Saki's Forex Reversal Journal

10k GBP/USD B 1.9269 Limit 1.9390+ 121
10k USD/CHF S 1.1515 Exit 1.1484 +29
10k GBP/USD B 1.9048 Exit 1.9176 +128
10k USD/CHF S 1.1623 Limit 1.1474 +149
10k EUR/USD S 1.3412 Exit 1.3410 +2
10k USD/JPY B 104.25 Stop 103.90 -35
10k USD/CHF S 1.1585 Stop 1.1620 -35
10k USD/CHF S 1.1615 Exit 1.1557 +58
10k EUR/USD B 1.3207 Exit 1.3285 +78
10k EUR/USD B 1.3259 Exit 1.3350 +91
10k EUR/GBP S .6935 Stop .6960 -25
20K GBP/USD S 1.9335 Stop 1.9415 -160
10k GBP/USD S 1.9400 Limit 1.9300+100
20k USD/CHF B 1.1360 Exit 1.1370 +20
10k EUR/USD B 1.3460 Exit 1.3530 +70
10k EUR/USD B 1.3460 Exit 1.3461 +1*
___________________________________________
Starting Balance(assume one dollar for each pip):
2000 USD

Closed Balance
2592 USD

Open Trades
10k GBP/USD S 1.9400 Limit 1.8810 Stop 1.9350

*From the low, the MML 4/8ths price was on the exact high bar of the day. Like I said, that Murrey sure makes some fine lines!
 
Quote from sakimonohito:

Well, what started out so promising this year has turned into a complete wash. With these series of trades, all profits from the first half of the year have been erased. I have run up my account more than 4 fold only to drain it back down to a pittance!

Still holding my USD/CHF(1.2500) EUR/GBP*(.6875) trades for equilibrium.

Looking at going back to the Daimyo over the CCI too. The CCI becomes very static on heavy trending days, the daimyo just keeps going with the trend, this prevents premature entries.

At the end of the year, my experience is that stops are near impossible to trade without.

This really pisses me off as I thought I had found a way around the stop running. I thought my system would thrive on that, but the timing just isn't good enough. If I traded blindly from a chart with just a trendline, I would be long dollars now and there would be no issue of timing. As a contrarian by nature I hate buying breakouts, it usually doesn't work anyways!

The whole point of a trading journal is to find what works and what doesn't. I admit I am an emotional trader, one of the sins of trading is to get too emotional. But I just don't care about this rule. I want my trades to feel special, as though I have made a method that makes money and which I am proud of. So I can't just buy breakouts like the rest of the madding crowd, I am determined to buy lows and sell highs. I am not going to give up on this.

So from tommorrow I will papertrade for the next month. I will start with a model account of only 2k and trade 10k lots. I will take no more than 3 positions at a time. I will always post a stop with all my trades.

Attached is a EUR/USD comparison of CCI and Daimyo signals. Daimyo has yet to form a buy signal today, CCI had one already and it was crap!
More...

Hi,

I was keeping track of you before your vacation. Then currencies started trending big time against usd. I knew those using reversal system will be in trouble. I know three other people who trades like you, and all of them before month of October were doing great whole year.

I suggest you can look at weekly chart and use cci or Daimyo plus your fibo bollinger to enter trade. I think you will do better.

I know one person last year started a journal in ET 2003 september with $4000 and by july or august 2004 increased it to over $16,000 using weekly cci reversal system. Good luck.

 
Quote from manz66:

Hi,

I was keeping track of you before your vacation. Then currencies started trending big time against usd. I knew those using reversal system will be in trouble. I know three other people who trades like you, and all of them before month of October were doing great whole year.

I suggest you can look at weekly chart and use cci or Daimyo plus your fibo bollinger to enter trade. I think you will do better.

I know one person last year started a journal in ET 2003 september with $4000 and by july or august 2004 increased it to over $16,000 using weekly cci reversal system. Good luck.
More...

manz,

I appreciate your feedback, however my daily and weekly daimyo readings are just too vague to be tradeable(the lookback period is not long enough on my tradestation)...not to mention now that I use stops, the losing trades would be rather substantial.

you are referring to random trader who turned 4k into 16000k, yes, he gave me the original inspiration to trade currencies like this. but I have added a few more filters to improve my entries and exits.

Also, now I use stops and I will use stops on all new positions in order to make up for my losses you refer to.

You probably didn't see the posts recently in which my system averages about 50 pips a trade and is 70% profitable for the last month. Point being, December was trendy, not as much as November, but still relatively trendy. My system works in trending markets, I just have to trade smaller time frames to exploit the reversals. I have found 60 minute bars to be the most suitable for my style.

You probably also missed the posts in which I have developed a trailing stop method to capitalize on those positions which far exceed my reversal targets and can be classified as a "trending market."

But, yes, you are right, trading reversals wasn't very profitable for two months this year. Good thing there are 10 months from the past year that were profitable. It's too bad I wasn't using stops during those two months or my trailing stop method or else I wouldn't be sitting on such a large drawdown. In fact i would have grabbed about 600 pips per pair in November if I was using my trailing stop methodology.

Anyways, I am really excited about 2005, I think my method will prove successful for many years in to the future.
 
10k GBP/USD B 1.9269 Limit 1.9390+ 121
10k USD/CHF S 1.1515 Exit 1.1484 +29
10k GBP/USD B 1.9048 Exit 1.9176 +128
10k USD/CHF S 1.1623 Limit 1.1474 +149
10k EUR/USD S 1.3412 Exit 1.3410 +2
10k USD/JPY B 104.25 Stop 103.90 -35
10k USD/CHF S 1.1585 Stop 1.1620 -35
10k USD/CHF S 1.1615 Exit 1.1557 +58
10k EUR/USD B 1.3207 Exit 1.3285 +78
10k EUR/USD B 1.3259 Exit 1.3350 +91
10k EUR/GBP S .6935 Stop .6960 -25
20K GBP/USD S 1.9335 Stop 1.9415 -160
10k GBP/USD S 1.9400 Limit 1.9300+100
20k USD/CHF B 1.1360 Exit 1.1370 +20
10k EUR/USD B 1.3460 Exit 1.3530 +70
10k EUR/USD B 1.3460 Exit 1.3461 +1
10k EUR/JPY B 138.35 Exit 138.65 +30*
___________________________________________
Starting Balance(assume one dollar for each pip):
2000 USD

Closed Balance
2622 USD

Open Trades
10k GBP/USD S 1.9400 Limit 1.8810 Stop 1.9350
10k EUR/JPY B 138.35 Limit 143 Stop 138

*really terrible entry, so I took minor profits to minimize my risk. 4/8th MML was nearly grazed by two ticks but then sharply reversed. With the dollar in rebound mode EUR/JPY will be the "sour grapes" proxy trade for those who refuse to buy dollars.
 
10k GBP/USD B 1.9269 Limit 1.9390+ 121
10k USD/CHF S 1.1515 Exit 1.1484 +29
10k GBP/USD B 1.9048 Exit 1.9176 +128
10k USD/CHF S 1.1623 Limit 1.1474 +149
10k EUR/USD S 1.3412 Exit 1.3410 +2
10k USD/JPY B 104.25 Stop 103.90 -35
10k USD/CHF S 1.1585 Stop 1.1620 -35
10k USD/CHF S 1.1615 Exit 1.1557 +58
10k EUR/USD B 1.3207 Exit 1.3285 +78
10k EUR/USD B 1.3259 Exit 1.3350 +91
10k EUR/GBP S .6935 Stop .6960 -25
20K GBP/USD S 1.9335 Stop 1.9415 -160
10k GBP/USD S 1.9400 Limit 1.9300+100
20k USD/CHF B 1.1360 Exit 1.1370 +20
10k EUR/USD B 1.3460 Exit 1.3530 +70
10k EUR/USD B 1.3460 Exit 1.3461 +1
10k EUR/JPY B 138.35 Exit 138.65 +30
10k GBP/USD S 1.9400 Exit 1.8820 +590
___________________________________________
Starting Balance(assume one dollar for each pip):
2000 USD

Closed Balance
3202 USD

Open Trades
10k EUR/JPY B 138.35 Limit 143 Stop 138
 
anyway i am on new computer and forgot how to load the daimyo indicator..into CMS..anyone want to post a link..thanks


a link for that CCI Reversal Indicator..will check around..still I think Murrey math levels are crucial
 
10k GBP/USD B 1.9269 Limit 1.9390+ 121
10k USD/CHF S 1.1515 Exit 1.1484 +29
10k GBP/USD B 1.9048 Exit 1.9176 +128
10k USD/CHF S 1.1623 Limit 1.1474 +149
10k EUR/USD S 1.3412 Exit 1.3410 +2
10k USD/JPY B 104.25 Stop 103.90 -35
10k USD/CHF S 1.1585 Stop 1.1620 -35
10k USD/CHF S 1.1615 Exit 1.1557 +58
10k EUR/USD B 1.3207 Exit 1.3285 +78
10k EUR/USD B 1.3259 Exit 1.3350 +91
10k EUR/GBP S .6935 Stop .6960 -25
20K GBP/USD S 1.9335 Stop 1.9415 -160
10k GBP/USD S 1.9400 Limit 1.9300+100
20k USD/CHF B 1.1360 Exit 1.1370 +20
10k EUR/USD B 1.3460 Exit 1.3530 +70
10k EUR/USD B 1.3460 Exit 1.3461 +1
10k EUR/JPY B 138.35 Exit 138.65 +30
10k GBP/USD S 1.9400 Exit 1.8820 +590
10kEUR/JPY B 138.35 Stop 138 -35
___________________________________________
Starting Balance(assume one dollar for each pip):
2000 USD

Closed Balance
3167 USD
 
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