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S/R Emini Journal
- Thread starter 4re
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We've had a double bottom on the daily; June 14 and July 18. We've got symmetry to the left and to the right of those bottoms. I see a bull flag with the price projection coming in at 1337.
The highest probability play at this point appears to be long. But as Mark Douglas has taught me, anything can happen.
Rick
The highest probability play at this point appears to be long. But as Mark Douglas has taught me, anything can happen.
Rick
Quote from Thom64:
Greetings Gary,
It looks to me that the move above 300 should be cautioned as a bull trap-toppy pattern,with your valid flag also in play,a nice move either way seems worth waiting for.Nice placement for you S/R,as it shoud reward well.
cordially Tom
That is why I will not take it unless we break the top of the flag pole by .50 at 1308. 25..Then we will where it goes from there.
Quote from belavia:
4re, on your chart for the week there is a support line around 1287 stemming from the bottom of a long bullish candlestick. How did you determine this support, is it simply because that was the biggest candlestick to draw from?
Thanks
Belavia,
There are actually 2 candles together there that are 60 minute candles with very noticeable needles. That means that something made traders change the direction at that same place and should remember it the next time price reaches that point again. Maybe it will pop through that level next time without even pausing but I gaurantee that traders will be watching it. So if it breaks next time that would be a good short entry.
Gary
Quote from riaamaan:
We've had a double bottom on the daily; June 14 and July 18. We've got symmetry to the left and to the right of those bottoms. I see a bull flag with the price projection coming in at 1337.
The highest probability play at this point appears to be long. But as Mark Douglas has taught me, anything can happen.
Rick
Greetings,
I hear alot of good reviews of his books,Ive got "The disciplined trader"on reserve at my local library,its currrently on a 2 week wait.
I don't know if he talks about this subject at all,but Ive heard the analogy to insanity."trying to predict the unpredictable".The ability to take what is available,and not impose your bias to your trades seems the key to making it.I personally know 2 people who have allowed 3 and 4 baggers in stocks return to losing trades.
As a side question,do any of you also hold stocks in your portfolio?Aside from some ETF's and fixed income,I'm having a hard time seeing the benefit of owning stocks?
cordially Tom
Quote from ndjeff7:
4re,
Yeah, that market profile chart definitely looks like a crazy spelling bee at first. With the gap up today if you were looking to fade the opening gap you know that there was strong resistance in the YM at 11360 from the longer term profile.
Since we've been in this chop for the whole month practically that market profile chart shows that price has been attracted to the 11360 area more than anywhere else, so if price moves up there it should slow, in theory at least.
I've mainly been using the profile to get my S/R and from reading your thread I've started noticing flag patterns, etc and have been trading those off the levels. Before your thread I was stuck counter-trading the trend all the time!
How has your new trading been working for you. I know traders make good livings fading the trends but for me it is more relaxing to go with the flow. The man that helped me get started asked me this question and when I answered it I knew that I wanted to be with the trend.
Question: If you are going 60 miles per hour down the highway (Romik, insert killometers here) and you want to go 120 miles per hour. Is it easier to step on the gas and speed up or come to a complete stop then turn around and accelerate to 120 miles per hour. It just takes more energy to do the later so I'll go where the energy already is. Straight ahead...
Hope you like the flag pattern also. I really watch out for flags and pennants. But the key is to watch the volume and make sure it breaks out of the pattern before entering.
Take care and enjoy,
Gary
P.S. Thank you for the nice words and welcome to our journal.
Quote from riaamaan:
We've had a double bottom on the daily; June 14 and July 18. We've got symmetry to the left and to the right of those bottoms. I see a bull flag with the price projection coming in at 1337.
The highest probability play at this point appears to be long. But as Mark Douglas has taught me, anything can happen.
Rick
Rick,
You and Mark are correct. That is why we wait and wait and wait some more this week. But get ready to jump on it if we are correct. If we are wrong doesn't matter because we won't be in it.
Take Care
Gary
Quote from Thom64:
Greetings,
I hear alot of good reviews of his books,Ive got "The disciplined trader"on reserve at my local library,its currrently on a 2 week wait.
I don't know if he talks about this subject at all,but Ive heard the analogy to insanity."trying to predict the unpredictable".The ability to take what is available,and not impose your bias to your trades seems the key to making it.I personally know 2 people who have allowed 3 and 4 baggers in stocks return to losing trades.
As a side question,do any of you also hold stocks in your portfolio?Aside from some ETF's and fixed income,I'm having a hard time seeing the benefit of owning stocks?
cordially Tom
If I have a 3 or 4 bagger I will promise you I will not lose that trade. I get out while the getting is good and if it turns into a 10 bagger I don't care. I'll be out buying my steak and won't see it happen. Nobody can fault you for taking a profit when so few people profit in this game anyway. If someone does criticize you then they probably got lucky a few times but they usually take big hits sooner or later. I dont take big winners or losers and my winning average is probably around 65% for 2 full points and more for my winning trades because I will accept less when necessary. But I always let the individual trader manage his own trade his way. I can only guide people I can't trade it for them.
Gary
Also I don't own stocks but Dan Zanger has proven that it can pay off to trade stocks.
Quote from 4re:
If I have a 3 or 4 bagger I will promise you I will not lose that trade. I get out while the getting is good and if it turns into a 10 bagger I don't care. I'll be out buying my steak and won't see it happen. Nobody can fault you for taking a profit when so few people profit in this game anyway. If someone does criticize you then they probably got lucky a few times but they usually take big hits sooner or later. I dont take big winners or losers and my winning average is probably around 65% for 2 full points and more for my winning trades because I will accept less when necessary. But I always let the individual trader manage his own trade his way. I can only guide people I can't trade it for them.
Gary
Also I don't own stocks but Dan Zanger has proven that it can pay off to trade stocks.
Greetings,
Well said Gary,I hear it always that "you gotta let winners run",thats easy to say when price has doubled.
I'm happy to pick up a profit no matter how small.Warren Buffett's quote"How to make money?don't lose it!"Simple and to the point.
I am beginning to incorporate your ideas,also moving to the ES from the YM,thanks again for the thread.
cordially Tom
Quote from belavia:
...Also a question for you and Romik, do you find the volatility in the ES enough to trade full time, or is this just supplementary income?
Thanks
Hi Belavia,
What you need to ask yourself is this. Do I have a system that can generate at least 1 point a day on average over and over and over, because that is all that you would require, just 1 NET point per day. Stop thinking small, that is the key here as well as having the ability to gain that 1 net point. At the moment what is your capital? That is another question. Say, it is $5,000.00, which is about average for most starting out in futures. That would mean that you can trade up-to 10 contracts ES, but that is too much risk IMO, unless you DO have that 1 net point system. BTW, 1 NET point system is not achievable through taking lots of trades, the commission will eat up your net point. so the bottom line is identifying a strong move and taking ONLY strong possibility trades, none of the 'I hope it will and not having enough justification for an entry, blah blah blah'...
Anyway, getting back to position size. 10 lots would be risky as a novice trader you WILL make mistakes and you WILL lose. The point of losing is to train your mind to never start believing that you were right making an entry at a certain level and then when price reverses on you, you still believe it's going to go your way and you end up holding on to a loser. And when that loser is 5 points down (assume your predetermined stop was 2 points), then you are down $2,500.00 or 50% of your trading capital! You don't want that so ,=my advice would be to start with 1 lot=small cash gains ("supplementary income"), but if you do end up holding on to a loser for even 8-9 points and getting a margin call and get it closed, in that case you would be down $450.00 or 9% of your capital, which is NOT good, but not as bad as 50% in a 10 lot scenario.
So I hope you understand, that whether you will make a living or simply get supplementary income from trading ES (one of the most liquid instruments) depends on your capitalisation. I am not referring to the insides of the actual success, just to lack of range at certain times.
Don't forget, if you can show investors that you can generate 240 net points per year, you will have many people that would want to give you their money.
All you need now is to develop a system, that would either identify large moves when they do happen and you would get 5 points or a system that would provide you with 1 point per day on average, mine is the latter.
All the best!
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