You can claim you are "not correlated" all you want, but at the end of the day investments are, and will always be, compared to how SPX does. In other words, how does your active trading compares, net of fees/commish, to the long term performance of the market as a whole ? If, and ONLY if, you can prove you average more than 12% per year, over the long term, you can really speak, otherwise you are just another troll wannabe.
Scalping for 4 ticks; mangement?
- Thread starter SPT
- Start date
You can claim you are "not correlated" all you want, but at the end of the day investments are, and will always be, compared to how SPX does. In other words, how does your active trading compares, net of fees/commish, to the long term performance of the market as a whole ? If, and ONLY if, you can prove you average more than 12% per year, over the long term, you can really speak, otherwise you are just another troll wannabe.
You 2 obviously have a beef with each other, doubt anyone else cares, so take it to PM or your own thread.
12% not worth bothering with to me, just a good day, long term is for the already rich.
Here is that 6sma Envelope 0.03% setup I was on about.
With the direction, look to get in towards the low of, it's the main basis for my trades, I've stripped out my other Direction Envelopes to make it easier to see.
Basically, with the direction, put a limit order towards the low of the Envelope range, personally don't run fixed 4 TP or trade ES, but it's got a chance, I'd go 6 to 8 I think if you really want to use fixed TP, looks like it has it in it easily most of the time, always kill it if it stalls before.
Flat market trade either side.
The spikes and reverses are too fast for manual market order, I've been trying.
The chart with more Lines, is my full method, same but expand to 11sma Envelope and then a 30ema envelope just for flat markets.
With the direction, look to get in towards the low of, it's the main basis for my trades, I've stripped out my other Direction Envelopes to make it easier to see.
Basically, with the direction, put a limit order towards the low of the Envelope range, personally don't run fixed 4 TP or trade ES, but it's got a chance, I'd go 6 to 8 I think if you really want to use fixed TP, looks like it has it in it easily most of the time, always kill it if it stalls before.
Flat market trade either side.
The spikes and reverses are too fast for manual market order, I've been trying.
The chart with more Lines, is my full method, same but expand to 11sma Envelope and then a 30ema envelope just for flat markets.
Attachments
No. Investments are not compared to the S&P500. Only silly journalists (and yourself) do that. What has a commodity trading vehicle have to do with the S&P500? Absolutely nothing. There is no correlation. In fact , smart institutional investors look for non correlated investment vehicles because they have all the exposure they want to the sp500, they do not need any more!
Anyway, since you are dumb enough to do a comparison, you would have to look at the risks of each, not just the returns. The S&P has in it's history drawdowns , lasting for DECADES, often of 50% +. My biggest drawdown is more like 10% AND i have thoroughly thrashed the sp500 over 10 years.
Dude, seriously, do yourself a favor and stop embarrassing yourself. Your 2013 trading journal speaks volumes as to what your real trading "abilities" are. Now go back to your demo account before I start to copy and paste your pearls of wisdom from that thread for everyone to see. You are a fraud and you are clearly completely clueless as to how markets work. Good riddance.
Feel free to copy and paste. It's already there, I have nothing to hide. In fact it would be good if you did so, you may learn something, which is what this forum is about.
As i said newbies like you need educating, but the mind does needs to be open.
Please note that it is you who is coming across as a shill, as i suspect for the vanguard group.
As i said newbies like you need educating, but the mind does needs to be open.
Please note that it is you who is coming across as a shill, as i suspect for the vanguard group.
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I agree. ES has been very quiet on low volume pending resolution of the ECB-Greece drama.
I take what it gives -- which sometimes isn't much. Hopefully, movement and volume will improve but insisting a market give what it was giving even last Summer might end poorly, as others have pointed out.
I take what it gives -- which sometimes isn't much. Hopefully, movement and volume will improve but insisting a market give what it was giving even last Summer might end poorly, as others have pointed out.
Hi SPT,
I wanted to offer a couple of thoughts about your questions and offer some ways to think about your questions from a different perspective.
Scalping 4 ticks in the ES with a 4 tick stop is possible, but I think you'll find over the long term your profits will be either so razor thin that it's not worth the effort or eaten up by commission and the occasional slippage when you have to cross the book on a stop out.
In essence, this 1 Risk: 1 Return approach (1R trades) makes for a method which requires you to have a better than 50% win rate. That's easy, right? Well, not so much.
Think about that 1:1R system in the extreme. 1 tick. What's your sense of the win rate? I propose to you that it's less than 50%. Here's why: when the -1 tick gets hit (even with a 1 lot) your Stop Loss will trigger. But on the upside, when your +1 tick gets hit, you have to wait in line for a fill. To fix that, you'd need to move your stop to 2 ticks. Now you have a 0.5R system. That will require a 75% win rate to break even before commissions and slippage. Not easy.
The 4 ticks wide scalp give you more room than that example in the extreme, but it's still not simply a matter of doing better than 50/50. You have to do much better than that. So this approach will rely a lot, if not entirely, on your ability to pick those 4 tick turns. In a fast ES market, like we've seen two weeks ago, that's going to fall into the noise as the book snaps back and forth.
How do you feel about your ability to pick those 4 tick turns? You are putting a lot of pressure on yourself for high accuracy as a trader. Why not give yourself a little bit of margin and look for higher R trades like a 1.5R (6T target, 4T stop) or even 2R?
Moving your stoploss to 2 ticks once the market has moved 2 ticks in your favor is like taking a new trade, or you could think of it like resetting your current trade. This one is a 2 tick target with a 4 tick stop (0.5R system again). Not good because you now need a 75% success rate to break even on that adjusted trade. Do you think that the 2 tick move in your direction makes it *much* more likely to continue 2 more? While it will depend on the current volatility, that's really the question you need to ask when you ratchet your stop.
I wanted to offer a couple of thoughts about your questions and offer some ways to think about your questions from a different perspective.
Scalping 4 ticks in the ES with a 4 tick stop is possible, but I think you'll find over the long term your profits will be either so razor thin that it's not worth the effort or eaten up by commission and the occasional slippage when you have to cross the book on a stop out.
In essence, this 1 Risk: 1 Return approach (1R trades) makes for a method which requires you to have a better than 50% win rate. That's easy, right? Well, not so much.
Think about that 1:1R system in the extreme. 1 tick. What's your sense of the win rate? I propose to you that it's less than 50%. Here's why: when the -1 tick gets hit (even with a 1 lot) your Stop Loss will trigger. But on the upside, when your +1 tick gets hit, you have to wait in line for a fill. To fix that, you'd need to move your stop to 2 ticks. Now you have a 0.5R system. That will require a 75% win rate to break even before commissions and slippage. Not easy.
The 4 ticks wide scalp give you more room than that example in the extreme, but it's still not simply a matter of doing better than 50/50. You have to do much better than that. So this approach will rely a lot, if not entirely, on your ability to pick those 4 tick turns. In a fast ES market, like we've seen two weeks ago, that's going to fall into the noise as the book snaps back and forth.
How do you feel about your ability to pick those 4 tick turns? You are putting a lot of pressure on yourself for high accuracy as a trader. Why not give yourself a little bit of margin and look for higher R trades like a 1.5R (6T target, 4T stop) or even 2R?
Moving your stoploss to 2 ticks once the market has moved 2 ticks in your favor is like taking a new trade, or you could think of it like resetting your current trade. This one is a 2 tick target with a 4 tick stop (0.5R system again). Not good because you now need a 75% success rate to break even on that adjusted trade. Do you think that the 2 tick move in your direction makes it *much* more likely to continue 2 more? While it will depend on the current volatility, that's really the question you need to ask when you ratchet your stop.