S&P Testing 90-day high 3240 -- your thoughts?

KCalhoun

KCalhoun

It's been quite a run. Note 2 recent doji wed/fri indicating recent uncertainty.. thoughts?

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We will likely gap up Monday as the uk vaccine news is due. By mid to end of the week we may start going down again. Influence to either direction will be from vaccine news or states going retrograde to lockdown path. Expect uncertainty to continue.
 
I think earnings, particularly the forward guidance will provide market direction until around September. Some think the Fed intervention means that earnings and valuations will never matter again. I suspect that not to be the case.
 
ET180 said:
I think earnings, particularly the forward guidance will provide market direction until around September. Some think the Fed intervention means that earnings and valuations will never matter again. I suspect that not to be the case.
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Good point re earnings, at some point you'd expect it to matter despite fed pump
 
KCalhoun said:
It's been quite a run. Note 2 recent doji wed/fri indicating recent uncertainty.. thoughts?

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Consolidation or distribution, that is the question on my mind. Stimulous versus valuation and earnings performance as well.

For now, my trading will be focused on intraday. If I can get positioned well with a multiple intraday, I might carry some deltas overnight for a continuation try.
 
Here is the thing about earnings - many companies are not giving forward guidance or only one quarter out. Why is that? :rolleyes:

Just ... don't fight The Fed.

Though - one of these days Alice. Just not today or tomorrow.

PS: speaking of Fed - here is their CV19 page which looks uggggly currently. Note especially at the bottom right - Real Disposable Personal Income:

https://research.stlouisfed.org/dashboard/49765
 
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Recent action is of "3-stars" (also a "matched high" with June high)... Following a rally, calls into question the continuance of the up side move.

In prior years I'd be willing to call this "3-stars (historically a rather rare and powerful reversal signal)... a widow and orphans short". Then again... perhaps "nothing means anything except money pumping" in a world of nuclear stimulus.
 
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