S/R Emini Journal
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That is why I have not responded to Saico as of now. I also think we are going to be looking farther out. The last chart I uploaded was the daily chart. Man it does not look good for the bulls right now. I think tomorrows trade is going to take some thinking. I see some very good possibilities though. I may have to wait until we get a little closer to open in the morning. That also sheds some light one things a lot of times.
any of you ex TI guys still monitor Franz. I was looking at Dave's chatroom while ago and he was telling people to listen to Franz' voice the next couple of days and see if there is a difference. I would like to know what is going on with him.
I am not trying to bash him or TI but still curious. It looks like they might get what they deserve for lying.
I am not trying to bash him or TI but still curious. It looks like they might get what they deserve for lying.
LOL, it seems my stupidity always seems to come in a hurry. It really looks to me like a continuation to the downside but the way I trade I don't have to care whether we go up or down. I try to cover both directions and let the market tell me what it wants to do. Looking at the daily candle it is hard to believe I made my money on the long side today.
Here is what I am seeing for tomorrow. This may change depending on trading through the night but I think I have an alternate long trade just in case.
Long 1253 - LOD monday @ 1255.75
Short 1246.25 which is .5 below LOD today to I don't really know
Alt long 1260 to the linear regression line which is in yellow marked with an arrow at 1263.75
Note: the LOD on monday is a big needle bottom candle. Usually the needle candles are not that significant on pullback like this when we are setting new lows but I will still consider this as it gives me more than 2 points of movement.
Long 1253 - LOD monday @ 1255.75
Short 1246.25 which is .5 below LOD today to I don't really know
Alt long 1260 to the linear regression line which is in yellow marked with an arrow at 1263.75
Note: the LOD on monday is a big needle bottom candle. Usually the needle candles are not that significant on pullback like this when we are setting new lows but I will still consider this as it gives me more than 2 points of movement.
I'm looking at a variety of charts and we could see a larger sell-off before a bottom. The number of shorts and people going to cash in their mutual funds is now increasing. It has been over the last three trading days. We are only very oversold on short term levels and on the medium term levels. If we do have a large sell-off tomorrow, medium term charts will become oversold also, and should provide a base to shoot higher. On occasion oversold levels extend, but there is a lot of fuel on the short side and in money markets for a melt-up to continue. The large institutions will want to keep the market low to accumulate more stock at a lower price before buying the market higher. This would mean a couple more days of churning at this level.
I got this from a guy on Raging Bull that is very good at calling the markets. Though you guys might like it.
I got this from a guy on Raging Bull that is very good at calling the markets. Though you guys might like it.
I'm on the simulator until Tuesday. I've been having problems trading the open, but I have been successful battling back to my 2 point daily goal.
Quote from JimmyJam:
Did ET just do a "brain freeze" or what?
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Lamont_C
Overtrading is definitely something that "I" have to look at and be aware of. It's just that I believe the market offers many opportunities to make profitable trades on an intra-day basis (this MAY or MAYNOT be true). If it's a criticism, I think it's a good one and I'll definitely take it to heart (kinda like tell'in a baller, "pick your shots") when he's (or she) is making poor shoot selection.
Lamont_C
Yeah, I ditched the MAs when I realized that by looking left I could find previous defined points of Support/Resistance (so far, working like a charm). But I use Quotetracker, and it only backfills for 10 trading days, which is why yesterday I couldn't find the bottom (oh yeah, and also, there's wasn't one, you had to go back to the previous year!).
BTW, K-Rock around?, I hope he's getting some of this action!
4re
You appear to be using multi-day probability. (If you have a method that delivers 75 to 80 percent of the time on any given day, and the method doesn't deliver one day, the following day it has a higher probability - 100+ percent - of delivering.)
Is that correct?
What does your records/backtesting show?
If so, this is the first time that I've heard of it, and it sounds like a very powerful concept ...
Best,
Jimmy
I try to avoid could, should, would, if and focus on data instead: volume of advancers, volume of decliners, new lows (now), new highs (at "tops").
Volume of decliners has been slacking off but the volume of advancers has not yet gained the upper hand. New lows have also been tapering off. And, as I pointed out earlier, there was little buying interest at the end of the day today.
So while a selloff is always a possibility, a far more effective psychological gambit is to bounce off S and get people all excited, then pull the rug out from under them, providing a catalyst for that selloff they want which will provide those lower prices.
But who the hell knows?
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