S/R Emini Journal
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hope all did well today.....beautiful all day sell.......right?
Wow guys looks like I missed a GREAT trading day. Reading through the post for the day I can see that most of you stayed on the right side of the market. Way to go. For the others the lure of fading a trend market is very strong. I would like for you guys to try to remember that you can't let your thoughts get in the way of what the charts are saying to you. The charts were screaming short before 8:00 ET and never quit. Even the lunchtime reversal was weak at best.
I am just saying this because I want everybody to make money here. I hope you guys make it back with interest tomorrow.
Gary
I am just saying this because I want everybody to make money here. I hope you guys make it back with interest tomorrow.
Gary
<i>The trend is your friend 'til the end</i>... and the end of a trend is often well beyond solvency of emini fade traders.
If they keep selling off tomorrow, please resist the urge to buy and keep selling into any decline.
ES 1308 on the Sep contract is a critical level; roughly 1319 in the Dec (Z) contract. If they tap that one and cannot break & hold above, 1275 then < 1250 would logically be next.
If they keep selling off tomorrow, please resist the urge to buy and keep selling into any decline.
ES 1308 on the Sep contract is a critical level; roughly 1319 in the Dec (Z) contract. If they tap that one and cannot break & hold above, 1275 then < 1250 would logically be next.
Some days the chasers win, some days the faders win, the key is to keep your losses small til your day comes.
You keep asking whether this is safe and/or that is a safe pattern. The only safe thing is your stop, that should be your 100% guarantee not to lose more than you can afford. "Engrave" it in your mind, prior to starting to trade real money. Do you think it was easy to let go of 4 contracts @ $4k+ loss, nope it wasn't, I am not a super trader, I am not even a great trader, so how can I tell you whether this was a safe play? I can not. I hope you undersatnd where I am coming from.
But, to answer your question partially I can say the following, I simply saw a possibility of it happening and happened to be right.
Here are some clues:
1. ES was trading at the top of the channel (yellow line);
2. An indication of possible target upon a pullback was determined by the channel's support horizontal (blue line) and of course 20MA (orange line), the furthest target would have been ~1296 range, wider channel's support horizontal (green line);
4. ES did not quite breakout of the triangle that we have been seeing previously (Volente pointed it out I believe);
5. We still have a bearish divergence (main reason for my short position at the time) in MACD's histogram (yellow line horizontal over MACD has been declining, price has been climbing resulting in the divergence;
6. Double top in CCI (almost) and a recent bearish divergence as well from mid August;
7. 1316.50 created a double (treble) top;
8. Whenever a majority of posters are bullish, the opposite has a tendency of taking place;
9. Gut feeling
What's more interesting is the outcome of yet another consolidation frame, from the looks of things between the Green and the Yellow horizontals.
Hope that clears it up a little.
Today was a good learning lesson for us all.
Here is what I believe.
If your systems produced ANY long signals today you will have problems in the long term trading the ES consistently. In which case you need to go back and rethink your approach.
The trend was very clearly down all day. My system produced ONLY short signals, not even close to a long signal.
Fading the trend is not profitable over the long term. Used to do it for many years, but I saw the reality of daytrading the ES profitably.
Good luck to all.
Anyone trading Dec since roll over is near ?
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