Saki's Forex Reversal Journal

[JR97]

5:00 PM EST is the time I calculate all of my pivots from.. standard, cams, and dynamic.

Mainly because that's the daily candle open/lose from the data source... CMS VT API.

I've got an autopivot plotter for MT4 which as an input parameter for time of day to calculate from and I still use 5:00 pm EST even though MT4 has a different "day" hour.

In my few years of pivot trading, I've found that the time of day isn't critical as long as you calculate during a slow period that will encompass the previous periods High and Low. The lines shift a bit, but all will still be relevent. One thing I always tell people who ask about time of day calculations is that Pivot Points should really be called Pivot Areas. 10-20 pip difference between calculating on a different time period shouldn't make or break the bank.

 

[sakimonohito]

interesting you should say that pivot time doesn't matter. I have plotted the reversal times for the previous day on the chart I posted and it seems to make quite a difference.

Todays very accurate levels were based on 10 am CET and they were quite different than 5pm EST. CET is Metatradertime if I'm not mistaken.

 

[JR97]

Quote from sakimonohito:

interesting you should say that pivot time doesn't matter. I have plotted the reversal times for the previous day on the chart I posted and it seems to make quite a difference.

Todays very accurate levels were based on 10 am CET and they were quite different than 5pm EST. CET is Metatradertime if I'm not mistaken.

They key is that you include the previous periods major high/low. 10AM CST vs 5:00 PM EST would be a pretty big difference in previous period H/L wouldn't it? Anywho... the major question is usually 5:00 PM EST or midnight EST.

 

[sakimonohito]

I missed the point I was trying to make. I looked at the most consistent time for turning points, not exactly but I figure its as close as necessary,(10 am CET) rather than the traditionally quietest time for trading 5 pm EST. And it seemed to make the pivots more accurate.

Have you ever calculated pivots from expected times of volatility rather than the end of trading?

 

[JR97]

Quote from sakimonohito:

I missed the point I was trying to make. I looked at the most consistent time for turning points, not exactly but I figure its as close as necessary,(10 am CET) rather than the traditionally quietest time for trading 5 pm EST. And it seemed to make the pivots more accurate.

Have you ever calculated pivots from expected times of volatility rather than the end of trading?

Interesting. No, I've never really done that, although my dynamic pivots sort of do that.. they adjust during the day's volitility. Subsequently, the are more accurate, but being dynamic, the values can change as new highs/lows are made. And of course at then end of the day they appear spot on.

(what is CET?)

 

[sakimonohito]

Quote from JR97:

Interesting. No, I've never really done that, although my dynamic pivots sort of do that.. they adjust during the day's volitility. Subsequently, the are more accurate, but being dynamic, the values can change as new highs/lows are made. And of course at then end of the day they appear spot on.

(what is CET?)

CET= Central European Time

I realize Friday was an ideal range trading day. In the coming days I will forward test my intra-day strategy. Currently I'm not able to trade the open of the NY session everyday, but a few days this week I will be posting trades real-time if they appear. Let's see if this strategy is viable going forward.

JR, do you know of any way to actually backtest Murrey Math Frames? I've never seen anyone post a result so I assumed it wasn't possible.

 

[Boy Plunger]

Watch the Dollar shorts scramble for liquidity on tommorrow's open. Oil is flowing, the greenback will be bought in a panic. Even if I'm wrong, I'm just following my system anyways. It's just fun to sound like my opinion counts for something =)



You mention Oil is flowing? the greenback(dollar) will be bought in a panic.

My concern is not whether you are wrong or right but how you make this distinction?

Has anyone developed a trading method/model where one can hedge currencies, commodities, equities, and treasuries?

This is what i am working on. An all around model that can act independently or interactively with soft and hard asset classes.

It takes time. Thanks for this thread. You guys talk about some interesting stuff.

 

[sakimonohito]

Open Trades:

10k Short EUR/USD 1.2540 Stop 1.2415

Closed Trades:
10k Short AUD/USD .7735 Limit .7675 +60
10k Short EUR/USD 1.2435 Exit 1.2370+65
10k Long USD/CHF 1.2500 Exit 1.2540+40
10k Short AUD/USD .7735 Exit .7685 +45
20k Long USD/JPY Limit 110 +90
10k Short AUD/USD .7735 Exit .7565+170
10k Long USD/CHF 1.2505 Exit 1.2710 +205
10k Short EUR/USD 1.2435 Exit 1.2170 +265
10k Long EUR/USD 1.2193 Limit 1.2270+77
10k AUD/USD .7533 Exit .7570+37
10k Long AUD/USD .7533 Exit .7580+47
10k Long USD/CAD 1.1893 Exit 1.1975+82
10k Long EUR/USD 1.2193 Exit 1.2291+98
10k Long USD/CAD 1.1893 Exit 1.1899+6
10k Long USD/CHF 1.2578 Stop 1.2509 -69
10k Short EUR/USD 1.2293 Exit 1.2350 +43
10k Short EUR/USD 1.2577 Exit 1.2518+59
10k Short GBP/USD 1.8468 Exit 1.8420+48
10k Short EUR/USD 1.2540 Exit 1.2478+62
20k Short GBP/USD 1.8400 Exit 1.8390 +20
Model Account Balance: 3390

 

[sakimonohito]

Quote from Cluseau:

Watch the Dollar shorts scramble for liquidity on tommorrow's open. Oil is flowing, the greenback will be bought in a panic. Even if I'm wrong, I'm just following my system anyways. It's just fun to sound like my opinion counts for something =)


You mention Oil is flowing? the greenback(dollar) will be bought in a panic.

My concern is not whether you are wrong or right but how you make this distinction?


It takes time. Thanks for this thread. You guys talk about some interesting stuff.

Why does this "concern" you (are you worried I might say something incorrect)?

I said it more than a week ago. At the time, the weekend press said oil reserves were released and I saw this as a positive for the dollar. Liquidity was a factor because on Monday the US banking system was closed for labor day, I believed that was why the EURO was rising on Monday.

Just some amateur analysis, which, from the look of my profit total, was pretty accurate.

Good trading to you!

 

[SteveL91]

Way to go, Saki. I've been following your thread since its inception, and I must say, all of your strategies have been very impressive. I'm not really trading that much right now, but I may have to try and play around with your platform and see what I can come up with. While the "method" I pre-dominantly follow right now seems fairly accurate, it's just ungodly slow.

I'm just going with a very simple EMA cross-over system on (usually) 2hr charts. The accuracy seems fairly decent, but I'm a perfectionist and I hate giving up so much on entries and exits.

Again, congrats!

Steve