S/R Emini Journal

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Quote from JimmyJam:

yeah, my days of bottom-picking are soooo over!

what i also am not very good at is determining when a move is going to go for 4 pts as compared to 2 pts. i have some theories and i'm working on it, but it is still in the toddler stages.

later,

jj
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That's why I have developed hard and fast entry and exit rules based on my indicators. If it says to stay in, I stay in. If it says to exit, I exit.

That's it.
 
In the words of John Cleese, "And now for something completely different."

I like to watch movies during the lunchtime doldrums and let me just say that if you haven't seen The Last Sumurai, you are missing out.

How I haven't seen this before today is beyond me but what a flick. Don't let Tom Cruise's latest vacation from reality fool you, this is a fantastic movie.
 
Well I am finally back home. Do we have any newly minted millionaires in here today? It looks like I was stuck in Groundhog day or something. Maybe we should have gotten Franz' staff to push the market 20 or 30 extra points...
 
Here are my numbers for tomorrow. I will finally get to trade some tomorrow. I am hoping that we finally see that bounce everybody is counting on.

Long 1247.75-1251.24

Short 1234.00-1230.00

Maybe we can finally bust through one of these areas in the morning. Today looked just like yesterday almost like they are getting ready for an FOMC meeting or something.

Have a good trading day,
Gary
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

Blamo!

I stretched my stop and got busted! (easy come, easy go - using the same technique that brought me the money lost it).

So what's the moral of this story?

Divergence trading gives you 50/50 returns, you have to use Martingale position sizing hoopla (so that's why Romik was asking about that) or a "no stop", stretch and average type of MM to make it work.

The TI manual and cd's along with all of my divergence trading paraphanelia are official going into the trading museum under random walk with a subheading of fooled by randomness.

Later,

Jimmy
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That is not a great example of a divergence though on your chart Jimmy, if you want to increase your odds, you have to ONLY take great signals. You made an entry based on 1 min chart, I don't quite understand what's happening with the indicators on the chart, what's blue, red, green, yellow - it looks pretty confusing to me. Also, it is a 1 min TF. Could you have perhaps seen the formation on 1 min, then check on 2 min, then 3 and perhaps taken the 5 min BLD in MACD HIST and paired with RSI higher 2nd low and used my PT1, which would have given you not 1 or 2 points, but 4-7. Check 5 min TF with MACD HIST and RSI. Divergence based trading is more complex than S/R, so actual experience is of an essence to improve the odds of success. All the best Jimmy.
 
Quote from 4re:

Are you talking about T waves or Elliott Waves?
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Quote from volente_00:

The Rules



1.KNOW YOUR DAY


When figuring out your battle plan for the day, I use this simple rule to help predict bias.

I am bullish on Tuesday's and Thursdays
I am bearish on Mon., Wed., and Friday.


This does not mean I will not short on T days or go long on MWF. It simply means I am more likely to short on MWF in trades or go long on T days trades.

Through the years, I came up with what I call T day theory.
All it really states is that if the indices are in the red on a T day, there is around a 80-85 % chance that sometime intraday they will get back to breakeven or slightly green.

Exceptions, FED meetings are on T days, they screw this theory up so I do not use it on days rate changes are announced.


On MWF I tend to short support and reshort at resistance on moves up. On T days I tend to go long at support and buy back on retracements of support.



How do I use this.
Today in my post I said I was bearish at 355 this morning.
It was for two reasons.
1 being it was a M day.
2 being it was a gap up on a M day.

Gaps above on MWF are often shorts plays for me where I look to cover when the gap fills.
Gaps below on T days are often long plays for me where I look to sell when the gap fills going up.




As of right now I am long from 260 as posted under midnight rally in this forum. I am long because I am bullish on T days and I will look to sell at 280.
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Quote from volente_00:

rule of 10 in Es.

Watch for 10 point moves and fade them.


EX from today.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.U06.E&v=s

1236-1246


1246 -1236


1241-1231


1231- 1241


1236-1246


Also look for 50% retracements within the bigger move.
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Well the method doesn't seem overcomplicated or anything and if it works for you that is great. I personally don't trust what I can't see on a chart but that's just me and the I trade. Every once in a while I do look at E waves to try an guage market direction but i have noticed that a lot of subscribers to this theory tend to not have their trend lines correct which blows the theory.

Glad you have found what works for you.

Gary
 
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