S&P various corrections and bear markets, which is similar?

[shortie]

Which correction/bear market from below the current market will be most similar to?

Year Months Top Bottom %Drop
1997 Feb-May 818 734 10%
1998 July-Sep 1191 940 21%
2000 Aug-Mar 1530 1081 29%
2001 May-Sep 1316 945 27%
2002 Mar-Jul 1174 776 34%
2004 Mar-Aug 1163 1061 9%
2005 Mar-Apr 1229 1136 9%
2005 Sep-Oct 1242 1168 6%


2006 May-? 1327 1220? 8%?

charts covering the above intervals are below.
http://tinyurl.com/md84z
http://tinyurl.com/mrrj2
http://tinyurl.com/mo676
http://tinyurl.com/lknkd

 

[shortie]

for some reasons the urls don't work if I click on them. but they do work if copy/pasted into a browser

 

[nazzdack]

The correct answer is (i), 1974

 

[patoo]

Quote from nazzdack:

The correct answer is (i), 1974

Oh B.S. !

The owner of IBD, William O'Neil, said in a seminar that 1974 was like the depression. Money had moved out of the stock market into everything else.

We may take another leg down like 1998, but I doubt it.

Also, the monthly trend is up now. So, the 2000, 2001, 2002 dips don't count.

I am wishing for a repeat Oct 2005.

 

[shortie]

1974 looks very impressive: 50% drop from the peak in the beginning of 1973. Looks similar to 2000-02 bear market. Interestingly, both preceded by very sharp growth which we don't have now.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/spx1960.html

 

[FuturesTrader71]

Quote from shortie:

1974 looks very impressive: 50% drop from the peak in the beginning of 1973. Looks similar to 2000-02 bear market. Interestingly, both preceded by very sharp growth which we don't have now.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/spx1960.html

Consider what that chart will look like if adjusted to the US$ index or to the price of gold. I think that provides a more accurate perspective.

Any thoughts?

 

[shortie]

I see that S&P/Gold lost ~50% during 2000-02 bear market versus ~40% during just one month in 2006. this is pretty amazing stuff! not sure what should be "the correct denomination" of S&P, though.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX:$GOLD&p=W&st=2000-01-01&en=2003-01-01&i=t01649878384&r=2642

 

[shortie]

**correction** ~40% drop over the last year, not last month. still very impressive chart!

sorry, url does not work again. i will try again

stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX:$GOLD&p=W&st=2004-01-01&en=2007-01-01&i=t52272415320&r=8823

 

[shortie]

i think this leg down wil be way over 10% when all is said and done. if one looks at vix change during jun-15 rally, the drop in volatility was extremely high. for a sustainalble rally one would like to see more fear in the market.

 

[shortie]

could the correction be over?

<<
MARK HULBERT
'9-to-1 up' days could presage market rise
Commentary: June saw technical indicator of higher prices
E-mail | Print | RSS Feed | Disable live quotes
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Jul 4, 2006

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Here's something more to celebrate this July 4th holiday:
A rare technical formation occurred in the stock market in June that, far more often than not in the past, has heralded higher stock prices over the subsequent six months.
The particular formation is referred to as a "Nine To One Up Day." It refers to the volume of all NYSE-listed stocks that go up on a given day, expressed as a percentage of the total volume of all stocks that rose or fell on that day. On a day when rising stocks' volume is the same as declining stocks' volume, for example, this ratio would be exactly 50%.
A "Nine To One Up Day" occurs when this ratio is 90% or higher. According to Martin Zweig, who helped to develop this indicator several decades ago, such a huge imbalance of up volume over down volume "is a significant sign of positive momentum. In other words, when daily up volume leads down volume by a ratio of 9-to-1 or more, that tends to be an important signal for stocks." The quotation comes from Zweig's 1986 book, "Winning on Wall Street." ....>>

http://tinyurl.com/j5h2u