SBUX calls up 900% overnight

Quote from nitro:


Just on that note alone I would be thinking of buying the puts on SBUX, or the synthetic put, as cold weather has a nasty habit of ruining coffee crops, causing the price of coffee to go up and SBUX profit margins to go down. But that is just me...

nitro
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Nitro, looks like you overtaxed yourself trading today. Saw you in the chatroom doing the 30 second zig zag.

So you have an excuse for the above post. Yah Mon....who's growing coffee north of Jamaica Mon?

Peace,:)rs7

Quote from white17:

Tell me what I'm missing here please. If futures traders in London are SHORTING coffee that would indicate they expect the price to drop which, if true, could improve SBUX bottom line. Don't think I'd be looking at puts if that's the case.
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You are not missing a thing. YOU must have gotten a full night's sleep and had a nice relaxing day...unlike Nitro:D :D :D :D

On a more serious note, who is doing the coffee futures trading for SBUX? Anyone? No one? I would believe they would qualify as bonafide hedgers and the price of coffee would not really be much of an issue (if at all) to their bottom line. Or....,maybe they have a crew of ex-Enron energy futures traders working in a Super Duper, high caffeine flow trading facility in Seattle.

Buy Mortimer!!

Which reminds me to once again suggest that anyone who trades should, if not actually take, (and I know a lot of you guys trade without a U-4), at least study for and pretend to prepare for the series #3. Essential stuff to know for everyone IMO. (Everyone that trades).

For those of you who are not familiar with this, it is for registration to trade commodities futures. I thought it was the only interesting and very useful exam among those I have taken: #7, big pain in the ass, but part of life
#63, a joke.
#55 totally irrelevant and incomprehensible (just know the answers, never mind WHY they are the answers.
#3 Actually helped me to understand a bit more of all markets!

And of course, who could omit the "Continuing Ed." The NASD test for Alzheimers.

Peace,
:)rs7
(Wow, ''bonafide" was not in the spellchecker.....suggested "bonfire". So out of curiosity, I went to MS Word 97....liked "bonfire" there too. Microsoft!!!!???:confused:

(doesn't like the word "spell-checker" either for that matter:):) With or without hyphen:confused:
 
Quote from optionsplayer:

Do the math fellas, that is a new phat car overnight on a measly $5,000 speculative play.
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Sure, and how many times will this $5,000 play come up a loser?

Answer : Almost always, I would say.
 
Quote from hardrock375:



Sure, and how many times will this $5,000 play come up a loser?

Answer : Almost always, I would say.
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Maybe I should have left out a 0 & said $500. It was a bit dramatical, seeing such a huge pop in those calls overnight on a relatively quiet stock like SBUX.

Like I said, if you did the math, in the sense that the 1st quarter is always the best one for SBUX because of the climate change. Also there was allot of call activity and NO put activity the day of the earnings announcement. I think that this would rank a bit above the everyday loser hope play. I agree with you, trading out of the money options where you have barely any volume can be pretty bad. THat is why I always look for signals.
 
Quote from white17:

Tell me what I'm missing here please. If futures traders in London are SHORTING coffee that would indicate they expect the price to drop which, if true, could improve SBUX bottom line. Don't think I'd be looking at puts if that's the case.
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The coffee "comment" and synopsis was made by someone else. I merely stated that I read London traders are shorting coffee futures.

My analysis was based strictly on technicals of SBUX. SBUX has a huge area of congestion at the mid $20ish level. If it should fail to fill this most recent gap, it might be worth a short term put play, but only after it takes its next leg up, which it should do over the next week.
 
Come on, do not downplay the magic in this case. There is some logic behind this kind of options phenomena. Why did some people entered call positions at that particular time transferred into open interests? There is some thing behind it which option strategist are consistently looking for. In such case, it does not important what happens next, it would be far more than enough for me to catch such an one day move.

:p
 
Quote from optionsplayer:



The coffee "comment" and synopsis was made by someone else. I merely stated that I read London traders are shorting coffee futures.

My analysis was based strictly on technicals of SBUX. SBUX has a huge area of congestion at the mid $20ish level. If it should fail to fill this most recent gap, it might be worth a short term put play, but only after it takes its next leg up, which it should do over the next week.
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That's cool . Nothing personal meant. I was just commenting that for me it didn't make sense based the the futures action you had given us. If SBUX is as you say a generally quiet stock, I'd not be inclined to trade the options at all, frankly. I think it was just Nitro trying to lead us astray so he could take the other side of the position :)
 
Quote from rs7:



Nitro, looks like you overtaxed yourself trading today. Saw you in the chatroom doing the 30 second zig zag.

So you have an excuse for the above post. Yah Mon....who's growing coffee north of Jamaica Mon?

Peace,:)rs7



You are not missing a thing. YOU must have gotten a full night's sleep and had a nice relaxing day...unlike Nitro:D :D :D :D

On a more serious note, who is doing the coffee futures trading for SBUX? Anyone? No one? I would believe they would qualify as bonafide hedgers and the price of coffee would not really be much of an issue (if at all) to their bottom line. Or....,maybe they have a crew of ex-Enron energy futures traders working in a Super Duper, high caffeine flow trading facility in Seattle.
...
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Huh?

RS7, although I am hardly an expert (or even a neophyte) on global weather patterns, I know enough about El Nino to know that weather is a non-local effect. For example, it is well known that somewhere on the face of the earth MUST be a zero wind vector. This is actually a statement in mathematics (simplicial homology theory) which states that any continuous tangent field on a 2-sphere is null at least in a point, or colloquially known as the "hairy ball theorem," i.e., "you can't comb a hairy ball smooth." I also seem to recall another theorem about two points in a sphere, and it's applications to the weather, but I cannot remember what it is (research for me to do later.) Here is a site for you to study so that you can see how "who's growing coffee north of Jamaica Mon?" is not a relevant statement in the face of El Nino. In particular, take a look at the "Impact" section.

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

As far as optionsplayers statement that "...read this morning in the Financial Times that traders in London are doing just that, going short on coffee futures," there is, or at least I do not, see anything contradictory in that statement and I fully believe that what he read is accurate. El Nino (and La Nina) are well known to have repercussions for MONTHS. Without knowing the actual coffee futures contract that is being shorted (which is not stated) it is impossible to say exactly which "event" is causing the shorting, e.g., is it the front month futures, or is it a back month that is being shorted? I would not be surprised by any of it at all, especially a weather trade based on the weather patterns being caused now by the (anticipation of) El Nino/La Nina effects in the near future.

I do get tired at the end of the day, in fact, I am usually exhausted from the "zig zag'ing" as well as the other daytrades (non-zig zag) that put food on my table. However, it rarely affects my capacity to think critically.

nitro
 
Quote from nitro:


Huh?

RS7, although I am hardly an expert .......

I do get tired at the end of the day, in fact, I am usually exhausted from the "zig zag'ing" as well as the other daytrades (non-zig zag) that put food on my table. However, it rarely affects my capacity to think critically.

nitro
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well, you surprised me...you sound like an expert now!!!

We all get tired. Me...it does affect my capacity to think. Maybe it's my teenage son. Something makes me impaired when I get home.

Hairy Ball Theory....good one! This means Mr. Market cannot ever be combed smooth?

Peace,
Rs7
 
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