Saki's Forex Reversal Journal

[Fox-Mulder]

Quote from sakimonohito:

I'm going to post some trades again as I have been experimenting with shorter time frames and would like to see how viable the trades are in realtime. Instead of the bbcci I am using the newly cracked version of the jurik ma through metatrader 3. I am using a very fast, real time, no lag moving average. when it crosses the 2nd period bollinger fibo I enter in a reversal trade.

so currently I am short 2 units

Short EUR/USD 1.2435 Limit 1.2485 Stop 1.2475

Wellcome back,
hope things where working okay last months. Would be nice to see charts with your new methodic.
Have fun!

 

[sakimonohito]

Quote from sakimonohito:

I'm going to post some trades again as I have been experimenting with shorter time frames and would like to see how viable the trades are in realtime. Instead of the bbcci I am using the newly cracked version of the jurik ma through metatrader 3. I am using a very fast, real time, no lag moving average. when it crosses the 2nd period bollinger fibo I enter in a reversal trade.

so currently I am short 2 units

Short EUR/USD 1.2435 Limit 1.2485 Stop 1.2475

That posted trade should read short EUR/USD Limit 1.2357 Stop 1.2485...I know, so convenient of me to make an error =)

I will post charts later today.

 

[sakimonohito]

After the first posted stop out, I realize I just don't have time to stay glued to the screen for 30 minute bars. Too bad as it looked great on backtesting, now I see it's not my style to take short term trades. So using the same premise, 55 period bollinger fibos and a cracked jma 10 period ma, I'm going to post a few 4 hour charts and see what happens.

So first up, the second short on EUR/USD today.

Short EUR/USD 1.2435 Limit 1.2345 stop on monday
SHort Aud/USD .7735 Limit .7675 stop on monday after the close of trading today.

will use a 2000 USD model account size. Lets see how many trades it takes to double it =) 10? 20?

 

[sakimonohito]

here is what i see

 

[sakimonohito]

eur/usd 4 hr chart

 

[sakimonohito]

last night a little ghost visited my room and kicked my fickle little ass. he told me it doesn't matter what kind of new toy I find(JMA, BBCCI). If I don't keep my losses small i'm just a punk with a trading account. Pissed me off to no end and if that ghost had a toe, I would have dropped my STEEL toes on 'em...

so I came up with a compromise just to the please the little pecker. using a similar methodology and a few sprinkles of inspiration I am on saki's forex reversal system volume 235(not really but it sure feels like it)!

30 minute charts
Linear Weighted Average set to 55 High
Linear Weighted Average set to 55 Low
Linear Weighted Average set to 55 Close

That's it! 3 MA's which work like a wind tunnel not a clumsy crossover signal, but a price breakout off a reversal.

No trades inside the tunnel. Only trade in the direction of momentum. That's fundamental to sucessful trading. Even if you trade reversals, momentum must kick in to to be the hero who buys the bottom. Buying the bottom tick in a selloff shouldn't be my motivation for trading My motivation should be making money.

Because of the wind tunnel I can set my stops at the high or low of the day in the opposite direction of my trade. Most trades will have stops of less than 50 pips on EUR/USD. That's pretty good considering some of these trades easily go for 300-500 pips a week.

Trades can only be opened on the opposite side of the tunnel in which trading began each day. So on Friday price opened above the tunnel. The only option was to short once price dropped through the tunnel with the high of the day as the stop.

I will trade in halves. First half out after either 50 pips (as available on friday) or on the following day when price violates the tunnel in the opposite direction. This way I can stay in the trend as long as possible.


This is what I see on EUR/USD at the moment.

 

[JR97]

Nice trading. Why don't you go back to was working and apply it to the smaller frames?

Anywho.. I've also done quit a bit of VT programming. I don't have the Jurik for VT, but I programmed something pretty damn close called a Hull MA. Let me know if you're interested in it. Or you can find it at www.visualtradingcharts.com

 

[sKaLpZ]

I got a simple question:

Do your indicators and all the other work you put into setting up a trade, tell you which way a pair is headed either up or down for even the very next tic, let alone more than one tic?

 

[sakimonohito]

Quote from JR97:

Nice trading. Why don't you go back to was working and apply it to the smaller frames?

Anywho.. I've also done quit a bit of VT programming. I don't have the Jurik for VT, but I programmed something pretty damn close called a Hull MA. Let me know if you're interested in it. Or you can find it at www.visualtradingcharts.com

hey jr! funny you should pop in here. i actually took a look at your hull programming work. a few months ago it was insturmental in setting tighter stops than on previous versions of my systems. so props to you my trading friend.

i will take a look at the hull again for setting up the tunnel. i don't remember though if its possible to set the hull ma's with open close and high settings or not.

i won't be going back to the original versions due to the large stops murrey math creates when using a 64 day frame. they were eating into the gains too much. it still works though. in fact, I have been profitable the end of each month for the entire year thus far.

just trying to tweak things a bit on the risk management side. there will surely be more losses, I have come to a point in my trading that losses don't sting much anymore and gains are a matter of course. not to mention the new version simplifies things so well.

 

[sakimonohito]

Quote from sKaLpZ:

I got a simple question:

Do your indicators and all the other work you put into setting up a trade, tell you which way a pair is headed either up or down for even the very next tic, let alone more than one tic?

simple answer: yes