Satyajit Das:Bear Market of epic Proportions
- Thread starter Oz435
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Interest recent paper by Das from his blog:
http://www.wilmott.com/blogs/satyajitdas/enclosures/perfectstorms(may2007)1.pdf
http://www.wilmott.com/blogs/satyajitdas/enclosures/perfectstorms(may2007)1.pdf
His take is accurate. The question is not, Whether a great depression will grip the US, it's a matter of When. Astute traders will get the opportunity of a lifetime to make a small fortune short selling american equities as they fall into oblivion. The question is whether they will be allowed to remove those profits from their trading accounts.
However the malaise will not be as prolonged in Asia. Asia is going to own the global economy in the coming centuries. Jim Rogers is way ahead of the curve, as usual.
However the malaise will not be as prolonged in Asia. Asia is going to own the global economy in the coming centuries. Jim Rogers is way ahead of the curve, as usual.
Don't be so certain about Asia in the short term. Never forget to ask where the money comes from.
Aussie gets its money selling raw materials to India and China. India and China get their money selling cheap good and cut price services to ... who ... ?
And if the buyer is in a recession what will happen to the seller?
Aussie gets its money selling raw materials to India and China. India and China get their money selling cheap good and cut price services to ... who ... ?
And if the buyer is in a recession what will happen to the seller?
Any specific timeframe for American equities falling into "oblivion" ? X-Mas 2030 or earlier ?
So when does a mediocre trade like myself spot the once in a lifetime chance to finally get rich shorting American stocks? When we're down 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%?
When do I know "this is armageddon finally" and go all out short and just sit on my shorts for a year or two without stops and watch the SP500 shed 80% of its value so I finally become a millionaire with zero risk?
Central banks and governments worldwide are not going to sit by idly while a protracted bear market unfolds. They will do everything they can to ensure robust economies and stock markets.
True, Japan can be cited as an example of prolonged recession but I think it can be argued that the problem there is more of a government unwilling to take bold steps to solve the mess.
Going by the way the US Fed successfully tackled the Asian crisis, LTCM, dot-com bust and even 9/11, I think they can be relied on to avert a potential sub-prime crisis too.
True, Japan can be cited as an example of prolonged recession but I think it can be argued that the problem there is more of a government unwilling to take bold steps to solve the mess.
Going by the way the US Fed successfully tackled the Asian crisis, LTCM, dot-com bust and even 9/11, I think they can be relied on to avert a potential sub-prime crisis too.
Quote from ASusilovic:
Any specific timeframe for American equities falling into "oblivion" ? X-Mas 2030 or earlier ?
exactly correct AS, we all know of nature's mean reversion ways that are present in financial markets just like in our personal lives (you eat, you shit), but there is that mind boggling question of WHEN
We can only try and consistently foresee events that occur on regular basis, it can be compared to our digestion system, we know our own body like nobody else, I know that every morning around 9am I will be going to take a dump, it's a regular event that takes place pretty much every day and about the same time (it's highly unlikely you seeing me riding a horse about that time), so I can foresee it happening tomorrow and day after and as the cycle changes I can adjust probability. Now, I also know that because all my male predecessors went bald it's high probability to expect my honourable self to follow suit, but considering my fragile age of 30ish I am slightly frustrated by same old question - WHEN