Say what you want about the Wave...

Yeah, what are you thinking?

Everyone here knows that trading with the trend is wrong. Especially the long term one. What a farce. There's no money to be made trading with the long term trend. Certainly no big money. The big money is made scalping ES 1 lots.

Yeah, that's the ticket - under $5 round trip and only 2 grand to open the account. Yeehaw I'm a traderman!

Sheesh! :(
 
Originally posted by Jolly Jack
Why do'nt all you guys who have faith in EW treat us to an analysis of where we are in terms of the various waves and where we can expect to go next ?

Otherwise I'm going back to Madame Rose and her trusty crystal ball..............last week she said the markets going up but beware the full moon!
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This is a reasonable challenge to all EW enthusiasts, is it not? Let's see some real time predictions.


inandlong you had me LMAO with that last post. You can be funny as hell and I mean that in the best possible way.

"Yeehaw! I'm a traderman!":D
 
Originally posted by inandlong
but Elliot, Prechter, et al have not missed it yet.

I have been in this camp long term since 1981, although I have to admit, 10,000 blew me away. I thought we had reached the zenith at 4400.

There are posts of mine here that will attest well before this linked article was printed my thoughts about where my long term TA has us headed.

The article below, even blows that out of the water... as did 10,000!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={4DB7BBC8-CA0F-49A3-B5E9-AF20964AD5EA}&siteid=mktw

Good trading and remember....
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In,

I tell you, I don't know anything about long term trading/investing - I am trying to learn now. BUT, if the DOW gets to 1000 as Prechter suggests, I swear to you, bearing nuclear holocaust or a meteor from outer space that slams into the Earth causing a major ice age, I will take every spare dime I have and invest it, and I will forget trading and go and get a job, come back in five years, and retire...

BTW, I think I might buy his book(s)...If PTJ thinks it is a great book, who am I to argue?

nitro
 
You make me think nitro, as always.

If the Dow gets to 1000, what jobs will be out there for us to get?

On the other hand, does a collapse in P/E, from the P side only, depict a poor economy.... or a more prudent one?

Hmmm....
 
A collapse in P/E ratios from the price side only is far more likely to depict a poor economy with lousy prospects than a "prudent economy"
 
Your posts are excellent and its obvious there are a lot of guys who agree and many more who benefit from your comments.........................now all you need is a thicker skin
 
Jolly Jack,

I agree with your conclusion that Price deflation in the wake of consistent earnings would probably depict a poor economy. Yet price multiples have always been an enigma to me. I relate it to this question: does anyone pay you 12 times the earnings you generate? It seems ludicrous, yet for whatever reason, investors historically are willing to pay this in order to participate in the growth of a company.

This is way off topic so another thread might draw out some other participants.

:)
 
Originally posted by Doubter
There are only about eight times on the waves up and down when the odds of being right jump up well over 50/50. At these time the odds get up to 75-80% if you put on 4 trades in the same place on the wave then 3 should work and 1 will not.
:)
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Assuming you've correctly identified the wave count, right?
 
Shouldn't get back in here but can't ignore a good honest question. At those six points on the wave with confirming indicators it is saying that the wave count and prediction will be right 75% of the time and that there will be a significant move in the predicted direction. The rest of the time the predictions are only 50/50 so it may show general trend but low probability. In other words other than at those points the predictive odds are 50/50 or almost useless. I should have said only six points in the first post.
 
your question was " does anyone pay you 12 times the earnings you generate"

well why should they , the person who pays for your labour/time is not buying you . When you buy a share you are buying a piece of that company and you will in the normal course of events get your share of the co's earnings /dividends.

As for p/e ratios, if you take 100k and invest it in a 30 yearT-Bond that pays 5% you are effectively buying an instrument with a p/e ratio of 20............price is 100k,earnings 5k.

There is obviously a major difference between the above example and shares because with a T-Bond your capital and return is guaranteed, not so with shares.

Going back to the T-Bond, if that is our benchmark i.e. 5% per annum or 20 times earnings then what should we expect from shares ? If you've read William O'Neill's books on investing you will probably have noticed that in his studies he found that a high p/e was no barrier to a share price increasing..........in fact a high p/e was a common feature of great growth stocks.

The point is simply that a high p/e is not a bad thing and should not stop anyone from investing in a stock

When your friend prechter shouts about p/e ratios he is talking about the average for the whole market. I read somewhere that he is predicting p/e's of 4 times............at that price you would be seeing a return of 25% on your investment and if this situation comes about then interest rates will be 0% and T-Bond wiil be yielding a lot less than 5%, it is the kind of prediction that makes headlines but is really nonsensical. USA inc. grinding to a halt?.......... forget about it, it aint gonna happen.

I recently read an interview with Warren Buffet, the reporter asked him about the bear market and the economy,he said that there are times when it pays to bet against the market but that it was stupid to bet against the American economy. If I had to put my money on Prechter or Buffet who would I go for the guy who makes money or the guy who makes predictions?

I started this post to answer your simple question, apologies for all the waffle
 
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