S/R

Quote from sulong:

NQ 5m 2/13

Dotted lines are floor pivots, solid lines are prior Hi's/Lo's.

1. The NQ's reaction to early reports seem insignificant to me as was V.

2. Price opened near the pivot,and rose to and poked through the top of the prior days closing range.

3. A pull back to the pivot with lower V, ( which looked to me at the time, a good place to go long)

4.price rose once again, and tagged R1, on rising V.

5. price then fell back to it's pivot, on declining V

6. price then poked through the pivot decisively, on a V spike.

7. price then found temporary support at yesterdays close, on diminished V.

8.price then plunged 10 pts on very heavy V, in the process poking through S1

9.Price continued down on heavy V, until it reached S2., at which point it found some support with less than the V on point 8.

10. price slowly recovers from its down move, and limps back to S1 on significantly lower V. The point at where price touches S1, we see the lowest V sense the open.

11. One more bout of selling appears, with heavy, but some what less V, where price finds its low of the day

12. Price staggers away from the battle field, on low, and slowly expanding V
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I'm with you on all of this. I've studied this quite a lot since Friday morning because I see no clue as to the outcome. Price hit the pivot level, but volume was fine. I saw no divergences (which doesn't mean there weren't any). Taking the trade would mean taking it simply because it hit the pivot level, and that represents a risk that not everyone is willing to take. Nor was there any retest, even on the 1m. It simply reversed and died.

But I want to re-emphasize your point about the effect of big volume on price. It took more than 90 minutes for price to continue downward, and even then it was for only a few more points. The day ended pretty much where volume put it in the morning. You use the word "staggers" appropriately. Price has had the shit kicked out of it, and it does in fact limp thereafter.
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

[B
And why do suppose it found support at "8"?

I don't really know, but my guess is the top of the gap left from 2/2 - 2/5.

I'm referring to the bars you have labelled as "8". 1/29? So that would be before 2/2. [/B]
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I made a typo.
I meant to say 1/2 - 1/5
 
Quote from sulong:

I made a typo.
I meant to say 1/2 - 1/5
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Since that gap as more than filled, I suspect the price consolidation has more to do with the bounce, esp since the bottom of the consolidation was tested on the next leg down, which also coincided with an old trendline from June. The TL itself is probably not important, but perhaps it helps reinforce the price support. Not that many shares were traded during that period, but it did last for three days. All in all, on the weak side.
 
Quote from sulong:

Starting with a daily chart look.
Going back to the Christmas holiday time for my longer term look.

1. coming out of 12/26, NQ made consecutive higher h/l on increasing volume, until we get to 1/13,
2. at which time NQ corrected down on fairly heavy volume, to its 10 ma line.

3. After a day of consolidation with relatively light volume on 1/14,
4.demand came into the market with the highest volume of the year.( on the 15th).

5. NQ made new hi's on th 16th and 20th on noticeably lighter volume.

6. For the next 4 days NQ experienced a back and forth action, with daily ranges expanding its 10ma ave.range, on relative heavy volume.At this point, 1516 seems to be holding as support.

7.On 1/28, broke through short term support of 1515.

8. Demand seems to come into the market on the 29th, with heaver volume, and price closing near it's open.

9. Price consolidates for a few days, before testing the 61 area, also filling the gap left back on 2/2 - 2/5.

10. After testing, and building on our S area for 3 days, we have a rebound, which takes us up to our S now turned to R at 1517, on declining V.
In Wyckoff lingo, this could be a "technical rally"

At this point we are in a trading range between 1518 and 1461, those two area's are important to see what kind of V comes in, and whether or not they hold,
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Sulong,

FYI -- There are 405 minutes in the "regular" emini session and not 390...
 
Quote from Virtuoso:

Sulong,

FYI -- There are 405 minutes in the "regular" emini session and not 390...
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Yes, Thanks.

I just very recently, learned how to control my start/stop data inputs, which are making things a lot easer.

Now I'm trying to decide if I want to encompass the time of "early" reports or not, on daily charts. ( start time 8:30 verse 9:30 est.)

I think I'll just go with "regular" hours, and be done with it.

Thanks for the help.
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

Since that gap as more than filled, I suspect the price consolidation has more to do with the bounce, esp since the bottom of the consolidation was tested on the next leg down, which also coincided with an old trendline from June. The TL itself is probably not important, but perhaps it helps reinforce the price support. Not that many shares were traded during that period, but it did last for three days. All in all, on the weak side.
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I've attached a new and hopefully improved daily chart, to illustrate my point "8". And marked what I call a "gap"

At the time of point 8, I don't see the gap being "more than filled".
 

Attachments

Quote from dbphoenix:

So you're defining "gap" as any open that is above or below the PDC, even though it's still within the PD range?
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Is that not how you define a gap?
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

So you're defining "gap" as any open that is above or below the PDC, even though it's still within the PD range?
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Yes, basically if the price opens out side its PD "closing range'
we have a gap.

Where ever price opens, I measure the open against the PD closing range. That being the latest clue as to the most recent S/R area.

I don't know if this is a correct, or even accepted method, but it's what I came up with, as a, is it? or isn't it? type of gage.
 
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