Say GoodBye to Countrywide

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QUOTE]Quote from dsq:

bank america is looking real stupid for buying a 2 billion dollar stake when cfc was at 18...thats a 66% loss in about 3months-who's the genius at bac that tried catching this falling knife. [/QUOTE]
 
Most likely these smart managers are just early. There
will be a turnaround and these stocks can take off like a rocket.

Quote from midlifeguy:

So is Brandes.
www.gurufocus.com
Search for them.

QUOTE]Quote from dsq:

bank america is looking real stupid for buying a 2 billion dollar stake when cfc was at 18...thats a 66% loss in about 3months-who's the genius at bac that tried catching this falling knife.
More...
[/QUOTE]
 
I am exiting 2/3 of my put position here. Although I think there is a good chance CFC is going bust, the put premium is now pricing in a 50/50 chance of bankruptcy, making it no longer the low risk/high reward proposition it was for all of 2007. It is now a coin-flip 1:1 risk/reward trade, not as appealing.

I may be early but it has hit my initial price target, and I think this is a sound point to book some profits for shorts.
 
Quote from Cutten:

I am exiting 2/3 of my put position here. Although I think there is a good chance CFC is going bust, the put premium is now pricing in a 50/50 chance of bankruptcy, making it no longer the low risk/high reward proposition it was for all of 2007. It is now a coin-flip 1:1 risk/reward trade, not as appealing.

I may be early but it has hit my initial price target, and I think this is a sound point to book some profits for shorts.
More...

Book it.

1/9/2008 3:37 PM Sell_To_Close CFC MB 60 $4.90 $29,275.01
 
Quote from Cutten:

I am exiting 2/3 of my put position here. Although I think there is a good chance CFC is going bust, the put premium is now pricing in a 50/50 chance of bankruptcy, making it no longer the low risk/high reward proposition it was for all of 2007. It is now a coin-flip 1:1 risk/reward trade, not as appealing.

I may be early but it has hit my initial price target, and I think this is a sound point to book some profits for shorts.
More...

do it. that was a serious trade. Wish I did it.
 
EXCERPT FROM LA TIMES ARTICLE

The LATimes this morning quotes Weiss Research, which rates the condition of lenders, as saying Countrywide Financial "is on a collision course with bankruptcy," adding that it "exhausted many of its extraordinary financing options last year and is ill-prepared for the rising mortgage defaults and home foreclosures that are widely expected this year."


...More: The Egan-Jones Ratings Co. says Countrywide is "withering" and "might falter if it does not receive an infusion of at least $4 billion within the next couple of weeks." (Here's one big problem with investing $4 billion in Countrywide today: the entire company is valued by investors this morning at just $3 billion; if you give them $4 billion, what do they give you? The entire company, and then what, an IOU?).
 
Quote from Cutten:

I am exiting 2/3 of my put position here. Although I think there is a good chance CFC is going bust, the put premium is now pricing in a 50/50 chance of bankruptcy, making it no longer the low risk/high reward proposition it was for all of 2007. It is now a coin-flip 1:1 risk/reward trade, not as appealing.

I may be early but it has hit my initial price target, and I think this is a sound point to book some profits for shorts.
More...

Cutten... thank you. I owe you one.
 
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