After taking out commissions you still are in a lot of green. Beispiel if you
take 20 trades in total , and 15 of them are winners with just a point on 1 contract
, it is quite a handsome profit for amount of time involved. and if you increased the trades to 2 points with and average of 3 contracts per lot with scale down involved. it is a winning strategy.
 
tenny1886 said:
it is possible that it is not sustainable in long run for i am newbie when it comes to this trading methodology but since PeterH seems to have a good run using this, i am sure it is vetted and all. Also a point in ES means $50 and end of the day this strategy which seems a lot like mine produces a lot of signals and does not care for if the market is trending or ranging or bulls/bears are in power. After taking out commissions you still are in a lot of green. Beispiel if you
take 20 trades in total , and 15 of them are winners with just a point on 1 contract
, it is quite a handsome profit for amount of time involved. and if you increased the trades to 2 points with and average of 3 contracts per lot with scale down involved. it is a winning strategy.
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He starts out in a two tick hole. Needs a 67% hit rate to break even. You can wax philosophical about it and talk about how it works in this market or that (market). That doesn't change the maths.

Think about it in terms of an ATM digital option. Would you buy an ATM digital if the payout was 67/100? No, you would not.
 
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tenny1886 said:
Also its not just price action but what the price is doing at certain levels ... But it does not mean that price does not go against my trades but those situation are rare and few.
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Good post, tenny ... absolutely get where you're coming from
 
destriero said:
He starts out in a two tick hole. Needs a 67% hit rate to break even. You can wax philosophical about it and talk about how it works in this market or that (market). That doesn't change the maths.

Think about it in terms of an ATM digital option. Would you buy (sell) an ATM digital if the payout was 67/100? No, you would not.
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i really do not understand your analogy, i blame on my poor comprehension about options and less than average mathematical aptitude.
but if i look at the quote of 67/100 compared to 50/100, since i am more of a probabilities guy i would take the 67/100 and play on that probability all day long as chances of winning on that probability is more likely with maximum trades. I am speaking from a probability point of view and the short scalp with 4 ticks win/loss is not exactly 50/50 as you seem to think, it is more like 75/25 or even 80/20 win/loss ratio.
 
tenny1886 said:
i really do not understand your analogy, i blame on my poor comprehension about options and less than average mathematical aptitude.
but if i look at the quote of 67/100 compared to 50/100, since i am more of a probabilities guy i would take the 67/100 and play on that probability all day long as chances of winning on that probability is more likely with maximum trades. I am speaking from a probability point of view and the short scalp with 4 ticks win/loss is not exactly 50/50 as you seem to think, it is more like 75/25 or even 80/20 win/loss ratio.
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No, you’re not getting it.
 
If you're going to scalp for 4 ticks ($50), it makes much more sense to trade NQ. The 2 tick hole that Destriero is talking about is much more manageable at $5 per tick in NQ. But if you get good, its not scalable so why bother ?

Also, I find $50 a trade just pure madness unless you have an incredible amount of knowledge of how price works. Its still not worth it IMO. If ES or NQ are trending well, on average 1 or 2 days per week, learn to capitalize on those good days, and stay out of the market the other 3 or 4.

Hell, find equities that are trending the other 3 or 4 days and ride them up. But to tick f*ck all day long is just nonsense. Nobody makes money doing this.
 
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