S & P

[padutrader]

I have

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So, obviously S&P like oil, is just smashing thru support levels whether they are horizontal lines or trendlines or moving averages. No discrimination going on here. I had posted here a similar chart to this one a few weeks ago and oh boy... I'm not going to talk about corona virus or black swan events because, like everything else, this too gets priced in to the market and shall pass. Technically we are in a Bear Market and a few things to remember is when trends reverse they can retrace 50%. Bear markets on average I believe fall about 33% and the last two bear markets (2000, 2008) from peak -to- trough were close to 50% respectively, give or take. Certainly there can be big up days and up weeks in a Bear market (pull backs, reversion to means) just like there are down times in a Bull Market but, make no mistake, this is what a Reversal looks like. From its recent peak, 50% on the S&P would bring us very close to the peaks of 2000 and 2008. The next support I see is at around 2300 and 2130 give or take. I'd like to note that momentum on a weekly time frame , which is what I have here, has not even gone negative yet. This is just all the positive momentum coming out so far. Even tho the market broke the 200 ema and trendline I outlined, it could catch a bounce here at the current levels but ultimately I think lower and so far it's been nothing short of fast and furious.

I have been a watcher of markets since I was 14 years old, 1956 born, and I bought my first share sometime 1990,but in all these years I have never seen anything which has threatened to stop all economic and consumer activity.

somebody did forecast that the end of the world would take place in 2020.

when fundamentals are so bad can technicals be far behind.

if I was to read the chart only I would say that we should head to ATH from somewhere around here only because technically there is no reversal WITHOUT THE FORMATION OF A LOWER HIGH.

if you see any chart on any time frame, the real selling always comes once the lower high forms.

we are already in panic mode, so even the slightest bit of 'good' news will trigger an explosive up move.
stock markets sometimes consider the cessation of bad news as good news.

also this down move technically is just filling all the gaps the market made on the up move which consisted of all up bars only.

but the elephant in the room is that the market has got the most bearish fundamentals that I have ever seen in 33 years.

but the market may bet that it can only get better from here, and I have seen the market use this seemingly absurd ,but logical, reasoning, to begin an up move.