In this video Andrew Lockwood describes his five-minute high probability scalping strategy. Andrew describes a scalper is a trader who looks to scalp out small profits multiple times a day. He conceptualizes a scalper as someone seeking to reap approximately ten, fifteen, or twenty pips profit per trade throughout the trading day, with tight take-profit and stop loss targets.
Given that my impression is that this guy is not full of a bunch of baloney (unlike the impression I have of folks like Jason Bond and Kyle Dennis) I was interested in comparing my own strategy, Numerical Price Prediction or NPP, with the information he presents in the video.
The strategy he describes in the clip is a trend following strategy. Whether or not Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) is such might be arguable, depending on how you define trend, which from my perspective, is a relative concept in that it changes depending on what time frame one is considering.
Andrew’s strategy looks for higher timeframe confirmation, but with NPP this is not necessary because higher timeframe variables are represented even on lower time frame charts.
Nonetheless, sometimes it is worthwhile to consult the higher timeframes just to get a clearer picture of what is going on. For example, in viewing the horizon from the surface of the Earth, it’s understandable that an individual might believe the horizon to be straight. However, with the help of a little distance (as one gains from viewing the earth from space) it becomes clear that the Earth’s outline is not straight at all.
The same can be said of lower time frame charts. However, it is also arguable, I believe, that should this be the case with respect to a given measurement, it is highly likely that the measure reflects an aspect of market conditions that has little or no bearing on what the market does in the short run.
Andrew calls a higher timeframe confirmation chart an “anchor chart,” so in attempting to draw analogies between what Andrew describes in the video and my own system, I will substitute this expression with the term: “anchor moving average.”
Lockwood’s system uses an hourly chart for confirmations, and trades off a five-minute chart. The 60-minute chart setup includes an 8- and 21-period exponential moving average. The five-minute chart setup includes an 8-, 13-, and 21-period exponential moving average.
What he does is look for the moving averages to fan out in a particular way, very similar to an approach described by Nick McDonald of Trade with Precision. Something I find interesting about Lockwood’s method however is that he does not stick to the standard, most commonly used, moving average settings (as does McDonald, and as many trading experts and instructors insist retail traders ought to do).
Like Andrew, I am also looking for specific moving averages to align in a particular arrangement, but their settings in no way reflect the settings used by Andrew and Nick.
Lockwood’s strategy looks for pullbacks into the 8-period exponential moving average, whereas with NPP, the location of the pullback is not as important as is how it is defined by a designated moving average (i.e., short-term trend line). Andrew defines a given candlestick as a “trigger bar” based on its position whereas NPP defines a given candlestick as a “trigger bar” based on its interplay with (crossovers of) a designated moving average.
Andrew sets take-profit targets and entry levels based on the lowest or highest point of the previous five candlesticks. However, my initial plan is to use a particular deviation level (band) of an associated moving average envelope based on the likelihood of price reaching that level as suggested by a statistical analysis of historical data.
Lockwood sets stops three pips above or below the trigger bar, but again, I will be using a particular deviation level (band) of an associated moving average envelope which I will initially choose based on a statistical analysis of historical data, but anticipate possibly modifying in the light of real-life performance.
Andy’s first take-profit target is one × risk. His second is two × risk. An alternative exit strategy he likes to use is to replace the second take-profit target with a trailing stop set at the lowest low or highest high of the previous three candlesticks depending on whether the trader is in a long or short position.
With regard to NPP however, a trader can let his or her profits run, achieving an effect tantamount to Andrew’s trailing stop, by remaining in trades as long as candlesticks continue to form on the “right side” of the designated short-term moving average.