Quote from Covertibility:
I agree with swtrader above:
"the blog comments are anxiety/jeolousy ridden remarks about the insanity"
Its when people miss the run that this sort of behavior kicks in. Or he's a piker living in an apartment and now he's looking at buying in cause, well, who in the world wants to live in an apartment. Either way, to say the RE boom is over is idiotic. If your worried about inflation, RE keeps up with it. If your worried about deflation, well everything gets hit and theres nothing to do about it.
Buy it, live in it, sell it 30 years out. You can't live in stock, can't live in a mutual fund, etc.... Easily the best investment.
I'm not saying there can't be a bust, even in the near future
I'm saying it's dangerous to BET on it, and that the blog reflects wishfull thinking
Unfortunately, those who don't own a home (of whom there are less now), are in a damned if they do/damned if they don't position, and that's what the anxiety in those blog remarks reflects
Personally, I think what greenspan has done is cruel, and deliberate - he's added risk to home purchase
He's taken a basic human need, and turned it into a speculative instrament, and one that transfers the wealth of conservative savers to borrowers and spenders.
Also, as far as 'live in it for 30 years' goes, can all Americans really do that? Think about Wes Clark's comment in the Democratic Debates 'Let them do the software in India, We'l do something else'
Well, he never got around to mentioning what that 'something else' is
Can the homebuyer really be sure the 'something else' will be in his town?
Or will he have to move to get in on it? Then a negative house fluctuation isnt quite so acedemic - My sister told me about exactly that situation in the early 90s - people haveing to move out of bay area for a job transfer ate 6 figure losses on their homes, even back then - doesnt matter that the loss in that area came back - they were long gone
That's where the problem starts corporate employment has never been less stable, and instability is part of a long term trend. And yes, corporate employment is a large percent of home owners/buyers