S/R Emini Journal

[princessa]

Quote from 4re:

If I were retired and trading for a living I would still probably make one trade a day but you have to understand that my one trade a day is with a fairly large position. My thought is that I like to take what I consider to be the most likely trade of the day (cherry picking) and make my money and get out. Limit my exposure. That is how I would daytrade anyway.

Now at the same time I also have an options trade going that I have been building my positions up since July. That will end up as my big money making trade.

are your options also with the s&p? or with a stock?

 

[BoyBrutus]

Quote from sportmatt37:

It looks like an intraday top is forming. I would be wary of any longs before the fed meeting

I would be wary of any longs before the fed meeting

Any reason for this?? Today looks similar to 062906. Gap up similar action. Just saying anything is possible.

 

[tradequicker]

last sentence is always correct ......24/7.....anything is possible.....so trade the signals if you have confidence in them.....fomc can only cost u what every other loss does........we all incur losses......fomc is no bigger loss than any other if the system employs proven stops and u r at least 50% position to be on correct side.......regardless of action......

 

[Spooz Top]

Quote from tradequicker:

.....fomc can only cost u what every other loss does...

not really.........could cost you much more.........a fast market can & will trade thru your stop like a hot knife thru soft butter.......has happened to me in the past.

 

[DonKee]

Quote from tradequicker:

last sentence is always correct ......24/7.....anything is possible.....so trade the signals if you have confidence in them.....fomc can only cost u what every other loss does........we all incur losses......fomc is no bigger loss than any other if the system employs proven stops and u r at least 50% position to be on correct side.......regardless of action......

I'd be careful with that thinking.

I was short a bunch of e mini's back around 1997 or 1998 (can't remember exact date), the fed cut interest rates during market hours and the next tick was over 50 points higher.

THAT'S 50 as in FIFTY, not .50.

Of course, this probably won't happen today, but you should NEVER think your maximum loss is your stop.

That was a real eye opener. Anyone else remember that day??????

 

[tradequicker]

anomaly thinking.......rarely happens......get past that and it won't be as scary.......even as you maintain extremely low risk.....always low risk.........fomc is no big deal unless you allow it to be......yes it is a huge blowup sometimes, so the wise thing to do is wait for it to go up and for a little then it goes back to normal .......or trade right thru it right o r wrong.....my brokerage is very high quality......don't ask.....

 

[DonKee]

Quote from DonKee:

I'd be careful with that thinking.

I was short a bunch of e mini's back around 1997 or 1998 (can't remember exact date), the fed cut interest rates during market hours and the next tick was over 50 points higher.

THAT'S 50 as in FIFTY, not .50.

Of course, this probably won't happen today, but you should NEVER think your maximum loss is your stop.

That was a real eye opener. Anyone else remember that day??????

I found it, October 15, 1998. Here's a blurb from a news story.

"The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, has surprised the financial markets with another interest rate cut.
In little more than a fortnight it has cut its rates twice, this time by another 0.25% to 5%

Shares shot up afterwards with the Dow Jones jumping by more than 4%, or nearly 330 points."

 

[4re]

Quote from Chart_and_Soul:

Question for Gary-

If a long is triggered and goes up 1 point before pulling back enough to stop out the trade, would the next long entry now be the high of the day (one or two ticks beyond that) or still the original number?

Thanks,
C&S

That depends on the channel. If we have 4 points between my long entry and the nexr resistance then I will wait for a break of the HOD. If we only have a couple I will take my same trade again and be very cautious at the top.

 

[sportmatt37]

Quote from BoyBrutus:

I would be wary of any longs before the fed meeting

Any reason for this?? Today looks similar to 062906. Gap up similar action. Just saying anything is possible.

Yes I agree that anything is possible, but it does appear to me today that good news is partially priced in already. Therefore, I would not like to be long as the fed anounces because - to me - upside potential is limited, especially when comepared to downside risk.

As always, I could very well be wrong. Thats why I'll probably just stay on the sidelines and maybe take a few equity trades

 

[4re]

The quiet before th storm. You guys be carefull if you are trading this afternoon