S/R Emini Journal

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Quote from romik:

Here are my thoughts on chart analyses. While reviewing EOD charts is a must for anybody who is serious enough to consider doing this for a living or even as a supplementary income (not loss basically) it is just as important to study charts real-time and applying your previously gained knowledge on real-time charts. Do not get trapped by hindsight analyses, as in hindsight one may very easily not see POTENTIAL price oscillations, as it is already there on the plate for us to see. Doing that all the time will not train your mind to be ready to react in due time, reaction lag does happen a lot to the majority (I assume here) novice traders. Nihabaashi (ET member) has posted a lot of quality stuff on both of these subjects. He recommends using programs that record daily price oscillations (charts) and later reviewing them that way, rather than simply looking at the EOD charts, which is easy stuff. I think he mentioned Camstasia, though some charting programs offer this function built-in or as an add-on.
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I would say real time is much more important than studying the daily chart.

I also think that is why paper trading any technique is so important before "graduating" to real money. It is important you can see the setups in realtime as they evolve.

One reason daytrading is so much more difficult than longer term trading is time pressure. Usually within a few minutes of seeing a setup you have to come to a firm decision, yes or no, and if yes pull the trigger. Then you have to manage the trade consistently even when it may go against you while watching it all unfold realtime. If it is going against you, you may be tempted to close prematurely to stop the perceived pain. Yet, if it goes for you, you may be tempted to close prematurely to ensure you have a profit no matter how small. Boy, is it tough.

One chart package that has the playback facility built in is Ensign Windows which can be used very efficiently with an IB data feed.

It is my experience, and belief, that doing premarket analysis on stuff like the daily chart is not as important as you would think. Far more important to see the reality of the market unfolding before your eyes and always be ready to go long or short regardless of any preconceived biases you may start the day with.

Cheers.
 
Quote from romik:

Here are my thoughts on chart analyses. While reviewing EOD charts is a must for anybody who is serious enough to consider doing this for a living or even as a supplementary income (not loss basically) it is just as important to study charts real-time and applying your previously gained knowledge on real-time charts. Do not get trapped by hindsight analyses, as in hindsight one may very easily not see POTENTIAL price oscillations, as it is already there on the plate for us to see. Doing that all the time will not train your mind to be ready to react in due time, reaction lag does happen a lot to the majority (I assume here) novice traders. Nihabaashi (ET member) has posted a lot of quality stuff on both of these subjects. He recommends using programs that record daily price oscillations (charts) and later reviewing them that way, rather than simply looking at the EOD charts, which is easy stuff. I think he mentioned Camstasia, though some charting programs offer this function built-in or as an add-on.
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Totally agree here. If I were a novice trader reading this thread here is how I think I would try to learn and trade right now. I would really study the S/R stuff and try to chart it on every stock, emini basically I would draw S/R on every chart I saw. And start watching how price reacts around those levels. Get real good at this only in the beginning. Then I would start getting used to patterns. Learn how they breakout and everything about them. I would trade them until I got used to finding them in real time. You will get to the point where you can basically draw right where they are going to be before they get past 2 candles. Then I would start trading them. You can start learning the patterns first and trading them but you really need to master one thing at a time. JMO...
 
Quote from belavia:

Gary or Romik, I know it was a tough day, but if you have some free time today or tomorrow can you please tell me what you think of the chart.
I had a pennant at the beginning and what I would call two channels. In all three cases the breaking of the line would have been a profitable trade for me. Of course, I dont trade with real money yet, but what do you think.:)
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As Gary has beaten me to the answer to your question, I'll submit my "hindsight" analyses for yesterday, I did not trade that. I went for a weak WRB (wouldn't even call it a WRB, though considering yesterday's range it was enormous bar :)). So that just proves a point that none of us are perfect here and mistakes, errors of judgement, have been and will be made, that's what we have tight stops for. Mind you I was simply punished by locals keeping ES on a tight leash all day yesterday, I'll post a range chart next, it looks like a fence to me, pretty rare occurrence IMO.

***This is for novice traders' attention***

Being patient in daytrdaing is very important. Don't forget, we are sitting at our desks and don't have the luxury of a trader sitting his ass at the exchange.

On the attached chart one will see 2 lines defining the upper and lower ranges for ES from 8.30am-11.30am EST. I think yesterday around 11.25 or so I asked Belavia, which way will the price pop any time soon and she replied - UP. How did she know that? Did she assume that? Would that have been the same as for me to assume now that Belavia is a female, based on my perception of her nick?

I could not trade that pop as I was stuck in 2 groups of trades and I had to stick them out, otherwise why make the rules in the 1st place?

But it sure did look a cute set-up. That being near the 11-12 slot, which is ideal for making an entry, as the morning trading range has been established, especially if it has been tightened, price should start breaking out of the limited range to EITHER upside or downside. And that's what pretty much happened.

Belavia wasn't right and I wasn't right about the direction of price. Difference being is that she would have lost money on the trade and I could have had a chance to take the short trade, as previous day's high was being a pain in the ass for the longs and the previous triangle (yellow) was already broken to the downside.
 

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Quote from 4re:

No I only plot the YM when asked. Rarely even look at it or the NQ. I will try to do that a little here and there just to see what happens. Thanks,

Gary
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Thanks Gary.

I just happened to notice yesterday that the YM wasn't breaking S/R at the same time the ES was breaking your S/R level.

In playing the 15 ORB, I always like to see both make the same breakout as confirmation.

Just throwing it out there.

MDT
 
have a look at yesterday's range in this 4 point range bar chart. That was a killer for my system yesterday and not just for mine I am sure. IMHO locals knowing that there is no serious equity activity have tossed and rolled ES within a very very very tight range. Bastards, what else can I say.
 

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Gary,

Sorry for not answering your question until this morning but I went to bed right after I posted that pennant last night. I did take it although I did it on very small size since I'm still learning to trade them. It seems like there's quite a few stock setups like this on the more volatile ones. This trade was on a stock that has a nice $5 range everyday so a move out of a pennant like that can be very nice.

I also wanted to say that I always have up the charts for the ER, YM, ES and NQ even though I'm only trading YM right now. I have them up because it seems like oftentimes the NQ or ER will lead a breakout for the ES or YM.
 
Quote from ndjeff7:

Gary,

Sorry for not answering your question until this morning but I went to bed right after I posted that pennant last night. I did take it although I did it on very small size since I'm still learning to trade them. It seems like there's quite a few stock setups like this on the more volatile ones. This trade was on a stock that has a nice $5 range everyday so a move out of a pennant like that can be very nice.

I also wanted to say that I always have up the charts for the ER, YM, ES and NQ even though I'm only trading YM right now. I have them up because it seems like oftentimes the NQ or ER will lead a breakout for the ES or YM.
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That is cool. I wish more new traders would cut their teeth on stocks instead of jumping right in to the shark tank. I actually have about 50 stocks on my watchlist and I go through them more than once w week just for charting purposes.
 
I agree, I think it definitely helped to learn to trade first by trading stocks. Let's see if this YM get's above the big resistance at 11418 today.
 
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