Santa Claus Rally began on Black Friday 11/23

[stock_trad3r]

Quote from xiaodre:

Um, Friday had the makings of exactly what it was, which was a 180 point rally on light volume (not everyone came to work maybe for the half day, plus the fact that it was a half day?).

When all the market players came back from vacation today, the market is languishing.

(Personally I hope the market rallies, though, for AAPL sake.)

And RIMM BIDU and GOOG

Also, blackfriday was a huge success. The bears argue that black friday margins were heavily discounted on promotions and such...but there are ALWAYS dscounts and early store openings on black friday. Why is that a surprise?

The consumer is STILL strong. There will BE more buying. Black friday sales were up more than 8% over last year.

http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/stories/2007/11/26/daily3.html?jst=b_ln_hl

 

[sobemark]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

And RIMM BIDU and GOOG

Also, blackfriday was a huge success. The bears argue that black friday margins were heavily discounted on promotions and such...but there are ALWAYS dscounts and early store openings on black friday. Why is that a surprise?

The consumer is STILL strong. There will BE more buying. Black friday sales were up more than 8% over last year.

http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/stories/2007/11/26/daily3.html?jst=b_ln_hl

see you at 12500 turder

 

[frank grimes]

Hey stock, if the cosumer is "stronger than ever" and there is no creidt or subprime problems, why is the fed cutting rates? According to your rosy world, shouldn't they be raising rates? You can't have it both ways big guy. And you seem to to forgetting the rest of your "index" for three names, not very good money management in imho. Oh thats right, you don't own any of the names mentioned.

 

[drtomaso]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

And RIMM BIDU and GOOG

Also, blackfriday was a huge success. The bears argue that black friday margins were heavily discounted on promotions and such...but there are ALWAYS dscounts and early store openings on black friday. Why is that a surprise?

The consumer is STILL strong. There will BE more buying. Black friday sales were up more than 8% over last year.

http://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/stories/2007/11/26/daily3.html?jst=b_ln_hl

For a good analysis of these numbers, check out minyanville:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=14991

To sum up: Stores were open longer, discounting more (=higher expenses) to get more shoppers who ended up spending less. By my math (and someone can check this) total sales $ were up slightly more than a percent. Hopefully those extra store hours and deep discounts cost them less than that.

In short, nothing worth rallying the markets over.

 

[stock_trad3r]

Quote from frank grimes:

Hey stock, if the cosumer is "stronger than ever" and there is no creidt or subprime problems, why is the fed cutting rates? According to your rosy world, shouldn't they be raising rates? You can't have it both ways big guy. And you seem to to forgetting the rest of your "index" for three names, not very good money management in imho. Oh thats right, you don't own any of the names mentioned.

The fed is cutting rates to help spur economic growth. It is the job of the fed to cut rates during slowdowns.

 

[frank grimes]

it sounded like on your last post that you thought the fed would cut because the mkt is down, and "who would want to be short at dow 13,000" sounds like you expect the fed to do just that. Any chance the "fictional" credit or subprime problems have anything to do with the economy slowing? I'm really looking forward to your answer here.

 

[stock_trad3r]

Quote from frank grimes:

it sounded like on your last post that you thought the fed would cut because the mkt is down, and "who would want to be short at dow 13,000" sounds like you expect the fed to do just that. Any chance the "fictional" credit or subprime problems have anything to do with the economy slowing? I'm really looking forward to your answer here.

Slower economic growth has been anticipated for awhile, long before the subprime selloff in August. The consumer ultimately drives the economy, and the consumer is still strong, as well as overseas sales. This is independent of any subprime and credit problems.

 

[frank grimes]

I thought there were no credit or subprime problems. Big Banks like Wamu and Citi just got decapiteted because of valuation issues?

 

[sobemark]

Quote from frank grimes:

I thought there were no credit or subprime problems. Big Banks like Wamu and Citi just got decapiteted because of valuation issues?

who cares about them .... its all about aapl, goog, and bidu ... lol

 

[stock_trad3r]

Quote from frank grimes:

I thought there were no credit or subprime problems. Big Banks like Wamu and Citi just got decapiteted because of valuation issues?

But those are isolated incidents. There are some problems BUT they are isolated and overexagerated.

The key is growth and consumer spending. Tech companies, industrials, manufacturing, commodity stocks are still strong and have massive growth. Tech and retail is faltering.