Satellites

[james_bond_3rd]

Quote from ShoeshineBoy:

But, speaking of decoys, what are the odds we really know where his sites are? About 90% if you ask me.

Why not take both approaches?

We're talking hundreds of thousands of lives here. Why not use offensive and defensive means?

Actually we know in great detail where his launch sites are. These are very hard to hide, and difficult to have decoys. We're not talking about Saddam's mobile scud missiles. The North Korea does/will not have the technology to launch long range (or even intermediate range) missiles from a mobile launcher.

Of course, the easiest thing to do is to stop them diplomatically, which can be done. Bush's refusal for the two party talk is doing great harm to us. He has no clue how to play the diplomacy game.

 

[Hook N. Sinker]

I vaguely recall the Soviets or perhaps even the USA using a laser to blind a USA satellite some time about year 1984.

I remember reading about a satellite that uses steel - no warhead, just steel - as a space weapon. I recall reading weapons are forbidden in space by treaty, but steel rods are allowed. The steel rod is aimed and released. When it hits the ground target the steel rod is travelling at 7 times the speed of sound and the target evaporates. The weapon leaves little or no evidence, it is hard to say where the attack came from or who did the attacking.

 

[ShoeshineBoy]

Quote from Hook N. Sinker:

I vaguely recall the Soviets or perhaps even the USA using a laser to blind a USA satellite some time about year 1984.

I remember reading about a satellite that uses steel - no warhead, just steel - as a space weapon. I recall reading weapons are forbidden in space by treaty, but steel rods are allowed. The steel rod is aimed and released. When it hits the ground target the steel rod is travelling at 7 times the speed of sound and the target evaporates. The weapon leaves little or no evidence, it is hard to say where the attack came from or who did the attacking.

I'm not sure I'd want to be alive in a hundred years...

 

[ShoeshineBoy]

Quote from james_bond_3rd:

Actually we know in great detail where his launch sites are. These are very hard to hide, and difficult to have decoys. We're not talking about Saddam's mobile scud missiles. The North Korea does/will not have the technology to launch long range (or even intermediate range) missiles from a mobile launcher.

But China has taken him under their wing. Why wouldn't they give him launcher technology down the road?

 

[ShoeshineBoy]

Quote from james_bond_3rd:


Of course, the easiest thing to do is to stop them diplomatically, which can be done.

Diplomacy never worked with Saddam. And diplomacy has done nothing so far with Kim - his nuclear program has moved ahead at break neck pace. Why do you think it will work on an ongoing basis?

 

[james_bond_3rd]

Quote from ShoeshineBoy:

Diplomacy never worked with Saddam. And diplomacy has done nothing so far with Kim - his nuclear program has moved ahead at break neck pace. Why do you think it will work on an ongoing basis?

I need to learn to be patient here...

Diplomacy actually did work with Saddam. When we defeated him in the first war, we kept him in power and used diplomacy to keep a watch on his weapons program. And it was successful - no WMD was found when we toppled him.

In the case of North Korea, the subtlty is lost on most Americans. We do not really have the diplomatic leverage ourselves to keep Kim in check. But the Chinese do! The only problem is, the Chinese so far do not consider North Korea's nuclear program to be a threat to them.

How do we make Chinese realize that it is a threat? By talking to the North Koreans. We talk to North Korea, offer economic assistance (but not really deliver on them), and show the Chinese that yes, it is possible for North Korea and the US to make friends. Remember, at this point, North Korea missles cannot reach any US territary, but they can reach about half of China! Once the Chinese realize that they're playing with fire by sponsoring North Korea's nuclear program, it will take but a little nudge from our side to get the Chinese into action. Then its bye-bye Kim.

We don't need to be serious with the talks, but just the talking will make the Chinese nervous. Kim is very unhappy with the Chinese. Nixon would have done this with ease. We use diplomacy, and it's up to the Chinese whether they want to use force or not. They may end up using force at the end.

 

[ShoeshineBoy]

Quote from james_bond_3rd:

I need to learn to be patient here...

Diplomacy actually did work with Saddam. When we defeated him in the first war, we kept him in power and used diplomacy to keep a watch on his weapons program. And it was successful - no WMD was found when we toppled him.

In the case of North Korea, the subtlty is lost on most Americans. We do not really have the diplomatic leverage ourselves to keep Kim in check. But the Chinese do! The only problem is, the Chinese so far do not consider North Korea's nuclear program to be a threat to them.

How do we make Chinese realize that it is a threat? By talking to the North Koreans. We talk to North Korea, offer economic assistance (but not really deliver on them), and show the Chinese that yes, it is possible for North Korea and the US to make friends. Remember, at this point, North Korea missles cannot reach any US territary, but they can reach about half of China! Once the Chinese realize that they're playing with fire by sponsoring North Korea's nuclear program, it will take but a little nudge from our side to get the Chinese into action. Then its bye-bye Kim.

We don't need to be serious with the talks, but just the talking will make the Chinese nervous. Kim is very unhappy with the Chinese. Nixon would have done this with ease. We use diplomacy, and it's up to the Chinese whether they want to use force or not. They may end up using force at the end.

Nice post. Thx. We'll see how your predictions play out on the world stage...

Yes, I agree that while Saddam and his sons were genocidal monsters, creating a pro-Iranian, petrodollar-soaked Iraqi state is certainly a much worse situation. So, yes, in that sense as well I agree that diplomacy did work...

 

[ShoeshineBoy]

Quote from james_bond_3rd:

I need to learn to be patient here...

Diplomacy actually did work with Saddam. When we defeated him in the first war, we kept him in power and used diplomacy to keep a watch on his weapons program. And it was successful - no WMD was found when we toppled him.

In the case of North Korea, the subtlty is lost on most Americans. We do not really have the diplomatic leverage ourselves to keep Kim in check. But the Chinese do! The only problem is, the Chinese so far do not consider North Korea's nuclear program to be a threat to them.

How do we make Chinese realize that it is a threat? By talking to the North Koreans. We talk to North Korea, offer economic assistance (but not really deliver on them), and show the Chinese that yes, it is possible for North Korea and the US to make friends. Remember, at this point, North Korea missles cannot reach any US territary, but they can reach about half of China! Once the Chinese realize that they're playing with fire by sponsoring North Korea's nuclear program, it will take but a little nudge from our side to get the Chinese into action. Then its bye-bye Kim.

We don't need to be serious with the talks, but just the talking will make the Chinese nervous. Kim is very unhappy with the Chinese. Nixon would have done this with ease. We use diplomacy, and it's up to the Chinese whether they want to use force or not. They may end up using force at the end.

fyi:

"October 20, Associated Press — Chinese banks stop transfers to North Korea. Chinese banks have stopped financial transfers to North Korea under government orders as part of sanctions imposed for Pyongyang's nuclear test, bank employees said Friday, October 20th, in a possibly serious blow to the country's frail economy. China is North Korea's main trading partner and aid donor, and the disruption of financial transfers is a forceful expression of Beijing's anger at the October 9th nuclear test by its isolated ally. All four major Chinese state-owned banks and British-owned HSBC Corp. have stopped financial transfers to the North. It is unclear how long the suspension would remain in effect. China is believed to be North Korea's main link to the world financial system. China's importance increased after Washington imposed sanctions on a Macau bank that served North Korean companies, making other financial institutions uneasy about dealing with Pyongyang."