S & P stats ?

uptik
I think crable was really ahead at his time in the late eigthies. this stuff is not ahead now i guess ... but who knows


peace
 
Quote from man:

if that data is any value. do not forget that you did not ask whether a day was an up or a down day but just whether it opened and closed compared to the previous close. and you do not have an idea of the magnitude of the moves. thus you could be right on the hit ratio and die out with huge losses compared to small winners ...

do not overestimate these figures.


peace
More...

Thank-you for the caution and you make some very timely points- I will consider myself adequately warned:(
 
there is a stat that also says that whatever direction the SP market takes between 1:00 - 1:30pm EST is the direction of where the market will close at 4:15pm EST. unfortunately, this correlation is only about 61% and does not take into account the 'size' of the move. so as in the beforementioned example, being right 61% of the time is great, but the losses could easily outweight the gains over time if proper money management and stops are not implemented.

Pete
 
I am often amazed at how many things some of you consider in your trading.

I only consider what has happened in terms of price action just before the market opened, and what's happening from 9:30 to 3:45 (sometimes later if in a position into the close) - that's it.

After all, the price is a reflection of everyone's opinions at the moment.

So far my narrow sightedness has paid off handsomely and it appears with a lot less work.

I guess since I consider none of the other stuff I have time to read all this stuff.
 
It really depends on the data set you use... also the market condition.

If you consider the whole, there should be more up days like 60/40. But... based on points moved, it should be 55/45
 
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