Quote from 4re:
My favortie reversal technique is the candle popping out of the Bollinger Bands. It is simple to do and to show. I have found it to be very accurate on range days. It usually works better on 3 - 5 minute charts. I can show you examples if you want. There was only one of these today.
Have a good weekend,
4re
Gotta say....most of the time I come on ET is for entertainment value. Most of the Journals on here IMHO are useless. But....I came across yours and have to say....its great. I have been trading since 92 started out in equities and switched over to futures in 2002 after us equity guys got decimalized. Anyways...I trade mostly stock index futures and some fixed income at times. Not sure if my thinking fits in with you guys, but if its cool with you would like to chime in at times.
My style is keep it as basic as I can and try not to over analyze. I basically use daily charts to come up with S/R for big levels.(I use candlesticks). I tend to be a fader and look to get short into resistance/ long at support, especially the FIRST time these areas are hit. If they hold I then load in as the trade works. Not so easy to add on recently with the volatility and whipsaw going on.
Anyways....I got to admit over the years I have had a tough time buying at resistance /selling at suppport. But....I agree bigtime with you if the mkt hits resistance, then returns later its probably a better chance of a breakout.(the more times it hits, the longer it will fly when it does break) I use 15 min charts during the day (used to use 5 min...but too much noise). When I do decide to switch over to the breakout side (which is not so often), I find it best when the price has hit resistance 2-3 times, because when it does break it usually flies.
You probably mentioned some of these questions already, but was interested:
How much profit are you looking for when you get a breakout? (I think you mentioned 2 points or so), and when it does break, how much room do you give it if it heads back the other way? (did you adjust much during the insane moves end of last week into this week?)
Do you adjust position size?
ex...the other day the overnight low was 1246.75......mkt got down there for the first time during the pit session and I put on larger postion on the long side.....I felt the risk reward at that time was much more in my favor then if it was the 2nd-3rd time during the pit session that it was hit. I most likely would have used half pos size if that was the case.
Anyways...keep up the good work....
