S/R Emini Journal

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Quote from volente_00:

So you think the SR levels on futures do not change as premium erodes ?
Futures may lead but cash is king.

Do they change...sure but not fast enough for the s/r levels we are looking at from yesterday or the day before to be adversely affected. Your can only consider so many data points in making each trading decision and I don't think taking the erosion of premium over time into account is worth consideration. You would be better off examining price action near your projected s/r levels more closely.
 
Quote from 4re:

Princessa,
Remember I am not using a mathmatical formula to figure I.E. Pivots or fibs, to figure these. Here is why I don't use those two named formulas for S/R. What would happen if I was trading pivots and the majority of traders that day were using fibs or vice versa, I would be hosed.

Hi Gary,

Nothing wrong coming into the day with predetermined support and resistance levels and THEN wait for the market action to confirm them.

You are right in saying that using predetermined support and resistance in an arbitrary fashion without reference to the current market action is incorrect.

However, even though you may use the same number as other traders it doesn't necessarily follow you are using it in the same way if it is only part of your method.

I have seen some guys using the same numbers as other traders and yet one trader is taking a short off that number and another trader is taking a long off the same number.

Something to think about.
 
Quote from belavia:

Thanks for the detailed reply. For #4 which triangle are you talking about. Between the yellow and green lines? (I thought triangles had to have a horizontal line at 180%.)

I have said:

"4. ES did not quite breakout of the triangle that we have been seeing previously (Volente pointed it out I believe);"

bullish triangle. remember?
 
Quote from romik:

Possible reversal now after bullish hammer on S&P and DJ30 stops below the low of hammer.

Long 1302.50 stop 1299 PT depends smaller size position due to speculative nature of this trade

EDIT: Also a BLD in RSI

stopped @ 1299.00, it was a lower odds based trade, therefore small position kept earlier gains on 2 trades still in profit.

EDIT: 60 min chart is looking more on a bounce side now and price being @ lower of the channel is also a positive sign, but who knows what's the intentions of the majors for today? I don't know that. I don't know whether I had a misprint here, T&S registered 191,565 lots sold @ 16:20 and 192,035 bought @ 16:25 yesterday :confused:
 
Quote from volente_00:

Picture yourself being a young black male who went from nothing to a net worth of 320 million. Put yourself in his shoes if you truly want to understand the message.

sorta like "poor little rich girl", but in reverse? c'mon vo, that doesn't fly. people should be thankful for their blessings, instead of always focusing on the negatives.

there will always be problems, strife, and hardships in life, but if you chose to focus on them, it just makes you miserable.

i'm not unsympathetic, but i would say be thankful that you have such an abundance and choose wisely your mate. it's usually not that hard to tell when someone is playing you if you divorce yourself from emotion.

poor people - black, white, or whatever - always think money will solve their problems and nothing could be further from the truth. it's like biggie says, more money, more problems....
 
Quote from YMZ:

I would disagree...although I may be wrong. Futures are futures...cash market is cash market. I think that trading off just the s/r levels for the current contract works just fine. If you are attempting index arb (which none of us would be anyways) the premium levels would be of concern to us. Otherwise the only reason I can see that anyone trading s/r numbers would be interested in the premium is to see if there may be a buy or sell program triggered at or near the price where you are expecting breakout...it could give an indication as to whether we would get some follow through in the right direction.

or if you're holding for longer than a day or two....
 
Quote from LondonUSTrader:

Hi Gary,

However, even though you may use the same number as other traders it doesn't necessarily follow you are using it in the same way if it is only part of your method.

I have seen some guys using the same numbers as other traders and yet one trader is taking a short off that number and another trader is taking a long off the same number.

Something to think about.

It isn't ONLY part of my method. If you go back through all these pages I would imagine that of all the trades I have taken probably 85% were the numbers I posted. I have won and lost by those numbers just as others have. So I would say this is my method.

Yes, others are seeing the same numbers I am but taking the opposite side. That is what makes a market. One of us will be in pain after the trade and one will eat steak. I try to make it where I will have momentum on my side but nothing is foolproof. If you read the document I posted last night it will explain it in a lot better detail.
 
Here are my numbers for today. If you look at my chart there are several levels of support that I want to clear before taking a short position because each one of these only provides about 1 point and I don't want to get caught in that mess. So the safe play is to wait.

Long 1307.75 - 1310.75

Short 1291.25 - 1287.50

Good trading today,

Gary
 

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Has anybody been looking at the December futures. I am seeing more volume on it. When I get back from taking my son to school I will take a look at it and see where I will trade.
 
Quote from 4re:

Has anybody been looking at the December futures. I am seeing more volume on it. When I get back from taking my son to school I will take a look at it and see where I will trade.


Yeah, it is ROLL day dammit (it will start rolling this morning and the volume will move). No wonder Valente was asking about DEC. I forgot.
 
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