Salesforce (CRM) butterfly idea

V

vanv0029

I think the CRM July 19 expiration (monthly) 41P/38P/35P butterfly
is undervalued. My entry cost was 1.23 for a 3 point fly. My CRM
fly trades have all worked except the trade was much better before
the 4 for 1 stock split. The 38 fly is cheap because CRM stock is at 38
with seemingly 3 weeks before expiration, but I do not think much will
in the long holiday 4th of July week.

Also, I think that CRM stock price after the ORCL deal has strong forces
pushing it up (ORCL deal) and strong forces holding it down. Constantly
issuing new shares to grow revenue. Earnings are scheduled for August 19
so there should not be much news.

My old ideas are working, but my new ones are not. I was short premium going
into today's BBRY earnings stupidly. I do not know why I did not think to buy
the straddle instead of trying to guess.
 
Don't feel bad, I also had a (very small) short vol position going into BBRY earnings today. The r/r in my opinion was very favorable, and it was a killer trade last quarter when the stock re-opened unchanged. I don't have an opinion on the CRM fly except that paying almost half the intrinsic on a fly 3 weeks out seems pretty expensive.
 
Quote from noregrets:

Don't feel bad, I also had a (very small) short vol position going into BBRY earnings today. The r/r in my opinion was very favorable, and it was a killer trade last quarter when the stock re-opened unchanged. I don't have an opinion on the CRM fly except that paying almost half the intrinsic on a fly 3 weeks out seems pretty expensive.
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I don't think the CRM fly has any edge at all, as you mention is pretty expensive and the IV of the 38 strike (for the call) doesn't seem to leave much room for mistakes here.
 
You are looking for a mechanical edge from a mis-priced option according to
the option pricing formulas (really just conventions), but since everyone has
access to option pricing programs, it is unlikely purely mathematical (formal)
edges exist.

For me the edge is in the fundmentals and I think I know some facts that suggest
CRM share price is not going to move at all in three weeks (really two because of
the 4th). Given my fundamental belief, 38% IV is way high and 1.5/1.0 profit to
risk ratio is not too bad. Key is that CRM uses highly valued shares to grow
revenue thereby keeping share price high (Soros reflexivity) so hopefully their
are balanced forces keeping CRM share price from moving. Also, the dispute
plagued Americas cup race is on in San Francisco so probably not much will be
going on with CRM.

At worst I do not think I will lose money.
 
Quote from vanv0029:

You are looking for a mechanical edge from a mis-priced option according to
the option pricing formulas (really just conventions), but since everyone has
access to option pricing programs, it is unlikely purely mathematical (formal)
edges exist.

For me the edge is in the fundmentals and I think I know some facts that suggest
CRM share price is not going to move at all in three weeks (really two because of
the 4th). Given my fundamental belief, 38% IV is way high and 1.5/1.0 profit to
risk ratio is not too bad. Key is that CRM uses highly valued shares to grow
revenue thereby keeping share price high (Soros reflexivity) so hopefully their
are balanced forces keeping CRM share price from moving. Also, the dispute
plagued Americas cup race is on in San Francisco so probably not much will be
going on with CRM.

At worst I do not think I will lose money.
More...

I wish you good luck with your trade and hopefully you'll make some money out it.

I think that several edges do exist when trading volatility, not necessarily related to a simple mis-pricing of the options but to other more nuanced features of the whole volatility surface. It is those kind of edges that I fail to see with this particular fly.

I hope that in your case realized volatility in the period is less than the one implied by the fly. At least you have a quiet week coming up.
 
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