S/R Emini Journal

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This is a 4 point range chart, note that last candle stayed not reaching a 4 point swing since 11am! Therefore, to me, when it does complete, would indicate the direction of the trade.
 

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remember this........when market is hot move.........all charts pretty.......today is goo d ym test for system.........yes virginia there is a santa claus
 
Quote from romik:

try this brain teezer

EDIT: This 1 min TF would qualify as an excellent S/R when market opens @ +0.00 change, it has to go somewhere, right? What is an average daily swing in ES? JohnBob where are you and your stats?
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So you only trade on 15 minute candlesticks?

The one that you circled, had it not be a 1 minute, you would have gone short but been stopped out?
 
Quote from romik:

This is a 4 point range chart, note that last candle stayed not reaching a 4 point swing since 11am! Therefore, to me, when it does complete, would indicate the direction of the trade.
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Can you explain this a little bit please. I have trouble understanding what you mean.
 
Quote from belavia:

So you only trade on 15 minute candlesticks?

The one that you circled, had it not be a 1 minute, you would have gone short but been stopped out?
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I think you misunderstood the general idea.

But, if I went short of the low of that bar, if my R:R would have been 1:1 and the bar is 1.50 point in range I would say 0.75 would have been my PT and stop (PT could vary as this was an opening 1 min bar and market was @ pretty much @ yesterday's close. I would have gone short aiming for 0.75 gain and would have been stopped out at 2nd wave and re-entered doubling up at the High level. End result: 2 trades, 1 loser -.75, 1 winner +.75. A winner writes off the loss AND keeps you NET positive.
 
Quote from romik:

What is an average daily swing in ES? JohnBob where are you and your stats?
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Here I am to the rescue!! :)

For 2004 and 2005, the average daily range for ES during RTH was about 11. If today's current range does not change, the average for 2006 is 12.3

JB
 
Quote from romik:

Hi Belavia,

What you need to ask yourself is this. Do I have a system that can generate at least 1 point a day on average over and over and over, because that is all that you would require, just 1 NET point per day. Stop thinking small, that is the key here as well as having the ability to gain that 1 net point. At the moment what is your capital? That is another question. Say, it is $5,000.00, which is about average for most starting out in futures. That would mean that you can trade up-to 10 contracts ES, but that is too much risk IMO, unless you DO have that 1 net point system. BTW, 1 NET point system is not achievable through taking lots of trades, the commission will eat up your net point. so the bottom line is identifying a strong move and taking ONLY strong possibility trades, none of the 'I hope it will and not having enough justification for an entry, blah blah blah'...

Anyway, getting back to position size. 10 lots would be risky as a novice trader you WILL make mistakes and you WILL lose. The point of losing is to train your mind to never start believing that you were right making an entry at a certain level and then when price reverses on you, you still believe it's going to go your way and you end up holding on to a loser. And when that loser is 5 points down (assume your predetermined stop was 2 points), then you are down $2,500.00 or 50% of your trading capital! You don't want that so ,=my advice would be to start with 1 lot=small cash gains ("supplementary income"), but if you do end up holding on to a loser for even 8-9 points and getting a margin call and get it closed, in that case you would be down $450.00 or 9% of your capital, which is NOT good, but not as bad as 50% in a 10 lot scenario.

So I hope you understand, that whether you will make a living or simply get supplementary income from trading ES (one of the most liquid instruments) depends on your capitalisation. I am not referring to the insides of the actual success, just to lack of range at certain times.

Don't forget, if you can show investors that you can generate 240 net points per year, you will have many people that would want to give you their money.

All you need now is to develop a system, that would either identify large moves when they do happen and you would get 5 points or a system that would provide you with 1 point per day on average, mine is the latter.

All the best!
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Greetings,

That is a great post,and gives great encouragement to me in my learning.

I was wondering if you ever mix up your indexes?I have been watching several,YM ,ES,QM,QG.

I look for one with a tradable chart,as of late I hit the QM.

My targets are .10 QM, .02 QG,1 ES,and 10 YM,all with the same value,but different set ups that dont always match.

I thought it might be wise to not limit to just one market,and use the one thats moving?Your thoughts appreciated.

cordially Tom
 
Quote from belavia:

Can you explain this a little bit please. I have trouble understanding what you mean.
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Hi Belavia,

I am going to be brief, Friday night :)

On the attached chart you will see that the candle before last has completed its 4 point range (11am-3.21pm!) to the upside above the upper 2 day resistance line (white line), so that would indicate a POSSIBLE long.

But, have a look at the upper 5 day resistance line. How close is that candle's closing price to that upper line - under 1 point. How safe would be to go long, near the close, so close to the 5 days upper channel line? That's why I suggested long @ 1302.00 earlier today.

Also notice that since last Friday, price has been unable to break that upper resistance line.

I earlier suggested going short @ 1294.00, can you see what was my reasoning there?
 

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