Saki's Forex Reversal Journal

Quote from sakimonohito:

manz,

I appreciate your feedback, however my daily and weekly daimyo readings are just too vague to be tradeable(the lookback period is not long enough on my tradestation)...not to mention now that I use stops, the losing trades would be rather substantial.

you are referring to random trader who turned 4k into 16000k, yes, he gave me the original inspiration to trade currencies like this. but I have added a few more filters to improve my entries and exits.

Also, now I use stops and I will use stops on all new positions in order to make up for my losses you refer to.

You probably didn't see the posts recently in which my system averages about 50 pips a trade and is 70% profitable for the last month. Point being, December was trendy, not as much as November, but still relatively trendy. My system works in trending markets, I just have to trade smaller time frames to exploit the reversals. I have found 60 minute bars to be the most suitable for my style.

You probably also missed the posts in which I have developed a trailing stop method to capitalize on those positions which far exceed my reversal targets and can be classified as a "trending market."

But, yes, you are right, trading reversals wasn't very profitable for two months this year. Good thing there are 10 months from the past year that were profitable. It's too bad I wasn't using stops during those two months or my trailing stop method or else I wouldn't be sitting on such a large drawdown. In fact i would have grabbed about 600 pips per pair in November if I was using my trailing stop methodology.

Anyways, I am really excited about 2005, I think my method will prove successful for many years in to the future.
More...

I look forward to your success in 2005. Goodluck.

I am a trend follower. But to diversify, I need reversal system to compliment my equity curve.

And, my mistake I missed your modifications posting.
 
I am holding USD/CHF shorts through the updraft, will reassess after the stop runs....my entry was terrible. I didn't wait for daimyo or murrey. Murrey gave me more than 50 pips profit yesterday. the same can be said for my gbp/usd entries, more than 50 pips profit easy if I waited for murrey!

oh well, i'm not panicking, I just have to break a rule for a few hours and see what's next.
 
Quote from manz66:

I look forward to your success in 2005. Goodluck.

I am a trend follower. But to diversify, I need reversal system to compliment my equity curve.

And, my mistake I missed your modifications posting.
More...

no worries, thanks for the encouragement!

try murrey math with tight stops, you'll be surprised how well it works on equities and futures.
 
I panicked this afternoon. not smart. have to get over these nerves. trading to be right now, rather than to make money.

I decided that this is an opportunity to become a better trader, so instead of pulling my stops (which held anyways), i am going to trade the range and take profits sooner.

and here's a new trade which came up...

20k EUR/USD B 1.3193 Limit 1.3300 Stop 1.3112
 
10k GBP/USD B 1.9269 Limit 1.9390+ 121
10k USD/CHF S 1.1515 Exit 1.1484 +29
10k GBP/USD B 1.9048 Exit 1.9176 +128
10k USD/CHF S 1.1623 Limit 1.1474 +149
10k EUR/USD S 1.3412 Exit 1.3410 +2
10k USD/JPY B 104.25 Stop 103.90 -35
10k USD/CHF S 1.1585 Stop 1.1620 -35
10k USD/CHF S 1.1615 Exit 1.1557 +58
10k EUR/USD B 1.3207 Exit 1.3285 +78
10k EUR/USD B 1.3259 Exit 1.3350 +91
10k EUR/GBP S .6935 Stop .6960 -25
20K GBP/USD S 1.9335 Stop 1.9415 -160
10k GBP/USD S 1.9400 Limit 1.9300+100
20k USD/CHF B 1.1360 Exit 1.1370 +20
10k EUR/USD B 1.3460 Exit 1.3530 +70
10k EUR/USD B 1.3460 Exit 1.3461 +1
10k EUR/JPY B 138.35 Exit 138.65 +30
10k GBP/USD S 1.9400 Exit 1.8820 +590
10k EUR/JPY B 138.35 Stop 138 -35
20k USD/CHF S 1.1675 Stop 1.1776 -202
20k GBP/USD B 1.8830 Exit 1.8860+60*
20k EUR/USD B 1.3193 Exit 1.3230+74*
___________________________________________
Starting Balance(assume one dollar for each pip):
2000 USD

Closed Balance
3099 USD

*I re-adjusted my exit to 1.3280 on EUR/USD this afternoon and, somehow, was filled at that price. I still can't believe my tradestation, I expect this trade to be voided. So I'm going to compromise on my pip totals. The exit on GBP/USD is an actual execution however. And, of course, so is the USD/CHF stop out.

Guess the USD is really retracing finally =)

Next USD/CHF buy sig will be very large size trade for me.

I am going to take a week off here and try to settle my nerves a bit. I am taking each trade too personally. I had a nicely profitable week but I actually lost sleep over the two losses :(
 
i got a pm from a programmer this weekend and he created a modified CCI with a bollinger band around it. its an improved indicator over the daimyo and a plain CCI for sure.

simply because the lines of support and resistance are dynamic now rather than static at +/- 100.

there is also a new component that daimyo never had. the "squeeze line"(which measures bollinger band contraction)it can predict when a nice size price move will happen. it just so happens that these moves are followed by reversals when the outer bollinger-fibo is pierced.

i really like this new indicator because the bollingers get really tight during trend phases, so there aren't any signals until the trend is definetly over. during the november moves you can barely see the CCI because its buried inside the tight bollingers. a sign there aren't any reversals regardless of where price is in relation to the bollinger fibos.

in the back of my mind i am laughing as i cursed the cci for it sluggishness in the past. but it wasn't the cci, it was the price action. it was trending, and this system i trade is a reversal system. the solution was to find a way to stay out, or be in, with the trend.

well, i finally found it.
 

Attachments

This week, I did make one trade. It was the big one I was anticipating on the USD/CHF to try and average out of my huge drawdown from october. I bought 100k USD/CHF at an average price of 1.1655, for the total of my trades my break even price is now 1.1885. Took partial profits on half at 1.1800. I won't count it towards my posted trades, but I am sure relieved to have made a huge chunk of my drawdown back in less than 24 hours. There's nothing as satisfying being right when the big money is on the table.

See ya next week!
 

Attachments

20K GBP/USD S 1.8695 Limit 1.8615 Stop 1.8750

Open trade(based on model size portfolio)
10k USD/CHF B 1.1655 Limit 1.2146 Stop 1.1730

Indicators gave a buy sig yesterday but the slope of the BBCCI was far too flat. I took a scalp for 10 pips on the 0/8th MML but I didn't have any conviction in the rally. Spoofed by my own system today.

The sell, looks much better here.
 
10k GBP/USD B 1.9269 Limit 1.9390+ 121
10k USD/CHF S 1.1515 Exit 1.1484 +29
10k GBP/USD B 1.9048 Exit 1.9176 +128
10k USD/CHF S 1.1623 Limit 1.1474 +149
10k EUR/USD S 1.3412 Exit 1.3410 +2
10k USD/JPY B 104.25 Stop 103.90 -35
10k USD/CHF S 1.1585 Stop 1.1620 -35
10k USD/CHF S 1.1615 Exit 1.1557 +58
10k EUR/USD B 1.3207 Exit 1.3285 +78
10k EUR/USD B 1.3259 Exit 1.3350 +91
10k EUR/GBP S .6935 Stop .6960 -25
20K GBP/USD S 1.9335 Stop 1.9415 -160
10k GBP/USD S 1.9400 Limit 1.9300+100
20k USD/CHF B 1.1360 Exit 1.1370 +20
10k EUR/USD B 1.3460 Exit 1.3530 +70
10k EUR/USD B 1.3460 Exit 1.3461 +1
10k EUR/JPY B 138.35 Exit 138.65 +30
10k GBP/USD S 1.9400 Exit 1.8820 +590
10k EUR/JPY B 138.35 Stop 138 -35
20k USD/CHF S 1.1675 Stop 1.1776 -202
20k GBP/USD B 1.8830 Exit 1.8860+60
20k EUR/USD B 1.3193 Exit 1.3230+74
20K GBP/USD S 1.8695 Exit 1.8665 +60*
___________________________________________
Starting Balance(assume one dollar for each pip):
2000 USD

Closed Balance
3159 USD

*Entry was far too low to be confident the trade can yield much more.
Will look to reshort later today.

Open trade
10k USD/CHF B 1.1655 Limit 1.2146 Stop 1.1730
 
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