Scale into a short position Wednesday 5/7/08 at the close

I trade the NQ but with a decent report from CSCO and an intermediate uptrend (though apparently 'overbought'), I'd be more inclined to just stand aside (not short) if I was going to 100% cash here. Then again, I don't short but just go to mostly cash if I'm concerned about a pullback.

That way, I could only be wrong in one direction and it would just be missed opportunity.

I'd also be cautious of an oil pullback here and the boost that would cause to equities.
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

There's too much fuel flowing into equities right now. I think the retail money has just actually started to flow back in from low yielding savings accounts, money markets and bonds (including treasuries).

As bad as the economy is, with inflation causing negative real returns on savings, tax exempt bonds (especially for the uber wealthy) or equities are the only games worth playing now.

Real estate has lost all cache, house flippers have become house floppers, and small business owners are suffering terribly, for the most part.

I believe there was 3.5 trillion USD in money markets and CDs at banks, alone, as of last month. With even 'high' yielding accounts bearing 3% interest, at a time when food, gasoline, energy and most other costs are rising, even average people will feel as if they're being cheated and that they're losing ground - and being punished for being risk averse and responsible.

There's more upside.
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THE TIME RETAIL COMES IN IS THE TIME THE HEDGE FUNDS LEAVE AND SELL THERE POSITIONS TO RETAIL-LEAVING BAGHOLDERS-YOUR ARGUMENT IS FLAWED AND COUNTER INTUITIVE TO WHAT REALLY GOES ON IN THE MARKETS:eek:
 
Quote from hottpotat0:

THE TIME RETAIL COMES IN IS THE TIME THE HEDGE FUNDS LEAVE AND SELL THERE POSITIONS TO RETAIL-LEAVING BAGHOLDERS-YOUR ARGUMENT IS FLAWED AND COUNTER INTUITIVE TO WHAT REALLY GOES ON IN THE MARKETS:eek:
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When the retail traders are fully invested the big guns are gone.

Retail is only beginning to trickle back in - check the numbers. Retail investors have been completely sidelined for many, many months. The volatility has shaken them to the core.

There is a big move up to be had, possibly retesting 14,800.
 
I'm pretty confident we are going to hit 1480-1510 in ES without much problem. The bullish percent index has be rising steadily since january. We have gone from 18% to 51% today. We should have a pullback soon, but I don't believe it will occur before that 1480-1510 range. I will be out of my longs if the bullish% drops 6% or if we reach 60%.
 
i was waiting for 1430 but wth... nice call man...

closed all longs and 80 % short and u might have bought another 10 % today

u must be one happy person at least for today
 
I started scaling into my short position at the pop this morning at the open, will add the rest at close today. I need follow through though, I don't want a one day wonder here.
 
Quote from RiceRocket:

I started scaling into my short position at the pop this morning at the open, will add the rest at close today. I need follow through though, I don't want a one day wonder here.
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the fact that everyone on ET disagreed with you suggests you might be right
 
Quote from RiceRocket:

I started scaling into my short position at the pop this morning at the open, will add the rest at close today. I need follow through though, I don't want a one day wonder here.
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I would have already taken the profit - but, GL.
 
Quote from athlonmank8:

You're really rolling the dice here taking a short.

With that said take about 30% of the pos. you would normally take.

We start breaking through this range it should be a fresh shot to 13,500 though.

Personally, i'd wait for some support to break first which i'm sure it will. Just hasn't happened yet.

We're not out of the woods yet in the equities.
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well i'll be damned lol. We got that break today.

HOLD IT. Lots of potential on this position RiceRocket.

Great timing. Was a bit late to the party this afternoon, but I'm with ya on this. It's gonna be an ugly ride, but we'll see what happens.

That 142 level is now rock solid res (SPY). ~13100 DOW
 
Quote from heywally:

I would have already taken the profit - but, GL.
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This trade is not a scalp. It's a trade I will be holding for weeks if not a month. I am short ES and bought QID. I will also be buying some puts on some NQ leaders soon. I will post.

But I never marry a position, if something changes, I will stop out. But for now, the market is acting according to the playbook.
 
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