Safest way to make 1% per month

[userque]

Again, if you compressed the Yahoo chart to the start and end dates, it not only doesn't show TQQQ increasing faster than QQQ, but it decreases! Therefore between any two points longer than a day apart, it's demonstrably possible for TQQQ to not increase faster than QQQ, and in fact even do the opposite of QQQ. I guess I just don't understand, do you believe those two Yahoo points are false, or that that couldn't happen for several points in a row if you compressed your graph to showing several weeks per point?

Let's just cut to the chase.

Show us the Yahoo comparison from 2016 to present. Compress it how you like. Let's see if it's consistent with your chart.

 

[Sig]

Never said nor suggested that anything was impossible.

I don't need you to explain anything. I was likely going to have to explain things to you.

No. I wouldn't have said that.

Your chart is inconsistent with at least one commercial charting platform. Pulling up another just to show you it's also inconsistent with another commercial platform would be a waste of time.

I did this sort of thing many years ago.

You've been the one referencing Dunning Krueger and etc. When I start lobbing grenades, you'll know.

I haven't seen "all of their" charts. Just yours. And yours is wrong.

That was my original intent. To teach you for free. Now, you couldn't pay me.

Never said that.

Never said that. Not only are you bad at math; you're bad at bullshitting. That was a grenade.

Again, I haven't seen "all of their" charts. Only yours. And yours is wrong.

I'm neither right nor wrong. I asked you to explain why only your chart shows QQQ climbing faster than TQQQ. That's a fact that anyone can clearly see by looking at your chart. Then they can look at a commercial chart and see that, during the same time frame, TQQQ climbs faster than QQQ.

So then let's cut to the chase indeed. You are asserting that a 3X percentage daily return index of QQQ started just before the .com bust would be where, exactly, compared to the QQQ index today, or in 2020 say? If you're so certain I'm wrong and you've done this yourself, then surely you can enlighten us all on what the correct answer is? Seems simple enough, but let me guess, you're through providing a free education and I wouldn't grasp it anyway.... At at the end of the day, are you capable of actually coming up with an answer or just telling others their answer must be wrong?

 

[userque]

So then, you are asserting that a 3X percentage daily return index of QQQ started just before the .com bust would be where, exactly, compared to the QQQ index today, or in 2020 say? If you're so certain I'm wrong and you've done this yourself, then surely you can enlighten us all on what the correct answer is? Seems simple enough, but let me guess, you're through providing a free education and I wouldn't grasp it anyway.... At at the end of the day, are you capable of actually coming up with an answer or just telling others their answer must be wrong?

You tried it, but got the same results that I got, right. Instead of just saying that, you figured you'd try again to trigger me into helping you.

Look at the y-scale of the commercial charts. They go from positive to negative percentages. Now look at your y-scale.

But that doesn't explain how QQQ can climb faster than TQQQ on your chart. It's almost as if they are internally reversed.

Make your y-axis calculations like the commercial products. And if that doesn't fix it,
post your spreadsheet if you want me/others to download it and take a look.

 

[traider]

Leverage 3x, pray you don't blow up. Lower your leverage every month with gains and selling. If you are lucky can beat 10%

 

[newwurldmn]

You tried it, but got the same results that I got, right. Instead of just saying that, you figured you'd try again to trigger me into helping you.

Look at the y-scale of the commercial charts. They go from positive to negative percentages. Now look at your y-scale.

But that doesn't explain how QQQ can climb faster than TQQQ on your chart. It's almost as if they are internally reversed.

Make your y-axis calculations like the commercial products. And if that doesn't fix it,
post your spreadsheet if you want me/others to download it and take a look.

in a strictly up market, the TQQQ will perform better. in a strictly down market the TQQQ will perform worse. In a sideways market the TQQQ will perform worse than the QQQ. This has to do with downdrift component in returns.

So there will be periods that the TQQQ will do a lot better than the QQQ. However, I have never heard anyone say that the TQQQ is a safe investment. These products were designed to satisfy retail investor lust for leveraged returns while ultimately going to zero for the benefit of the sponsoring financial entity.

 

[Sig]

You tried it, but got the same results that I got, right. Instead of just saying that, you figured you'd try again to trigger me into helping you.

Look at the y-scale of the commercial charts. They go from positive to negative percentages. Now look at your y-scale.

But that doesn't explain how QQQ can climb faster than TQQQ on your chart. It's almost as if they are internally reversed.

Make your y-axis calculations like the commercial products. And if that doesn't fix it,
post your spreadsheet if you want me/others to download it and take a look.

No, you didn't try it and you've never even attempted to provide an answer to the underlying question of how a TQQQ index would have performed from .com days. You showed a graph with a different starting point and therefore completely different scales. And as I look back at it, I think it is the fact that by the point in the chart you're looking at the TQQQ is tiny and QQQ is huge you're never going to be able to draw a line on the chart to compare slopes which seems to be the issue you're hanging everything on.

Again, you wanted to cut to the chase so let's do that. I am claiming a 3X daily return index based on QQQ would have fallen 99.9% from it's pre dot.com highs and be lower than QQQ today. Do you disagree with that statement, and if so, what do you think the max drawdown and current state would be? If you don't have an answer to that or don't disagree, then wtf is your point again, cutting to the chase as you say?

By the way, it's interesting that the folks at TQQQ - Is It A Good Investment for a Long Term Hold Strategy? (optimizedportfolio.com) came up with this which looks mighty familiar. What does your chart of the period look like again?

and the folks at

 

[taowave]

Just passing by,but you are aware of the effect of path dependency.

Look at the divergence between returns on 3 consecutive days

Day 1 = down 20 percent
Day 2 = up 15 percent
Day 3= up 15 percent.

Non lever = Up 5.8 percent
3x lever. = Down 15 .9 percent

Curiously, on the left side of the graph, TQQQ seems to decline at about three times the rate of QQQ; however, on the right side, it doesn't converge towards QQQ at all. I would think that it should rise at three times the rate QQQ is rising, and close the distance to QQQ during the rise. It appears to be rising at a factor of less than one, with respect to QQQ.

How do you explain this?

 

[userque]

Just passing by,but you are aware of the effect of path dependency.

Look at the divergence between returns on 3 consecutive days

Day 1 = down 20 percent
Day 2 = up 15 percent
Day 3= up 15 percent.

Non lever = Up 5.8 percent
3x lever. = Down 15 .9 percent

I'm aware, thanks. I accounted for that in my posts.

 

[userque]

No, you didn't try it and you've never even attempted to provide an answer to the underlying question of how a TQQQ index would have performed from .com days. You showed a graph with a different starting point and therefore completely different scales. And as I look back at it, I think it is the fact that by the point in the chart you're looking at the TQQQ is tiny and QQQ is huge you're never going to be able to draw a line on the chart to compare slopes which seems to be the issue you're hanging everything on.

Again, you wanted to cut to the chase so let's do that. I am claiming a 3X daily return index based on QQQ would have fallen 99.9% from it's pre dot.com highs and be lower than QQQ today. Do you disagree with that statement, and if so, what do you think the max drawdown and current state would be? If you don't have an answer to that or don't disagree, then wtf is your point again, cutting to the chase as you say?

By the way, it's interesting that the folks at TQQQ - Is It A Good Investment for a Long Term Hold Strategy? (optimizedportfolio.com) came up with this which looks mighty familiar. What does your chart of the period look like again?

and the folks at

The y axis is of the balance, and not of the percentage change, as is the case with commercial charting platforms.

This fact, combined with a very low balance for TQQQ after the fall, and a relatively very high value for QQQ after the fall, is probably likely for the skewed 'looking' results.

The 3x effect is completely overwhelmed by the huge discrepancy in the balances between the two instruments.

Your y-scale was ambiguous and without a label, which is why I suggested you make it a percentage change scale, and see if your charts would look more normal. Your QQQ/TQQQ started near 100. Which, absent a label, I assumed was 100%, not $100.00!

So if you compare trading $50 (The chart you quoted shows TQQQ losing 99.95%, or being 0.05%, which is $50) of TQQQ with a few thousand dollars of QQQ, you'll get a graph like yours from 2003 onward.

Not sure how many people would let their account fall to $50 from $10,000; then continue to trade with only that $50. But if they do, your chart is important to them.

 

[Sig]

The y axis is of the balance, and not of the percentage change, as is the case with commercial charting platforms.

This fact, combined with a very low balance for TQQQ after the fall, and a relatively very high value for QQQ after the fall, is probably likely for the skewed 'looking' results.

The 3x effect is completely overwhelmed by the huge discrepancy in the balances between the two instruments.

Your y-scale was ambiguous and without a label, which is why I suggested you make it a percentage change scale, and see if your charts would look more normal. Your QQQ/TQQQ started near 100. Which, absent a label, I assumed was 100%, not $100.00!

So if you compare trading $50 (The chart you quoted shows TQQQ losing 99.95%, or being 0.05%, which is $50) of TQQQ with a few thousand dollars of QQQ, you'll get a graph like yours from 2003 onward.

Not sure how many people would let their account fall to $50 from $10,000; then continue to trade with only that $50. But if they do, your chart is important to them.

My entire original point was that any security that within my trading lifetime has effectively fallen to zero is the opposite of what the OP is asking for; a "safe" investment that returns "1% per month". @E-MiniToGo disagreed with the fact that a TQQQ index has fallen effectively to zero in the recent past based on no more rigor than his incorrect understanding of percentage daily percentage return funds, and apparently the inability to understand that you could recreate what a 3X daily percentage return fund index on your own. So I recreated it for him to demonstrate that with some rigor, for all the good that did unfortunately. That's all.