S/R Emini Journal

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Speaking of trends and such, here's a website I explored several months ago and found a great way of calculating ranges.

I use it when updating my spreadsheets to help me determine the potential for a nice big, fat juice breakout (like we have today and last Tues.).

It may assist in determining whether you go for 2.00 pts total on your contracts, or split-them, or just hold for the trend play ... work with it, backtest it, maybe it'll help, maybe not.

A lot of traders use a similar concept when measuring the ATR of their security(ies).

Best,

Jimmy

http://www.deltat1.com/DailyNotes/notes3.htm#Trend
 
Quote from Lamont_C:

We are butt up against the HOW from last week in both the NQ and the ES. If you think there are enough people still trading at this time of day to push price far enough past R without a lot of backing and filling, then go for it.

Otherwise, as you say, this makes a nice setup for tomorrow, particularly since the ES and NQ made higher lows on the dailies and last week's swing point high represents an important level for short-covering, new longs, and adding to long positions.
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I didn´t take it - but worked.......

I could should have seen the channel between 1283.25 and 1287.50 ....
 
Candeo,
I was not unlike you when I switched to this market from options. One thing I realized early is that this market moves extremely fast when we have a lot of players. That is one reason that picking a target and sticking with it is so important. The more time you spend with it the more you'll understand it.

I also noticed that a lot of people just go for 2 points and reverse. That really can swing the market fast. I tried several different methods that had worked for me in the past to no avail. When I noticed that S/R levels were very important in this market I started to research it. That is when I noticed that unless it is a trendy day 2 points was about all you could safely get.

A couple years back trend trading worked very well in this market but has since been changed by the 2 point guys. Not being a person to fight the market I just developed a method that worked for me.

Not saying you can't go for more, because you can but it can also be dangerous.

4re
 
Quote from 4re:

One thing, can I ask how you have traded this market? I am asking because one thing is different here than stocks is that the earlier you put your order in the higher on the stack it goes. This market is first come first serve. As soon as my buy order went in so did my sell order so I was up towards the top of the stack. I got filled the first time price pecked 1277. I do keep my finger on the flatten all button just in case it reverses and I did not get filled. I have it happen every once in a while to.
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I just started sim trading this week. I guess I cheated a little. I put in an order at 0845 cst this morning to buy at 1273 and was filled. I don’t remember what chart I looked at to figure the R was at 1272.50, I can see now that it is more like 1274.50. I put in a sell order at 1275 and got out at 1275.25. The price went up to 1277.2 and pulled back. I figured that was R so I put in an order to buy again at 1277.5 and was filled. I put in an order to sell at 1280 and was filled. After looking again at the chart my good fortune was probably due more to beginners luck than good management.

4re these are trading all night apparently, the TOS charts are showing prices for them. I would think that your entry prices would be best selected in the AM. Do you consider my second trade to not be justified? I would be interested in hearing your comments on what I did.
 
I don't really see that channel, can you show it. Of course, I can see it now! :D

I didn't take the trade either. I always get burned in the last hour of trading and didn't think it'd go up into the close. Perhaps I should have let the chart decide for me. With so little overhead resistance, 3 pts would have been easy. I had a limit for 1283.75, it wouldn't have even set off a 0.25 stop loss! :mad:

Still, I'm improving my discipline. Before, I would have jumped on the trade for fearing of "missing out". Oh well. Tomorrow's another day. Messed up the charts for an easy pop for tomorrow.

Quote from hpeganz:

I didn´t take it - but worked.......

I could should have seen the channel between 1283.25 and 1287.50 ....
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For tomorrow, I can see a possible long target for 1292.50-1294.50. But short target??? In my eyes, the rise today was very orderly with few gaps. Will be interested to see 4RE's take.
 
Porgie,

Kiss of death is when sup / res / "trendline" is penetrated and then the the price returns to "kiss" it from the other side, fails to break through, then continues in the initial direction. Basically support becomes resistance or vice versa. Test is a more prosaic word for it (although test encompasses several other scenarios as well).

This is a fairly poor example ...
 

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