Scalping and Trading
- Thread starter AllenZ
- Start date
I used to think that futures markets were somehow more 'pure' than equities. now i think it's all just stuff -- different, but the same.
I'll try to put it another way: there are many different types of women, but in the most important ways, they are very much alike.
One advantage that futures might offer someone like me is that the infrastructure allows for lower transaction costs. That can be like women coming from two different families and backgrounds: one might have more expensive taste and more pretentious mannerisms.
imho.
<a href="http://www.elder.com/carib2002_women.htm"
<img src="http://www.elder.com/images2/costa_cost1.jpg"></img></a>
[size= 1]Let's thank Dr. Elder for looking after the unique needs of traders of the Fairer Sex.[/size]
<A href="http://www.elder.com/carib2002_drelder.htm"><img src="http://www.elder.com/images2/costa_rica_drelder.jpg"width=40 height=50></img></a>
Well, you'd be smiling too.....
I'll try to put it another way: there are many different types of women, but in the most important ways, they are very much alike.
One advantage that futures might offer someone like me is that the infrastructure allows for lower transaction costs. That can be like women coming from two different families and backgrounds: one might have more expensive taste and more pretentious mannerisms.
imho.
<a href="http://www.elder.com/carib2002_women.htm"
<img src="http://www.elder.com/images2/costa_cost1.jpg"></img></a>
[size= 1]Let's thank Dr. Elder for looking after the unique needs of traders of the Fairer Sex.[/size]
<A href="http://www.elder.com/carib2002_drelder.htm"><img src="http://www.elder.com/images2/costa_rica_drelder.jpg"width=40 height=50></img></a>
Well, you'd be smiling too.....
The QQQ is a great vehicle for many reasons. 1 of them being that is a great way to begin stock trading. You can trade 100 share lots though a broker like IB for $2 round trip and get your feet wet, learn how to take stops, take profits, enter orders, ect.
In addition if you become proficient at the QQQ you can then make the decision to trade stocks or move to futures ( since they trade pretty much in lock step ).
I traded the QQQ for awhile before moving to futures to gain better leverage and decrease commission cost. This gave me a tremendous advantage. 1 reason being when trading the QQQ I would look for .15 to .25 moves which I found available everyday. This equates to 6-10 points on the NQ. Doing this allowed me to never really have attempted a scalping style of trading ( although I do scalp intraday in addition to my normal setups as previously mentioned ). This is also why i give QQQ trades in the room I run as I think it is the best way to learnt futures trading, as well as beginning stock trading.
AllenZ
In addition if you become proficient at the QQQ you can then make the decision to trade stocks or move to futures ( since they trade pretty much in lock step ).
I traded the QQQ for awhile before moving to futures to gain better leverage and decrease commission cost. This gave me a tremendous advantage. 1 reason being when trading the QQQ I would look for .15 to .25 moves which I found available everyday. This equates to 6-10 points on the NQ. Doing this allowed me to never really have attempted a scalping style of trading ( although I do scalp intraday in addition to my normal setups as previously mentioned ). This is also why i give QQQ trades in the room I run as I think it is the best way to learnt futures trading, as well as beginning stock trading.
AllenZ
Actually a pretty tough week for me. I had only one down day but it was one of the most frustrating I have had in some time. I started the week well but fell down on Wednesday overtrading and such. My system this week as a little off, but I was able to make up for it off some improved overall scalping. The number of trades is higher than I would like but the net points are fair. Overall, when put together with last week combined for a good 1/2 month of trading. Here are the results:
June 10-14
Number of trades = 81 ( too high )
Net Points = +36
System Setups = 25
System Net Points = +7
System Win Rate = 44% ( too low )
June 3-14 ( 1/2 month results )
Number of trades = 158
Net Points Total = +97
System Setups = 46
System Net Points = +58
System Win Rate = 50%
This performance is right on target for the first 1/2 of the month. The System has averaged a net of near +5.8 points per day on average of 4.6 trades per day. This is right on track. Ave stop taken is 4.4 and ave gain is 7.2 also right on track. For those curious, this equates to a monthly return of +21.2%, after commission based on 1% risk per trade taken.
My scalping has been a fair addition to the system so far this month. 112 trades netting 39 points. I am not pleased with the scalping overall, yet it is now profitable for the month.
Total Return for June ( 10 days ) is +1182 per contract ( I do multi-contract trades ) including both scalps and system trades.
I hope these posts help or offer some insight. They do require some work and time.
AllenZ
June 10-14
Number of trades = 81 ( too high )
Net Points = +36
System Setups = 25
System Net Points = +7
System Win Rate = 44% ( too low )
June 3-14 ( 1/2 month results )
Number of trades = 158
Net Points Total = +97
System Setups = 46
System Net Points = +58
System Win Rate = 50%
This performance is right on target for the first 1/2 of the month. The System has averaged a net of near +5.8 points per day on average of 4.6 trades per day. This is right on track. Ave stop taken is 4.4 and ave gain is 7.2 also right on track. For those curious, this equates to a monthly return of +21.2%, after commission based on 1% risk per trade taken.
My scalping has been a fair addition to the system so far this month. 112 trades netting 39 points. I am not pleased with the scalping overall, yet it is now profitable for the month.
Total Return for June ( 10 days ) is +1182 per contract ( I do multi-contract trades ) including both scalps and system trades.
I hope these posts help or offer some insight. They do require some work and time.
AllenZ
STOCK MARKET DIRECTION
The stock market last Friday put in some kind of bottom. The market is now hated by the general public and that is a great sign. The announcers on CNBC are now calling for a bad summer and act like they understand market direction and where it is going. Arch Crawford is calling for a crash between the 20-25 of June; Art Cashin is calling for a low on the 25th rumor has it. Of course this is the best type of sentiment reading we could have pundits at the bottom calling for more lows and crashes. This weekend INTC and MOT have received positive comments in Barronâs which may help that sector.
Open interest in the S&P futures has now expanded to 606,572 contracts which I believe is smart money getting long over the last 2 weeks. Open interest exploded in the NASDQ futures to 86,801 contracts. As of this moment the Futures have there largest amount of open interest in the past year. The sentiment is at the extreme of oversold and people are afraid of the market and are looking for capitulation which will not come. The market gets rid of the most people by bleeding to death not letting them out with a quick crash. As you look through this weekend edition you will see the various indicators that are telling us of a bottom which I believe was put in Friday morning. So I feel we have found the bottom of a trading range and will work our way higher now. There are gaps at 1105.20 on the S&P futures and that should be a good target for now. The beige book came out last week and shows slow growth which is fine.
sorry cant post the chart here.
As you can see the CBOE put/call ratio is at .93 which is the highest reading since the September bottom.
The BTK (Biotech Index) closed above the high of the low day and broke the downside momentum in this group.
The TRIN indicator in all three markets below is showing Bullish divergences and is extremely oversold. McClellan Oscillator has given a bullish divergence and has broken the downside momentum.As you can see the same bullish divergence exists in the SPX and the summation index is deeply oversold. The SPX advance decline line is deeply oversold and being short now makes no sense the danger is now on the upside not the downside.
Value where is it in the Stock Market?
DYN, MIR, CPN, AES, DUK these four power producers are now trading between 4.6 -10 times next years earnings estimates and AES, MIR, CPN, and DYN are trading below book value. Wall Street has downgraded all these issues, what better time to buy them. Wall Street also upgraded all these issues at the highs and now they downgrade at the lows? There are preferred issued on a few of these that look like great bargains.
TYC
âMerrill Lynch upgrades to Near-Term BUY from Neutral, saying the co is trading at firm's "floor" valuation of $10 and that the CIT offering should substantially help to allay the mkt's liquidity concerns; believes stock could achieve a price in the low to mid-20s, yet firm remains cautious regarding TYC's strategic direction and potential future operating. Separately, JP Morgan upgrades TYC to Long-Term BUY from Mkt Perform as one of the key unknowns - the timing of a CIT offering - may have been removed.â
AMGEN (AMGN)
I like this stock at this price it has room to bounce stop is last weeks low at 36.81.There is massive support at the 250 area in the Utility Average. The downside is very limited from here and I would be a buyer on a continuous basis from here going forward. This would be a great place to start dollar cost averaging. As you can the Dow Jones Utility average has been beaten up very badly and now looks as it has found support. This is one of the true value areas with a great future outlook that is cheap.
How long does it to wipe out excess?
Take a look at the Nikkei stock market it was a bubble that burst and as you can see it has taken 12 years to wipe out the over bought and wring out the excess. The reason I mention this I want people to understand what we are in for over the next 10 years. The U.S. stock bubble was the greatest bubble in history and it will take years to be back to historical valuations that make sense on the stock market. This doesnât mean that there will not be cheap areas because there will be and new technologies will appear. But the grinding out process doesnât come in just two or three years in can take a decade or more.
The stock market last Friday put in some kind of bottom. The market is now hated by the general public and that is a great sign. The announcers on CNBC are now calling for a bad summer and act like they understand market direction and where it is going. Arch Crawford is calling for a crash between the 20-25 of June; Art Cashin is calling for a low on the 25th rumor has it. Of course this is the best type of sentiment reading we could have pundits at the bottom calling for more lows and crashes. This weekend INTC and MOT have received positive comments in Barronâs which may help that sector.
Open interest in the S&P futures has now expanded to 606,572 contracts which I believe is smart money getting long over the last 2 weeks. Open interest exploded in the NASDQ futures to 86,801 contracts. As of this moment the Futures have there largest amount of open interest in the past year. The sentiment is at the extreme of oversold and people are afraid of the market and are looking for capitulation which will not come. The market gets rid of the most people by bleeding to death not letting them out with a quick crash. As you look through this weekend edition you will see the various indicators that are telling us of a bottom which I believe was put in Friday morning. So I feel we have found the bottom of a trading range and will work our way higher now. There are gaps at 1105.20 on the S&P futures and that should be a good target for now. The beige book came out last week and shows slow growth which is fine.
sorry cant post the chart here.
As you can see the CBOE put/call ratio is at .93 which is the highest reading since the September bottom.
The BTK (Biotech Index) closed above the high of the low day and broke the downside momentum in this group.
The TRIN indicator in all three markets below is showing Bullish divergences and is extremely oversold. McClellan Oscillator has given a bullish divergence and has broken the downside momentum.As you can see the same bullish divergence exists in the SPX and the summation index is deeply oversold. The SPX advance decline line is deeply oversold and being short now makes no sense the danger is now on the upside not the downside.
Value where is it in the Stock Market?
DYN, MIR, CPN, AES, DUK these four power producers are now trading between 4.6 -10 times next years earnings estimates and AES, MIR, CPN, and DYN are trading below book value. Wall Street has downgraded all these issues, what better time to buy them. Wall Street also upgraded all these issues at the highs and now they downgrade at the lows? There are preferred issued on a few of these that look like great bargains.
TYC
âMerrill Lynch upgrades to Near-Term BUY from Neutral, saying the co is trading at firm's "floor" valuation of $10 and that the CIT offering should substantially help to allay the mkt's liquidity concerns; believes stock could achieve a price in the low to mid-20s, yet firm remains cautious regarding TYC's strategic direction and potential future operating. Separately, JP Morgan upgrades TYC to Long-Term BUY from Mkt Perform as one of the key unknowns - the timing of a CIT offering - may have been removed.â
AMGEN (AMGN)
I like this stock at this price it has room to bounce stop is last weeks low at 36.81.There is massive support at the 250 area in the Utility Average. The downside is very limited from here and I would be a buyer on a continuous basis from here going forward. This would be a great place to start dollar cost averaging. As you can the Dow Jones Utility average has been beaten up very badly and now looks as it has found support. This is one of the true value areas with a great future outlook that is cheap.
How long does it to wipe out excess?
Take a look at the Nikkei stock market it was a bubble that burst and as you can see it has taken 12 years to wipe out the over bought and wring out the excess. The reason I mention this I want people to understand what we are in for over the next 10 years. The U.S. stock bubble was the greatest bubble in history and it will take years to be back to historical valuations that make sense on the stock market. This doesnât mean that there will not be cheap areas because there will be and new technologies will appear. But the grinding out process doesnât come in just two or three years in can take a decade or more.
Hi Allen,
Yes, thanks for posting. I, for one, will continue to be keenly interested in hearing your results.
Here is a hearty public THANK YOU for all your help while I was in the room. I know I learned more than you probably realize.
To paraphrase Winston Churchill... " I like to learn, but seldom like being taught"
In spite of my hard head, I will be a much better trader for having been with you.
Continued good luck to you and the guys and gals in the Index room.
Yes, thanks for posting. I, for one, will continue to be keenly interested in hearing your results.
Here is a hearty public THANK YOU for all your help while I was in the room. I know I learned more than you probably realize.
To paraphrase Winston Churchill... " I like to learn, but seldom like being taught"
In spite of my hard head, I will be a much better trader for having been with you.
Continued good luck to you and the guys and gals in the Index room.
I agree. Market is way oversold, i'm long (but i don't yet have a full position).
I'm torn between last fridays low as the bottom and this coming week 19-20 as the bottom. The only reason for this is because of the terrorist attacks last year... the weekly chart is all messed up so my fib time counts could be messed up as well.
Either way, i'm long, if it drops a little more this week, i'll be more long. The trend is about to change. The calls i'm buying should easily triple to sixtuple within the next month.
I'm torn between last fridays low as the bottom and this coming week 19-20 as the bottom. The only reason for this is because of the terrorist attacks last year... the weekly chart is all messed up so my fib time counts could be messed up as well.
Either way, i'm long, if it drops a little more this week, i'll be more long. The trend is about to change. The calls i'm buying should easily triple to sixtuple within the next month.
Just wanted to check in after a couple of narrow range days and see how things are going. As you know I do my midweek update either tuesday or Wednesday to see if I am on track for the week. Monday was frustrating for me, although i was long on 3 out of 4 trades I did not get anything out of them. Tuesday was one of my best days so goes to show, you never know. Here is the update:
Number of trades = 31
Net points total = +31
System Setups = 6
System Net Points = +16
Win Rate = 60%
( net points include system points net total )
A good start to the week for me thanks to a great day today. Cant seem to get away from my 15 RT a day average this month, spending too much on commission. As long as the scalps are net positive I wont limit the number but i will try to keep to 15 a day average or less. I am on track for a great week have to see what tomorrow brings.
AllenZ
Number of trades = 31
Net points total = +31
System Setups = 6
System Net Points = +16
Win Rate = 60%
( net points include system points net total )
A good start to the week for me thanks to a great day today. Cant seem to get away from my 15 RT a day average this month, spending too much on commission. As long as the scalps are net positive I wont limit the number but i will try to keep to 15 a day average or less. I am on track for a great week have to see what tomorrow brings.
AllenZ
Allenz,
Since you started this thread about trading and scalping, I am wondering whether or not you know how much off-floor traders at any of the exchanges pay per option contract (may they be indexes or equities)?
I believe that the lower the fee and cost, the more success a person has at the trading game.
Since you started this thread about trading and scalping, I am wondering whether or not you know how much off-floor traders at any of the exchanges pay per option contract (may they be indexes or equities)?
I believe that the lower the fee and cost, the more success a person has at the trading game.