Sanders has just lost the election, and the market is loving it

Pekelo · Mar 4, 2020

Historically, whoever wins Super Tuesday gets the nomination. Now California brought forward in the schedule, this could be true even more.

As a big surprise, Biden didn't just come back on Super Tuesday but took a commanding lead in the delegate count. 453 to Sander's 375 at current count. He even won MA and he didn't even campaign there. But it isn't the states but the delegates that count. And Biden won Texas too by 3-4%. Sanders' lead in California (the biggest prize) is only 8%.

A week ago Biden was running out of money, now he is the front runner. Bloomberg might quit after his abysmal results and back Biden. Warren could back Sanders to counter act that, but small Mike's money probably counts more.

Even if they stay head to head in the upcoming months, at the convention the 700+ supers can easily sway the vote for Biden screwing Sanders out of the nomination.

ES futures are up 60 points. The market prefers a Biden nomination.

Cuddles · Mar 4, 2020

Pekelo said:
Historically, whoever wins Super Tuesday gets the nomination. Now California brought forward in the schedule, this could be true even more.

As a big surprise, Biden didn't just come back on Super Tuesday but took a commanding lead in the delegate count. 453 to Sander's 375 at current count. He even won MA and he didn't even campaign there. But it isn't the states but the delegates that count. And Biden won Texas too by 3-4%. Sanders' lead in California (the biggest prize) is only 8%.

A week ago Biden was running out of money, now he is the front runner. Bloomberg might quit after his abysmal results and back Biden. Warren could back Sanders to counter act that, but small Mike's money probably counts more.

Even if they stay head to head in the upcoming months, at the convention the 700+ supers can easily sway the vote for Biden screwing Sanders out of the nomination.

ES futures are up 60 points. The market prefers a Biden nomination.

How do you feel about your premise of having reached the top?

Pekelo · Mar 4, 2020

Here4money said:
How do you feel about your premise of having reached the top?

I don't get the question, but if it is about the actual numbers, we will come back to reevaluate them in 2-3 days when California gets its shit together.

Cuddles · Mar 4, 2020

Pekelo said:
I don't get the question, but if it is about the actual numbers, we will come back to reevaluate them in 2-3 days when California gets its shit together.

Pekelo said:
The SPX has topped at 3385, currently at 3374.

Pekelo · Mar 4, 2020

Here4money said:
Pekelo said:
The SPX has topped at 3385, currently at 3374.

You are asking me if we go back to that level? With the corona virus around most likely not. My comment here was about the market not liking a Sanders nomination and Biden taking over boosting the futures.

Cuddles · Mar 4, 2020

Pekelo said:
You are asking me if we go back to that level? With the corona virus around most likely not. My comment here was about the market not liking a Sanders nomination and Biden taking over boosting the futures.

I get your point, just trying to get a feel of how real this rebound is from people with a history of having accurate calls & gauging long-term risk. IOW, dead cat bounce that'll get wiped out in 2 days?

NY_HOOD · Mar 4, 2020

I see the futures soaring because Biden won super tuesday. I then ask myself how much of the recent decline were due to fears of a Sanders victory? I believe none.

Pekelo · Mar 4, 2020

Here4money said:
IOW, dead cat bounce that'll get wiped out in 2 days?

Sure. I am guessing not more than 2 weeks this gap will be closed. But could be today with such volatility.

But the point of this thread is, that the threat to capitalism/establishment is seemingly over. The market doesn't like uncertainty. The market is fine with a Biden nomination/presidency, not so much with Sanders.

If we get the CV under control the market should go sideways at the minimum.

Pekelo · Mar 4, 2020

Warning: Offtopic rant incoming....

So I am watching TV and the person who is being interviewed is nobody else than Judge Judy!!! Generally I like her, but I am not sure why her opinion should count more than yours or mine, but whatever, right?

I knew she was old and rich, but just in case, I looked it up. 77 year old and a HALF billionaire!!!

So she is old as fuck and rich as fuck, but they are bombarding me with her opinion??? Of course her opinion was that everything is fine and peachy, and young people shouldn't want change or for God's sake a revolution.

I am not even sure why she is working anyway. She is just getting a new show or something. She should be sailing on her giant boat to the Bahamas while being massaged by Pedro, not being bothered by poor people in a small claims court.

But what do I know about what billionaires enjoy?

[rant mode off]

piezoe · Mar 4, 2020

nice rant! And in the proper forum...too. (Meanwhile, back at the ranch, I'm patiently waiting for April Earnings Season.)