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S/R Emini Journal
- Thread starter 4re
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I think this is a chance for all you old-timers who had borrowed money in 1981 to say to yourself that rates are going back to normal now. All the inflation in the economies of the world is driven by the price increases in energy and metal, which in turn have been driven up by financial buying. Now that financial buying has mostly run it's course we should see a real down turn in the price of energy and metals, and a big down tick in inflation. If the fed keeps tightening as this is happening we will be looking at a deflationary spiral, that would require near zero interest rates. If the fed holds off we could see a normalized fed funds rates at around 2.5% for a long peroid of time
Maybe I don't keep up with this stuff as much as I ought to and it has been a while since my last Econ class, but I think that the effect of 'financial buying' on the price of crude and gasoline has been overstated.
While economic theory tends to function best in a classroom as opposed to the real world, I think that supply and demand have a bigger impact on oil prices than we give credit.
The US alone uses over 320 million gallons of gasoline EVERY DAY. That works out to about 3,700 gallons per second.
The price goes higher and we still can't get enough.
If OPEC isn't making any major changes to output in the near future, why should the price of oil come down?
While economic theory tends to function best in a classroom as opposed to the real world, I think that supply and demand have a bigger impact on oil prices than we give credit.
The US alone uses over 320 million gallons of gasoline EVERY DAY. That works out to about 3,700 gallons per second.
The price goes higher and we still can't get enough.
If OPEC isn't making any major changes to output in the near future, why should the price of oil come down?
First of all, thanks for doing this. I started reading this thread yesterday and I've already learned a lot and I'd only be on May 23rd if I hadn't jumped ahead to see if the thread was still going. I'd send you a beer if the www could handle it because I expect to benefit from your hard work, already have actually. Took a breakout long on the nq at 1544 this afternoon whereas I usually try for reversals just by watching price action and volume.
My question is about emini moving averages. The contracts expire every ninety days, so what does it mean to look at a fifty or sixty day average? Do they have a certain day that they switch data because volume drops off a lot on the current contract toward the end? I'm using IB charts but I'll probably try for something better if I keep trading.
My question is about emini moving averages. The contracts expire every ninety days, so what does it mean to look at a fifty or sixty day average? Do they have a certain day that they switch data because volume drops off a lot on the current contract toward the end? I'm using IB charts but I'll probably try for something better if I keep trading.
Quote from njones5:
First of all, thanks for doing this. I started reading this thread yesterday and I've already learned a lot and I'd only be on May 23rd if I hadn't jumped ahead to see if the thread was still going. I'd send you a beer if the www could handle it because I expect to benefit from your hard work, already have actually. Took a breakout long on the nq at 1544 this afternoon whereas I usually try for reversals just by watching price action and volume.
My question is about emini moving averages. The contracts expire every ninety days, so what does it mean to look at a fifty or sixty day average? Do they have a certain day that they switch data because volume drops off a lot on the current contract toward the end? I'm using IB charts but I'll probably try for something better if I keep trading.
njones,
Thank you, I hope that you continue to enjoy this journal. I think it is the mix of traders that comes in here that really makes it. So far we have been able to share ideas and hopefully hone our skills without any trashtalk.
Now to answer your question: I don't know the answer. I know the contracts are 90 days and then there is a rollover. When a new contract starts it is usually around 10 point difference one way or the other from the old. But within a day or so the prices actually come together. At least that is how I have seen it so far.
I will ask around and see how that average is figured though. Maybe somebody in here will know.
Welcome to the journal and I hope you stick around. Can I ask you a couple of questions. I ask everybody this.
1. What do you trade
2. What methodology do you use for your trading
4re
Regarding MAs of futures contracts, yes, the near term contracts expire every 3 months, and the vast majority of daytraders trade the near contract.
However, contracts are available for trading for up to 1 year in advance of expiration. Obviously the volume is small for the contracts other than the nearby expiration, but prices do move together for the various expirations.
Thus, your charting software will look to a full 60 days back on the contract for calculating the 60 day MA (even if that includes days when the prior contract was the primary trading contract). There won't be that much difference to your MAs though.
Most , if not all, charting services also a simulated continuous contract for charting longer periods (where the data is adjusted for the expirations) going back several years.
However, contracts are available for trading for up to 1 year in advance of expiration. Obviously the volume is small for the contracts other than the nearby expiration, but prices do move together for the various expirations.
Thus, your charting software will look to a full 60 days back on the contract for calculating the 60 day MA (even if that includes days when the prior contract was the primary trading contract). There won't be that much difference to your MAs though.
Most , if not all, charting services also a simulated continuous contract for charting longer periods (where the data is adjusted for the expirations) going back several years.
Quote from sandygray66:
Regarding MAs of futures contracts, yes, the near term contracts expire every 3 months, and the vast majority of daytraders trade the near contract.
However, contracts are available for trading for up to 1 year in advance of expiration. Obviously the volume is small for the contracts other than the nearby expiration, but prices do move together for the various expirations.
Thus, your charting software will look to a full 60 days back on the contract for calculating the 60 day MA (even if that includes days when the prior contract was the primary trading contract). There won't be that much difference to your MAs though.
Most , if not all, charting services also a simulated continuous contract for charting longer periods (where the data is adjusted for the expirations) going back several years.
Way to go Sandy, I knew somebody would know this. I often wondered the same thing.
Hey Guys,
It is rare for both the long and short numbers to fail but every once in a while they will. I hope everybody does better tomorrow. Tomorrow will be a very different kind of trading day and if you aren't used to trading meeting days I would suggest sitting out for the day.
Here are my numbers for tomorrow:
Long 1264.75 - 1268.50
Short 1246 - 1243
I gave the full range of these movements before the next S/R level. There is some wiggle room on both trades. Observe how the action is leading up to the entry or exit and if you feel the need to wiat an extra .25 or .50 point to enter you can.
Good Trading tomorrow. I don't know how much time I can be available to trade in the morning. As usual feel free to ask any questions.
4re
It is rare for both the long and short numbers to fail but every once in a while they will. I hope everybody does better tomorrow. Tomorrow will be a very different kind of trading day and if you aren't used to trading meeting days I would suggest sitting out for the day.
Here are my numbers for tomorrow:
Long 1264.75 - 1268.50
Short 1246 - 1243
I gave the full range of these movements before the next S/R level. There is some wiggle room on both trades. Observe how the action is leading up to the entry or exit and if you feel the need to wiat an extra .25 or .50 point to enter you can.
Good Trading tomorrow. I don't know how much time I can be available to trade in the morning. As usual feel free to ask any questions.
4re
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1. What do you trade
2. What methodology do you use for your trading
Now I'm only trying one nq emini at a time. I watch the qqqq and I have a list of large cap nasdaq stocks and if they and the dow are mostly going up I go long but if they're mostly red I go short. Once things stall in either direction I reverse. It works okay on high volume days but lately it just whipsaws (if you can call a single tick every few seconds a whipsaw) and stops me out in both directions because I don't wait for things to develop.
Starting tonight I'm going to set some S/R lines using candlesticks and hopefully only trade when the line is crossed on good volume and look to add an indicator or two at some point. I've bought stocks for years but usually I buy and hold them as long as they continue to have positive earnings so I didn't have much use for TA.
2. What methodology do you use for your trading
Now I'm only trying one nq emini at a time. I watch the qqqq and I have a list of large cap nasdaq stocks and if they and the dow are mostly going up I go long but if they're mostly red I go short. Once things stall in either direction I reverse. It works okay on high volume days but lately it just whipsaws (if you can call a single tick every few seconds a whipsaw) and stops me out in both directions because I don't wait for things to develop.
Starting tonight I'm going to set some S/R lines using candlesticks and hopefully only trade when the line is crossed on good volume and look to add an indicator or two at some point. I've bought stocks for years but usually I buy and hold them as long as they continue to have positive earnings so I didn't have much use for TA.
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