Scalp Trading Challenge

Sam Mcgee

Sam Mcgee

Here's a challenge for anyone interested. You can sign up for the free membership for Linda Bradford Raschke: https://www.lbrgroup.com/index.asp?page=Login

On the articles tab, there is an article from Kevin Ho, called "Scalp Trading Methods". In the article he lists 6 different trading methods.

Kevin claims a very high success rate for executions of his trading methods. The article shows a chart of ES futures from about August 29, 2003 to August 8, 2003. I set up Autotrader to replay these days with Ensign playback files. Autotrader is available here for a free demo:
http://autotrader1.home.comcast.net/
and you can get Ensign playback files here:
http://charts.dacharts.com/Playback_Files.htm

I then tried as closely as I could to repeat Kevin's trading method. For his first trading method he claims 9 out of 9 successful trades from August 29 to August 8. If I was to follow his rules as stated I found that not even half of them were successful. I tried a couple of his other methods and found the same thing, only about half of the trades using his methods were successful, nowhere near what Kevin was claiming.

Has anyone else tried these methods or would they want to try them? Did I miss a detail that would have changed the success rate?
 
Quote from mikecully:

I like to try this. Can you post the direct link instead of having to register on LBR?
More...

It's free to register with LBR but here's the link:
https://www.lbrgroup.com/images///tooI_kelvin1.pdf

You could also test the method with Ensign Playback or some other playback but it's not as easy as Autotrader. In most instances you have to set a target of 1 point and stop loss of 1 point. I find this easiest with Autotrader.

You couldn't backtest the method that easily just by looking at a chart. It's a lot more accurate using a tick by tick playback.

Kevin gives the exact days that the method worked for him on his charts. (July 29 to August 8) I replayed those same days and I fail to see how he could have been so successful if he had actually followed his rules.
 
Quote from springboktrader:

Have not tested Kevin's scalp trading methods. However i have the highest regard for the lbrgroup - and their daily service is great.
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I've always read good things too about Linda Bradford Raschke. Thats why it surprised me when I tried Kevin Ho's method posted there and I couldn't repeat the results that he claimed. Perhaps I was doing something wrong.

In his first method of 6 he talks about entering a trade on a breakout of the 15 minute opening range. I would enter a trade on two tics (0.25 X 2 for 0.5 points?) above the high or below the low of the opening range. My stop would be set for 1 point and target for 1 point. He claimed this worked 9 out of 9 times from July 29 2003 till August 8 2003. I could only get it to work about 4 or 5 times out of the 9.

Have you learned a method or something from her site that works for you? Have you been able to make a profit with that knowledge?
 
Hello Guys:
I use methods similar to those. I use NinjaTrader. First let me say that the risk management and position sizing are vital to making this work. The idea of risking 1 pt. to make 1 pt won't fly in the long run. I can tell you from experience. It would be wonderful wouldn't it, if it worked as easily as the author suggests. What I have found is that the price action necessary for this kind of trading happens periodically but not all the time. Seasonally, what you get on the S&P is small range chop. When that happens, using those techniques will result in a slow bleeding of your account. What he doesn't tell you (and I wonder why) is that you need to be able to anticipate what kind of price action you will see FIRST (early in the session). THEN if you see price moving with momentum and with follow through, you can scalp.

If you insist on trying these scalping techniques, DO NOT wait for multi-point targets on a chop day. You will lose. Try .75 to 1.25 pts. Also do not risk 1 pt on a scalp. This is just common sense. I never risk more than .75 and I mostly get out the second time I see -.5 pts Good luck gentlemen. Steve46
 
probably he is defining the range differently than you.. 15 minutes is not an exact thing.. you cant just count to 15, hold your nose and press the trade buttons.. each time the range is touched and expanded you have the potential to think it will be a range break but it might not be yet.. its not an exact science..

-qwik
 
Here is the first method from Kevin Ho's article:

Setup: Wait for the first 15minute range to form from the
open.
Entry: Enter on a buy stop 2 tics above the high of the first 15
min range or Enter on a sell stop 2 ticks below the low
of the first 15 min range
Profit exit: Close out positions on an immediate 1-point profit
Stop Loss: Exit for loss on a 1 point loss from entry or,
Exit if trade is open for more then one minute.

From July 29 till August 8 for 2003 his chart shows that 9 trades for the 9 trading days were successful. I'd love to see in detail how he did it.
 
Quote from Sam Mcgee:

Here's a challenge for anyone interested. You can sign up for the free membership for Linda Bradford Raschke: https://www.lbrgroup.com/index.asp?page=Login

On the articles tab, there is an article from Kevin Ho, called "Scalp Trading Methods". In the article he lists 6 different trading methods.

Kevin claims a very high success rate for executions of his trading methods. The article shows a chart of ES futures from about August 29, 2003 to August 8, 2003. I set up Autotrader to replay these days with Ensign playback files. Autotrader is available here for a free demo:
http://autotrader1.home.comcast.net/
and you can get Ensign playback files here:
http://charts.dacharts.com/Playback_Files.htm

I then tried as closely as I could to repeat Kevin's trading method. For his first trading method he claims 9 out of 9 successful trades from August 29 to August 8. If I was to follow his rules as stated I found that not even half of them were successful. I tried a couple of his other methods and found the same thing, only about half of the trades using his methods were successful, nowhere near what Kevin was claiming.

Has anyone else tried these methods or would they want to try them? Did I miss a detail that would have changed the success rate?
More...

Sam,

I'm new to AT. I just dl it and dl Ensign playback files. Am I correct to ASSUME that I need Ensign to see the charts again? I thought I read somewhere on AT homepage that one could feed it to Medved QT charts to see the playback files as charts?

I quote from the "Features" link of the website:

"TWS Server proxy in Simulation playback mode. You now have the option to make AutoTrader work as a TWS API server when you playback your collected data. You can then start your Quotetracker or SierraChart charting software, and it will connect to AutoTrader and start receiving the tick data. The client programs would not even know the difference that they are connected to AutoTrader and not TWS. Practice your strategy and trades in the ultimate simulation package available using IB TWS.
"

Does this imply that I can run the Ensign playback file into QT charting? So that way I don't have to get SierraChart?? Please answer me this any one you who uses AT... thanks

Please tell me if I'm mistaken...

 
Quote from Sam Mcgee:

Here is the first method from Kevin Ho's article:

Setup: Wait for the first 15minute range to form from the
open.
Entry: Enter on a buy stop 2 tics above the high of the first 15
min range or Enter on a sell stop 2 ticks below the low
of the first 15 min range
Profit exit: Close out positions on an immediate 1-point profit
Stop Loss: Exit for loss on a 1 point loss from entry or,
Exit if trade is open for more then one minute.

From July 29 till August 8 for 2003 his chart shows that 9 trades for the 9 trading days were successful. I'd love to see in detail how he did it.
More...


Wow it's that easy? Hey everyone, let's go make millions.

Come on guys, if the method was that successful and tradeable, Kevin Ho would not be sharing or selling it. I'm not saying the basic method is a crock of shit, but at the very least, there are some innate characteristics that the trader has to develop.

Also, the trades shown are over 6 months ago. Different market now.
 
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