Santa Claus Rally: 40% of the Dow’s Yearly Gain in a 17-Day Stretch

[S2007S]

Found this in an article, lets see how well history repeats.



Santa Claus Rally: 40% of the Dow’s Yearly Gain in a 17-Day Stretch
posted on: December 05, 2007


A few weeks ago, I ran the numbers of how well the stock market does for each day of the year. I looked at all of the Dow closings going back to the beginning of the index in 1896.

The best time of the year is a 17-day stretch from December 21 to January 7. Over the last 111 years, the Dow has gained an average of 3.39% during that 17-day period.

To put that in some perspective, the Dow’s annual gain is 8.32%. This means that more than 40% of the Dow’s yearly gain has come during this brief stretch which is less than 1/20 of the entire year.

 

[KiwiRoo]

Nice find...

 

[piezoe]

So, did you find any years in which the Dow was down overall during those 17 magic days?

 

[nazzdack]

Nice going! You just jinxed the trade for this year!

 

[da-net]

Looking @ some charts of the world indices and was thinking about Santa Claus Rally possibilities...

Are the economies of the world in bad enough condition to negate any rally or do you think there will be rallies because things have been bad long enough and there is a need for good news...even if it is only temporary?

If you think there will be rallies, do you think they will be earlier than normal?

 

[nazzdack]

Quote from da-net:

Looking @ some charts of the world indices and was thinking about Santa Claus Rally possibilities...

Are the economies of the world in bad enough condition to negate any rally or do you think there will be rallies because things have been bad long enough and there is a need for good news...even if it is only temporary?

If you think there will be rallies, do you think they will be earlier than normal?

1) ?......December 6, 2007! Damn! :eek:
2) Yes, every economy is in bad enough condition to negate any rally.
3) There can be rallies but also big declines which will make it tough to hold onto any position.
4) A high VIX doesn't allow for smooth uptrends to happen.
5) Wait until December 23 & 24 to do your X-mas shopping.

 

[Pekelo]

3.5% gain over 17 days?? The Dow can move that much in 2 hours...

 

[Random.Capital]

Quote from S2007S:

Over the last 111 years, the Dow has gained an average of 3.39% during that 17-day period.

The variance of returns on that "finding" is so huge that unless you have massively wide stops the expectancy for the 17-day trade is actually negative.

Surprise, surprise.

 

[FeenixRizin]

Quote from S2007S:

Found this in an article, lets see how well history repeats.



Santa Claus Rally: 40% of the Dow’s Yearly Gain in a 17-Day Stretch
posted on: December 05, 2007


A few weeks ago, I ran the numbers of how well the stock market does for each day of the year. I looked at all of the Dow closings going back to the beginning of the index in 1896.

The best time of the year is a 17-day stretch from December 21 to January 7. Over the last 111 years, the Dow has gained an average of 3.39% during that 17-day period.

To put that in some perspective, the Dow’s annual gain is 8.32%. This means that more than 40% of the Dow’s yearly gain has come during this brief stretch which is less than 1/20 of the entire year.

"gained 3.39% during that 17-day period" ...

Is that for the year? Or for that 17 day period?

 

[da-net]

Quote from nazzdack:

1) ?......December 6, 2007! Damn! :eek:
2) Yes, every economy is in bad enough condition to negate any rally.
3) There can be rallies but also big declines which will make it tough to hold onto any position.
4) A high VIX doesn't allow for smooth uptrends to happen.
5) Wait until December 23 & 24 to do your X-mas shopping.

sorry, did not see the need to start a new thread with similar thoughts...so i revived an older one..as to the shopping...is that gifts or positions? or both!