"Scaling out" is inferior behavior
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
What this indicates is that you have not read the thread at all. Sorry, but there has been no evidence presented yet, that disproves what I say. What does happen is that people go off topic and try to change the discussion. --Ishmael
By the way, it's this kind of emotionally driven response from people arguing against that also detracts from their ability to make money trading
no, i just read your original quote, and i still say you're wrong.
all stock trading is emotional to some degree.
unless you're an algorithm.
i time my exit points on exactly where i want out of a position based on upper resistance and lower support levels, and i use automated stops that ensure i'm out exactly where i want out, and back in short exactly where i want back in. i can program those trades in a cascade that has me scaling in and out of the same stock in parts of a whole position, say 1000 shares at a time on a 100K AAPL position in a day.
i would never take a 100K position long and wait until my exit point manually to decide when to sell the entire lot.
that's just stupid. which, i believe, is what you do.
never said i used backtesting. that was so 1989.
the optimal exit point of a trade is where you set your stop, what your price target is, what your profit "comfort" level is relative to your risk "comfort" level.
there is no right or wrong in this argument.
what the hell is your point again?
I don't think the OP is going to understand your post. He isn't concerned with the facts. He is a theoretician who probably ran some simulations and has a faith-based belief in his 'approach'. Your post is a perfect example of why the original assertion is just that - an assertion with no proof to back it up.
You will notice that each time a new member posts and provides an example of why the original assertion is wrong, the OP will respond like this
"The optimal exit point for any trade can be determined by backtesting, before the trade is entered".
This is the definition of assertion - just stating that something is true, disregarding the facts, and offering no proof except that one is saying it's true.
My post was addressed to the OP, not to you. I am in agreement with you that the idea that the optimal exit point for a trade can be determined through backtesting is ridiculous, and a blanket statement that 'scaling out is always inferior behaviour for any trader and every system' is obviously ridiculous.
By the way, I said the exact same thing as you - the only optimal exit point that can be determined in advance is your stop loss. The idea you can know exactly when a move is going to end and hold your entire position until that point, in every trade, in every trading system, is so obviously ridiculous that the only person who could hold such an opinion is a theoretician who has never placed an actual trade.
i don't know about that whole volatility indicator suggestion being useless.
i've got a momentum indicator that i've used for 20 years that shows consistently, and i mean, CONSISTENTLY, a downward move 5 timebars ahead of the realtime chart, the offset takes into account the previous x bars and the last x number of bars after to show more of a moving average in real time than the oversold or undersold of a stochastic.
i find it really useful in setting my stops, and when i'm manually scalping in and out of peaks and bottoms in real time or 1 or 5 minute periods.
it tells me where the downturn will begin, where the bounce will start, and it helps me manage my position size so i can buy or dump blocks more quickly in 100s or 1000s than if i were to try to get out in total of 10000 or more.
i don't want my order waiting in the bid ask queue for other traders to push down, i want to try and get out a cent or two up and/or down in smaller blocks so i can match those up with earlier entry points so in my final pnl calculation i'm actually higher than if i were to have tried to pick the perfect exit or entry points on the whole of my position.
i don't know about y'all, but it works like a charm for me, and it sure as fuck ain't theory.
and it seems like all you guys do is talk theory without showing your math.
why is it the ones who think they know it all never actually post real time trades to back up their shit talk?
Are you reading my posts? Please stop quoting them. I am on the same side of this argument as you. I'm not claiming to know anything, other than the idea that scaling out is 'always inferior' is a stupid idea. That's all I'm saying in this thread. That, and the idea that you can determine how long prices will go up by 'backtesting' is also stupid. I'm not saying your approach involves theory, I'm saying that the OP is basing his statements on theory. Do you know what OP means?
Wake up, or try posting when you're sober.
Sheesh.
LOL. sorry. i just finished doing lines with mack. the hookers also throw off my concentration a bit.
it is friday, you know.
fair enough. i won't quote you. but i'm sure there are tons of traders or theorists on here who disagree with you who will now begin to argue with me. so i'll take the heat. that's why i'm here.
i think that my being in the 14% of always scaling out makes me one of the better traders out there, because lord knows i don't want to be in the middle of the bell curve with the sheep. not on either end of the spectrum. i think that's what they call independant thinking, or being a contrarian.
do this and tell me if i'm wrong:
look at a chart of the dow from 1928 to 1954 and then invert it. tell me that's not EXACTLY where we are today, or rather, where we have been the last 20 or so years.
i'm so wicked short this market right now, i'm probably the only guy who sees the next crash coming...
would this be considered backtesting?
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
Clearly, you have not read the thread at all. Back to the drawing board for you to come up with an argument against my proven assertion-- Sorry
Have a good weekend all-- Out for now
the yankees suck.
how's that for changing the subject?