S/R Emini Journal

[4re]

Quote from ndjeff7:

4re,

Thanks for outlining your exit methods so clearly for me. I'll look them over later on this weekend when I get some more time but I think I can incorporate them well into my trading plan. I'm trading similar to your style where I'm coming up with short and longer-term support/resistance areas. I'm monitoring the price action around those areas and taking the trade in the direction with the highest probability.

One of the big things I've learned from this journal that I never thought of before was to take into account what kind of action is happening at what time of day. By this I mean the 1030 reversal possibility and also observing what the low volume, lunch time crowd is doing and possibly looking to fade their moves after lunch if all the signals line up correctly.

I'm stuck inside today doing lots of chores around the house but when I get a chance I'll look over those rules more in depth. Thanks!

I do pay attention to the time things but I do take my trade as soon as it comes wihtout regard to time of day. 10:30 reversal does not keep me out of a trade and neither will lunchtime. Because what if my numbers come up at 10:32 market moves 3 points and then reverses. This has happened several times in fact. Luchtime I pay attention only if I am going to need to leave and market starts getting slow. But if the market is breaking through a true S/R level time of day won't matter and you will know it.

Remmember, we want to trade very methodical just like a casino. A casino has a very small % edge over the gambler in blackjack. But a casino has very rigid rules that every dealer has to maintain. By using that small edge and consistancy a casino can weather the storm of several lucky gamblers and make big profits. They are open 24 hrs a day and take on all betors. So trade methodical like a casino for profits. I believe we have a better % edge than a casino does therefore you should be showing good profits.

 

[ndjeff7]

Make a lot of sense. I don't think I phrased myself correctly earlier though. I don't think the time of day would keep me out of a trade but it has shown me some high quality trades that I hadn't seen before.

For example on Thursday when we had a pretty decent sell-off in the mid-morning and then during lunch time it was slowing retracing the downmove on pretty low volume. I would never have thought to look for a break back down after lunch as long as everything lined up with my methods. I guess I just meant to say that some of the little nuances help give even more confidence in my methods.

I agree totally with the casino reference though. Everyone just has to find their tiny edge and exploit it at every chance they get. If the probabilities are in your favor and we manage our risk correctly then we should come out ahead in the long term.

 

[porgie]

4re raining again hard here ......ran me off the mower....on a more serious note for traders maybe, i really can say ur last post is soo goood........once u get to the "forget the times" level u r moving in the right direction..watch out at noon no trading allowed....watch out at 2....waat ch for trn at 10:30........even 9....my system doesn't recognize times only signals........i had that drilled into my head when i started with rules backed up by much expense on someone else's pocket but still stuck with me........i had to move past that ..........opening bell for daytrading emini's is goldmine for a few.....even earlier or all night if bars are big enough...that is th e key....bar size means movement means opportunity..........09 oclock cst is a huge high^ ^% turn time range and has been for well over 5 years .......with a 2 yrs beacktest saying that prior to th e over 5 yrs ago tested since.......but when the system says what u wait for trust it.......when the system says enter enter.......when it says no don't ....when it says ma ybe either gamble ot or sit on entry hand....i don't gamble...too many good clear signals every day.......after 9 oclock.........es is no different than ym nq wit h my system even the daily signals look the same and as accurate.......don't develop a system and then doubt it when all criteria is there even if it is a simple line crossing another or price crossing a line or whatever, or of course, hitting support/resistance or whatever we trade...... i will go elsewhere and aggravate the mean ones........they don't reside here, only the good ones........porgie

 

[porgie]

last one.........no one and i mean no one knows what the next bar brings......mind bias and anticipation is one of the very oldest traps for traders........u said it .......probability.......edge.....regarding marekt changeing direction........u will know it for sure when u c it........or you might have system good enough that rarely fails ........that is rare....failure must be there for risk reward to be factor.....risk reward on rare failure system is not an issue....neither are initial stops....trailing stops is another trap......scaling out is smarter......brekeven is win.............said this only for goal setting and encouragement only....it can be done......it might take a long time to find it............something to shoot for.....

 

[4re]

Quote from ndjeff7:

Make a lot of sense. I don't think I phrased myself correctly earlier though. I don't think the time of day would keep me out of a trade but it has shown me some high quality trades that I hadn't seen before.

For example on Thursday when we had a pretty decent sell-off in the mid-morning and then during lunch time it was slowing retracing the downmove on pretty low volume. I would never have thought to look for a break back down after lunch as long as everything lined up with my methods. I guess I just meant to say that some of the little nuances help give even more confidence in my methods.

I agree totally with the casino reference though. Everyone just has to find their tiny edge and exploit it at every chance they get. If the probabilities are in your favor and we manage our risk correctly then we should come out ahead in the long term.

I knew what you were saying I just wanted you for one month to take every trade that fits your criteria and use some sort of conservative exit strategy like I mentioned. When you force yourself to do it and then see the outcome your confidence should be very high. I only want the best for you and I know that is what you want also.

Gary

 

[4re]

Quote from porgie:

4re raining again hard here ......ran me off the mower....on a more serious note for traders maybe, i really can say ur last post is soo goood........once u get to the "forget the times" level u r moving in the right direction..watch out at noon no trading allowed....watch out at 2....waat ch for trn at 10:30........even 9....my system doesn't recognize times only signals........i had that drilled into my head when i started with rules backed up by much expense on someone else's pocket but still stuck with me........i had to move past that ..........opening bell for daytrading emini's is goldmine for a few.....even earlier or all night if bars are big enough...that is th e key....bar size means movement means opportunity..........09 oclock cst is a huge high^ ^% turn time range and has been for well over 5 years .......with a 2 yrs beacktest saying that prior to th e over 5 yrs ago tested since.......but when the system says what u wait for trust it.......when the system says enter enter.......when it says no don't ....when it says ma ybe either gamble ot or sit on entry hand....i don't gamble...too many good clear signals every day.......after 9 oclock.........es is no different than ym nq wit h my system even the daily signals look the same and as accurate.......don't develop a system and then doubt it when all criteria is there even if it is a simple line crossing another or price crossing a line or whatever, or of course, hitting support/resistance or whatever we trade...... i will go elsewhere and aggravate the mean ones........they don't reside here, only the good ones........porgie

We are expecting rain this week. Normally I would ignore that because it keeps missing us but we are supposed to be finishing our swimming pool this week and hoping to throw a Labor Day party next weekend so it will probably rain. That is happens when you throw luck into the equation.

George,you know my casino theory came straight from your favorite book Trading In The Zone. But I really like it. But straight from my experience in sales here is another theory you and others will probably agree with...Sales is a numbers game, we all know that. I knew that the way my numbers went was that for every 10 Dr offices I visited I would get 3 callbacks and 1 sale. So what I started doing was everytime I got turned down I thanked the office for getting me one step closer to my next sale. How does this relate to trading? Trading is also a numbers game. My win/loss is better than 50%. So in theory every loss should be followed by a win. Every string of losses should be a small string but it should signal a string of wins coming soon. Since I make more on a win than I lose in most of my losses it should signal PROFIT. If after one month it doesn't add up to profit you need to re figure your strategy for entries. So, after cussing and throwing a fit when I lose I need to be thankful for getting me one step closer to a win. I hope this helps someone.

Gary

 

[ndjeff7]

Thanks Gary, now I feel that I'm on the same page as you. Tomorrow I'll look over my plan and incorporate your exit parameters into it. I'll try to keep posting my trades in this journal along with everyone else if that's okay with everyone.

Like I had said earlier, I've been working on a futures trading strategy for quite a while and have finally come to the point where I've tweaked the system enough where I have confidence getting into trades. The next step now is to start taking consistent profits out of those trades. I really like your exit strategy concepts so I'm looking forward to incorporating those on Monday and seeing where it takes me! I've been trading stocks full-time for 3 1/2 years and so far futures trading is definitely a whole different ballgame.

 

[4re]

Quote from ndjeff7:

Thanks Gary, now I feel that I'm on the same page as you. Tomorrow I'll look over my plan and incorporate your exit parameters into it. I'll try to keep posting my trades in this journal along with everyone else if that's okay with everyone.

Like I had said earlier, I've been working on a futures trading strategy for quite a while and have finally come to the point where I've tweaked the system enough where I have confidence getting into trades. The next step now is to start taking consistent profits out of those trades. I really like your exit strategy concepts so I'm looking forward to incorporating those on Monday and seeing where it takes me! I've been trading stocks full-time for 3 1/2 years and so far futures trading is definitely a whole different ballgame.

Trading futures was different for me as well. I had traded stocks and options before moving to futures. It mostly took a little getting use to and learning the movements of the ES. With some patience you will get everything out of it you want. If you want me to look at your entry method you can either post it or PM me. If not that is cool also. I look forward to seeing your post and hope you do well.

 

[billp]

Great journal and good posts although I have only read bits here and there. Keep it up.

My only wish.
Why oh why can't this journal be about stocks. Hey! if anyone wants to do something similar for stocks, you have 1 attentive audience here

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from billp:

Great journal and good posts although I have only read bits here and there. Keep it up.

My only wish.
Why oh why can't this journal be about stocks. Hey! if anyone wants to do something similar for stocks, you have 1 attentive audience here

no problem, many stocks move in sync with the futures, all you need to do is trade 'em just like you trade the futures.