S/R Emini Journal
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Quote from JohnBob:
Here I am to the rescue!!
For 2004 and 2005, the average daily range for ES during RTH was about 11. If today's current range does not change, the average for 2006 is 12.3
JB
Thank you, Sir. What are your thoughts? Would you have played breakouts out of 1 min (1.50 range) bar at open if ES has not moved away from previous day's close too far? The logic is flawless IMO, average daily range 12.3/2=6.15 probability of daily volatility up/down (trend day would have been even better). Would ES stay within 1.5 point range? Don't think so.
I wish we could tilt the earth just enough so that all that rain would flow our direction. We have been so dry it isn't funny. This summer I had to go to Las Vegas to find rain (really). Other than that all is going well though. You take care, George
Gary
P.S. Thank you for the nice words on that "Nobody can make money in this market" thread. I appreciate it.
NdJeff7,
Ok here is how I plan my exits. Now this is a plan that you can use faithfully if you just do it like a robot. Mine is based on the ES but you can multiply any of the numbers by 10 and trade it on the YM.
OK here is how I exit my trades win or lose.
1. Shoot for 2 points, if momentum is really strong go ahead and stay in until the first sign of slow down and get out.
2. If price goes 1.5 points and starts reversing take 1 point and get out with profit.
3. If price goes my direction 1 point then all the loss I will take is 1 point (Kind of a modified trailing stop)
4. anything less than 1 point move in your direction go with a 2 point stoploss
Numbers 2,3 and 4 are with the idea that I can always re enter at a later time if the signal comes up again.
This point strategy is with the focus of not letting a winning trade turn into a losing trade first and foremost.
It is very conservative but even without being an experienced trader you can use this method. I am not as faithful with it because now if I see the hint of a pullback during a trade the first thing I start looking for is either a flag or pennant formation. If I don't see that forming on a 5 minute chart I get out. For you I would like to see you stick to this method. Don't look for any chart pattern just stick to it. As you get better at chart patterns then you can incorporate patterns into your exit strategy. Right now survival and making some money is all you need to focus on. You will find that your account will keep going up if you put yourself in the right trades.
Now that I have said that. What method are you using for your trade set ups. Because if you are not using a proven method for trading then exit strategy is the least of your worries. You should not be trying to re invent the wheel here just use a simple basic PROVEN method.
Make yourself try this for one month and then evaluate your account.
I hope this helps.
Gary
Ok here is how I plan my exits. Now this is a plan that you can use faithfully if you just do it like a robot. Mine is based on the ES but you can multiply any of the numbers by 10 and trade it on the YM.
OK here is how I exit my trades win or lose.
1. Shoot for 2 points, if momentum is really strong go ahead and stay in until the first sign of slow down and get out.
2. If price goes 1.5 points and starts reversing take 1 point and get out with profit.
3. If price goes my direction 1 point then all the loss I will take is 1 point (Kind of a modified trailing stop)
4. anything less than 1 point move in your direction go with a 2 point stoploss
Numbers 2,3 and 4 are with the idea that I can always re enter at a later time if the signal comes up again.
This point strategy is with the focus of not letting a winning trade turn into a losing trade first and foremost.
It is very conservative but even without being an experienced trader you can use this method. I am not as faithful with it because now if I see the hint of a pullback during a trade the first thing I start looking for is either a flag or pennant formation. If I don't see that forming on a 5 minute chart I get out. For you I would like to see you stick to this method. Don't look for any chart pattern just stick to it. As you get better at chart patterns then you can incorporate patterns into your exit strategy. Right now survival and making some money is all you need to focus on. You will find that your account will keep going up if you put yourself in the right trades.
Now that I have said that. What method are you using for your trade set ups. Because if you are not using a proven method for trading then exit strategy is the least of your worries. You should not be trying to re invent the wheel here just use a simple basic PROVEN method.
Make yourself try this for one month and then evaluate your account.
I hope this helps.
Gary
That is an excellent system for intraday profit taking. I am going to try to apply that next week, since my 1300 positonal isnt doing squat. Time for some intraday trades. I have been stuck lately since there has been no net movement in the S&P. Maybe inflation data next week may spur some movement, market has a vacation feel to it, as the average true range has contracted a lot this week.
Thank you Sosa,
I hope you like it. I know the market has gone nowhere this week. I have been noticed that lately our markets have had about 2 weeks a month where they do nothing and 2 weeks of good movement. The bad thing is that you never know what week it is going to move. There isn't a pattern for it. Just kills my option plays. Just like it is your long term plays as well. Are you short or long at 1300?
Let me know how you do with this plan and never be ashamed of taking 1 point if need be.
Gary
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