S/R Emini Journal
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Hello Gents and Lady,
I took the early drop for 2 and ran some errands ... missing the huge upmove (of course
), but sometimes it just can't be helped, and tomorrow I have a dental appt. etc., (so I'll come by late, if at all) and now I'm waiting to see what this baby wants to do.I have a SLM (Sell Stop Limit) in at 1268.50, because I say it drops back into the abyss, but we'll just have to see. [that's previous resistance, look left, see? - it either holds or it doesn't, no inbetweenies]
Hey Lamont, what'chu talk'in about?
Best,
Jim
P.S. I would say there is a not inconsiderable amount of luck involved with divergence trading, but S/R, as I'm practicing while peering over 4re's shoulder is as Logical as 2+2=4, if it doesn't want to go up, it will go down, if it doesn't want to go down it will go up, the Law of Gravity, Price Action according to Market Auction Theory, etc.
This game definitely requires a certain amount of patience ... you just have to stalk this sucker and wait!
So while I'm waiting.
What's the probability of getting 2 pts in a day (=>70-75%), right?
Now, what's the probability of getting 10 pts in a week (=>85-90%), right?
Tell me what you think ...
Jim
So while I'm waiting.
What's the probability of getting 2 pts in a day (=>70-75%), right?
Now, what's the probability of getting 10 pts in a week (=>85-90%), right?
Tell me what you think ...
Jim
I am not sure exactly what you are asking here but I would say (and it is only a guess at this point) that it is safe to say that I average 2 points a day 4 of the 5 days a week. The problem I have with figuring this is:
1. if I have a busted trade and lose 2 points, most of the time I will come back to even money in a second trade.
2. Somedays like today I only took 1 point.
3. Somedays I take 3
So it is hard for me to figure, hope that helps though
just so's you know this is pretty much what i did
, I got a signal on the smaller time frame, so discipline said I could take it (side note: if I trade by intuition, I'll be on skid roe in matter of months - OBVIOUSLY)I still don't think it goes higher (look at those bulls fight to get past previous highs - resistance, if it falls back down, my sell at stop kicks in and i take the reverse trade, if it continues higher, i'll take my 2X2 and call it a fun day.
That's it, I'm out.
***
What I'm trying to say 4re, is that haveing 10 pts per week as your goal makes uh, more sense, to me than just 2 pts per day, this way you can take more than 1 setup per day, and/or you can extend the trade for mor than 2 pts.
***
Best,
Jimmy
The main problem I would have had going short at 1270 at this is that it is in the middle of my channel 1268 - 1272 (which actually goes up to 1274, I was leaving some wiggle room). And we were in at least a short term divergence on th live S&P index. Moving averages had 20 on top of 60 day. I would only have gone short there if you are going to hold for a while and could tolerate a wide stop loss. IMHO.
Cheers,
4re
BTW, I didn't take the long either. I am flat for the day.
2 pts per day vs. 10 pts per week - see what i'm say'in?
1) i think 10 pts per week is "doable", because of the ranginess/multiple setups on any given day that the markets will give you. AND you have a whole week to "work with"
2) i don't think 2 pts per day, consistently, is doable (unless you're Franz, of course
). i'm serious folks i think this is a winning money management strategy, please chime in with your 2ct regarding this (if you wanna).best,
Jim
BTW, I don't expect anyone to actually take my market calls, I just want to keep re-inforcing the concepts of S/R, until you're always looking left and making an informed decision in regards to potential market behavior, sans indicators - although we do all have our favorites ...
Hey 4RE,
Thanks for the log, I'm enjoying seeing how another trader runs things. A couple of questions:
1. Do you have to watch the system or can you set it mechanically? I took a look at the S and R for today. If I had mechanically traded it, I would have been stopped out. What do you look for (as in a reversal) that tells you to get out with a smaller gain than you originally thought?
2. I see a lot of resistance at 1275, does everyone agree? Would you put in a buy stop at 1276 tomorrow if we closed at around the current level 1272?
Thanks again.
pkts
Thanks for the log, I'm enjoying seeing how another trader runs things. A couple of questions:
1. Do you have to watch the system or can you set it mechanically? I took a look at the S and R for today. If I had mechanically traded it, I would have been stopped out. What do you look for (as in a reversal) that tells you to get out with a smaller gain than you originally thought?
2. I see a lot of resistance at 1275, does everyone agree? Would you put in a buy stop at 1276 tomorrow if we closed at around the current level 1272?
Thanks again.
pkts
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