A simple minded opinion problaly unshared, that the security of Saudi Arabia is served
by maintaining US dependence on Saudi oil. The US oil industry would have to be consolidated/re-structered at lower oil prices. US production would fall in response,tipping
the balance back to Saudi oil supply. Once again our interest would align with Saudi's for
stability in the regin requiring a continued,strong US presence. Just like old times.
Low oil prices also weaken the abilities of adversaries of the Saudi's. I could be wrong, but i beleive that Iran, Russia, Syrian regime(doesnt Saudi support rebel cause), ISIS are at the top
of the list. I beleive the Saudis can bear austerity better than adversaries. c
Continued US sanctions of Iran and Russia are a factor as well towards the actors to endure low oil income.
I beleive the collapse of oil in June was more geo political than supply and demand although the timing did square well with renewed European deflation fears. I think that we got there fast
but will be here for a long time.
The reference to "fading" was to the breif rally in oil after the death of the king.
Whos your daddy, is a reference to a quip by Pedro Martinez,
Hall of fame pitcher, when he was dominated by the Yankees in deference to the Yankees.
Renewed, strong US interest in the region is the daddy. You must admit the condition of the US oil industry and the ongoing Middle East wars are huge events and unknowns at this time.
So i think $40 makes sense as we tap the bottom of the 50-45 range for the 2nd time.