Saki's Forex Reversal Journal

EUR/USD B 1.2176 Limit 1.2500
GBP/USD B 1.8124, 1.7953 Limit 1.8437
USD/CHF B 1.2661 Limit 1.3110
EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795 Limit .6570
GBP/JPY B 200.10, 196.90 Limit 204
NZD/USD B .6580, .6486 Limit .6740
EUR/AUD S 1.7502* Limit 1.7180


Now the patience game begins. I am averging into longerterm positions. I have been successful thus far because of my patience, holding positions for two weeks or more, now I am looking at time frames of one to two months(allowing for the limit prices to be reached, I suspect it will take this long). I will not automatically exit when Daimyo reaches a reversal signal on the 4 hour time frame. For example, EUR/USD has already reached a reversal signal this week to sell, but I am looking at the daily daimyo indicator and it has a long way to go.
 
Quote from sakimonohito:

Thanks for your comments. Yes, I intend to modify the system once the daily trading range has been violated, I will average in less frequently. I anticipate the trading range will be broken towards the end of the year. When a new prices for the year are carved out, I will expand my primary timeframe(from 4hour to daily). This is an experimental system once which I don't have complete faith in, however it seems to work well at present.
More...

Thanks for the insights. I love trading reversals myself, but I find MACD to be the best indicator for me. When used as a trend indicator and a momentum indicator, I think it's the best... at least, best for me. I just find it helps cut down on the drawdowns. Not all the time, of course, but every little bit helps.
 
Quote from SteveL91:

I love trading reversals myself, but I find MACD to be the best indicator for me.
More...

My primary indicator, the Daimyo, has a MACD component built into its moving average. I agree, MACD is very helpful in minimizing drawdowns. But then, so is entering at the beginning of a trend:cool:
 
Quote from sakimonohito:

My primary indicator, the Daimyo, has a MACD component built into its moving average. I agree, MACD is very helpful in minimizing drawdowns. But then, so is entering at the beginning of a trend:cool:
More...

Very true. I don't mind being a little early - you have to expect it if you're going to play reversals - but I just hate the feeling it's going to be perpetuous, which is why I don't go strictly off overbought/oversold. Regardless, whatever works!
 
EUR/USD B 1.2176 Limit 1.2500
GBP/USD B 1.8124, 1.7953 Limit 1.8437
USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611* Limit 1.3110
EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795 Limit .6570
GBP/JPY B 200.10, 196.90 Limit 204
NZD/USD B .6580, .6486 Limit .6740
EUR/AUD S 1.7502 Limit 1.7180
 
EUR/USD B 1.2176 Limit 1.2500
GBP/USD B 1.8124, 1.7953, 1.7715* Limit 1.8125
USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611 Limit 1.3110
EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795 Limit .6570
GBP/JPY B 200.10, 196.90 Limit 204
NZD/USD B .6580, .6486 Limit .6740
EUR/AUD S 1.7502 Limit 1.7180
 
Quote from SteveL91:

Very true. I don't mind being a little early - you have to expect it if you're going to play reversals - but I just hate the feeling it's going to be perpetuous, which is why I don't go strictly off overbought/oversold. Regardless, whatever works!
More...

By the way, I just wanted to clarify that my system uses three indicators for entry, the daimyo, bollingers with fiblines and square of 9 levels. If the market is in fact trending, it is STILL possible to buy an oversold condition and trade with the trend. This can still be defined as a reversal. For example USD/CHF is trending up at the close of the week. I scaled into my first position when I received an oversold indication. However, I didn't consider it an anti-trend trade in any way, eventhough the price continued 100pips or so below my entry.

Also, I am only entering into trades which earn overnight interest. This is hardly an indication of fighting the trend. But then again, on shorter timeframes I am clearly on the wrong side of the trend, and consistently so. But if I follow the trend of the stronger yielding currencies, I will be with the trend most of the time. The only time this will not work is when the interest rates of a central bank change the balance between the two currencies. This week, GBP seemed to be trading as though the UK central bank would be lowering rates, affecting my 3 GBP positions. We will see in a few weeks how my modified strategy will play out.

I have attached the Daimyo indicator, finally, since I never did it when I began this journal 2 months ago. It works ONLY in the visualtrading platform(http://cms-forex.com). Its free to use and the quotes and charts are real time. Not a solicitation in any way so please don't be weary of my intentions. And anyways, I don't worry too much about my broker as I trade long term so my fills are never an issue. I'm only sharing my trading results to try and get feedback from the other forex traders on the board here.
 

Attachments

EUR/USD B 1.2176 Limit 1.2500
GBP/USD B 1.8124, 1.7953, 1.7815** Limit 1.8125
USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611 Limit 1.3110
EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795 Limit .6570
GBP/JPY B 200.10, 196.90, 193.84* Limit 200
NZD/USD B .6580, .6486 Limit .6740
EUR/AUD S 1.7502 Limit 1.7180

**Had the wrong entry, I WISH I entered at 1.7715!:(
 
EUR/USD B 1.2176 Limit 1.2500
GBP/USD B 1.8124, 1.7953, 1.7815 Limit 1.8125
USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611 Limit 1.3110
EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795 Limit .6570
GBP/JPY B 200.10, 196.90, 193.84 Limit 200
NZD/USD B .6580, .6486 Limit .6740
EUR/AUD S 1.7502, 1.7679* Limit 1.6875
 
Feeling a little hairy so I'm taking some profits here, this has always turned out to be a mistake, a lapse in discipline, as my limit prices have reached on 98 out of 100 trades it seems, but only the market knows what will happen my friends!

Closed Trades
GBP/JPY B 193.84 Sold 197.04 +320
GBP/USD B 1.7815 Sold 1.7985 +170
EUR/AUD S 1.7679 Cover 1.7472 +207

Current Positions
EUR/USD B 1.2176 Limit 1.2500
GBP/USD B 1.8124, 1.7953 Limit 1.8125
USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611 Limit 1.3110
EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795 Limit .6570
GBP/JPY B 200.10, 196.90 Limit 200
NZD/USD B .6580, .6486 Limit .6740
EUR/AUD S 1.7502 Limit 1.6875
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top